Tentative calling of market top for the next few months?

[yc47ib]

Yes, I know, we are in the strong season for general for the stock market. Yes, calling top is a fool's game. But I am starting to scale in short positions on SPY and am willing to add to it at the SPY 4800-5000ish levels, three times, to a short position one third of my portfolio size, starting small, using the daily bar to trade. Target, SPY 4000-3800ish.

It will be my hedge to the other 30% of my portfolio, cryptos, as they say, when the stock market drops, the crypto market will drop too. Hopefully this time, if the stock market has a slower bleed, the crypto market will actually melt up. Will see and come back next June to this thread.

 

[longandshort]

What’s the catalyst for a drop?

 

[Laissez Faire]

Why bet against seasonality and a strong trend?

If a medium/long term short trade that's worth being in materializes - you'll have enough time to enter after some confirmation anyway.

 

[tomorton]

I never short the US index values, its not worth the risk.

 

[formikatrading]

We will likely close lower next week. After that, who knows.

 

[klattermusen]

What’s the catalyst for a drop?

china will screw it up like they did with causing the virus pandemic. my guess short term by next summer; they will try to take taiwan by force.

 

[comagnum]

We all know retail is wildly bullish, how about the whales?

 

[patek643]

china will screw it up like they did with causing the virus pandemic. my guess short term by next summer; they will try to take taiwan by force.

Oh you know what the CCP is planning? Are you a commie spy?

 

[Overnight]

We all know retail is wildly bullish, how about the whales?

View attachment 270713

What that chart tells me is that we are in for another major melt-up as those shorts will have to eventually unwind by covering.

 

[longandshort]

china will screw it up like they did with causing the virus pandemic. my guess short term by next summer; they will try to take taiwan by force.

What makes you say that? Do you have an inside scoop?