Tesla 2023

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Tech Earnings
Earnings reports from tech giants Tesla and Netflix disappointed yesterday. Tesla Inc. shares dropped in early trading after the carmaker warned of more hits to its already-shrinking profitability. CEO Elon Musk said Tesla will have to keep lowering the prices of its electric vehicles if interest rates continue to rise. Months of markdowns have already taken a toll on automotive gross margin, which fell to a four-year low in the second quarter. Similarly, Netflix Inc. projected third-quarter revenue fell short of Wall Street estimates, suggesting a crackdown on password sharing and a new advertising tier aren’t yet delivering the sales growth analysts anticipated. Shares were down as much as 10% to $430.41 in extended trading late Wednesday.

Maybe.
 
the big bomb will go off is NVDA 11 billion sales target, huang hyped that last time, from his normal 7-8 billion range.
 
SunTrader said:
Coinciding with deceleration, then dropping of gross margins.
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Maybe, although I doubt it. Tesla's numbers are stellar. Margins, which you like to focus on, are still the highest in the industry (yes, other than Ferrari).

I think it's just more of an opportunity to fluff the price (exuberance) and sell on day of for a nice profit. Share price at Q3 will beat Q2 (peaked at 299) and will also drop on or close to reporting date.
 
VicBee said:
Maybe, although I doubt it. Tesla's numbers are stellar. Margins, which you like to focus on, are still the highest in the industry (yes, other than Ferrari).

I think it's just more of an opportunity to fluff the price (exuberance) and sell on day of for a nice profit. Share price at Q3 will beat Q2 (peaked at 299) and will also drop on or close to reporting date.
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You ought to know by now Tesla is compared to ... Tesla. Actually every company is mostly compared to their past history.

Enuf said, once again Koolaid drinkers don't want to hear it.
 
SunTrader said:
You ought to know by now Tesla is compared to ... Tesla. Actually every company is mostly compared to their past history.

Enuf said, once again Koolaid drinkers don't want to hear it.
More...
I don't know what you mean. For a couple years you compared F and GM to Tesla to justify a bearish call, then when that proved wrong you spinned margin as the key to a car manufacturer valuation but, high or low volume sales, Tesla margins are still higher than everyone so now you decide that Tesla is judged on Tesla performance, not against competitors, not margin, just Tesla versus Tesla? What does that even mean when the company outperformed all its quarterly projections? Can't you just accept that share price may not necessarily be a reflection of performance but simply of short term speculation?

I called 300 this week, got 299, and now it's down to 260... Are you gonna call TSLA at $5? Musk warned of a slow Q3 due to factory upgrades. I'm still calling 300 by Q3.
 
Anyone long TSLA really needs to be comfortable with high volume sales at lower margins as a potential for achieving the overall mission.

This then becomes a bet on FSD and model expansion and manufacturing efficiencies.

There is potential for some nice drivers for Q3 and beyond
- follow any model 3 factory downtime and start up for update
-HW4 updaters (I am looking to do so)
-CT though this is likely small and will grow a lot

It is tough to model CT without model descriptions and pricing. It needs costs broken down by Munro like figures to compare proprietary stainless and other unique features to traditional auto.

But I'm not gonna give Munro my truck!
 
VicBee said:
I don't know what you mean. For a couple years you compared F and GM to Tesla to justify a bearish call, then when that proved wrong you spinned margin as the key to a car manufacturer valuation but, high or low volume sales, Tesla margins are still higher than everyone so now you decide that Tesla is judged on Tesla performance, not against competitors, not margin, just Tesla versus Tesla? What does that even mean when the company outperformed all its quarterly projections? Can't you just accept that share price may not necessarily be a reflection of performance but simply of short term speculation?

I called 300 this week, got 299, and now it's down to 260... Are you gonna call TSLA at $5? Musk warned of a slow Q3 due to factory upgrades. I'm still calling 300 by Q3.
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You compared TSLA to F and GM (and do so every chance you can) and said it was doing better so I posted charts that, at the time, showed Tesla was down a much greater percentage. It recovered and moved a greater percentage higher than other two.

TSLA is a higher beta stock so it goes up AND down a greater percent. Obviously to most.

For the upteempth time margins are what matter. And to satisfy (which I know you will forget and spin the other way around) TSLA has higher margins than F, GM, yada yada.

But Wall Street cares about what have you done for me lately, and what you will likely do in the future, unless things dramatically change. Often the change is ... lower.

Not saying TSLA's margins are likely to change dramatically lower in the future. Just that currently the trend direction is down and a trend stays the same until it doesn't.
 
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(MorningBrew) yesterday's email newsletter:-

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Tesla’s price cuts are squeezing its margins. Tesla’s strategy of dropping car prices has led to more sales, and the electric vehicle-maker’s profit grew 20% last quarter. But investors were rattled by the company’s profit margin getting smaller because of those same slashed prices, especially since Elon Musk said on a call with analysts that if macroeconomic conditions are “not stable,” prices might need to go even lower. Musk also noted that production would be down next quarter because of factory upgrades but said it wouldn’t stop the company from meeting its delivery goals for the year.
 
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