Tell me why I can't grow my account to $1M in 12 years

Amahrix said:
smh...................................

The books aren't for money-making but survival guidelines...

In order for me to "MAKE MONEY"... I must first SURVIVE. That is what it is about.... survival! Not a strategy to make money.......

Did you survive deploying the information and knowledge obtained from the books of NNT? YES!
More...

The clip I just posted was about survival, also.

Here, let's try it again with a timestamp.



F Books.
 
Amahrix said:
You are looking at those who are "succeeding" with intra-day and ignoring the big pool of failures that, relative to the successes, overwhelm the distribution.
More...

What was it that you were saying about not making assumptions?

I'm taking note of the fact that there are successful day traders while trying to pay great attention to the pool of failures, in order to learn from both.

What fool would I be to ignore the successful? They are proof that I'm not 100% delusional. Maybe only 99% delusional, lol. Either way, certainly I should be trying to learn from them as well as the failures.
 
jeffbader said:
What was it that you were saying about not making assumptions?

I'm taking note of the fact that there are successful day traders while trying to pay great attention to the pool of failures, in order to learn from both.

What fool would I be to ignore the successful? They are proof that I'm not 100% delusional. Maybe only 99% delusional, lol. Either way, certainly I should be trying to learn from them as well as the failures.
More...

Fair enough. Good luck to you.
 
Amahrix said:
Fool, the books contain indispensable information for traders, investors, and all risk-takers.
More...


Empirica bled for a decade and then Spitznagel goes off on his own and hits a homer during the housing crash. Taleb is allergic to making money. Go take his class at Columbia and you'll still be broke.

Blocked.
 
Jeff, you're mission is to become a quantitative synthetic futures speculator!

You have the perfect background to do this! Just read my thread
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/index-spread-traders.335197/

and make sure you understand ALL of this stuff. And I mean all of it.

Forget the dollar cost averaging crap! That's coming straight out of the FA pitch book!

The best traders are quants and EE is the best background to have.

Chart the PREM! << Then code algos and indicators using TA concepts.

SPREAD THE INDEX FUTURES!

You have to go ALL THE WAY if you want to do this FOR REAL.

First goal is 100k.

then 200k

and so on.

How good were you paying attention in the EE math classes?
How good are your programming skills?

I know it sounds crazy (it is), but its winner take all in this game. You need to outsmart the competition!

Maybe I'm reading too much in to this EE degree, but I bet you are badass at Fourier transforms, integral calculus and probability theory. Just learn this stuff real quick.

Weiner Process
Black-Scholes
The entire Theory of Parameter Estimation!!!
(with special consideration of the implications of non-stationary parameters)
Keltner Channels
Filtrations (all kinds)
Convergence Properties of Parameter Estimators (all kinds)
Time Series Analysis

Screen Time 10000+ hours

Some light reading.

Market Wizards, Jack Schwager
Mathematical Formulas for Economists, Luderer, Bernd, Nollau, Volker, Vetters, Klaus
Mathematical statistics with applications, Dennis D. Wackerly

How much time have you got? (this is just to get you started)
 
I would say that it is very possible to grow account to 1M in 12 years. Certainly, it all depends of how much capital you have initially invested and if you have good trading strategy. With solid foundation, I find it very realistic to reach your goal
 
Joranjar said:
I would say that it is very possible to grow account to 1M in 12 years. Certainly, it all depends of how much capital you have initially invested and if you have good trading strategy. With solid foundation, I find it very realistic to reach your goal
More...
We tend to forget NPV of $1M 12 years hence is not $1M today.
 
jeffbader said:
I'm 35, a full-time salaried electrical engineer and I don't need the money. However, I don't like being an employee. My wife is self-employed and I envy her freedom to be with our children and still make a living. Also, I really don't like the mediocre returns that conventional vehicles offer. We own and manage 8 rental units and I see real-estate as our primary retirement plan. To me, the stock market is simply a means to an end.

I made my first day trade on January 10th, 2019, so I've only been at this for about 1/2 a year. From what I've gathered, this means that I'm barely scratching the surface. Because of my schedule and personality, I have concluded that day trading (for me) is preferred over swing trading. I consider holding over night to be far more stressful. Although I can imagine that I may prefer swing trading some time in the future, I'm 100% convinced that day trading lines up better with my lifestyle as it is now. Being in the Pacific time zone, I can make a few trades and still be to work at a reasonable time. For now, I'm sticking with stocks straight up - no derivatives.

When I made my first trade, I made $9. Second trade I made $568. Third trade I lost $1114 and the fourth trade I lost another $514. It was clear to me after trade #4 that I had no clue what I was doing. I then began investing in my education and I am now tailoring my own personal plan / strategy. I decided to bite the bullet and allow myself to become PDT on April 11, 2019.

Although I am not yet profitable, I can see the potential. However, it is unclear to me how to set realistic goals. When discussing actual profitability, I've heard people say "trust me, you can make a lot of money." Some say they've turned $500 into $5M (ha!). Most say it's gambling and we're all doomed to fail. From what I've endured over the last six months, it is no surprise that it is rumored that 95% of traders fail. While it is both easy and simple to click the "buy" and "sell" buttons, it is actually quite grueling, complicated, and at times exhausting to soldier through this learning curve.

One complaint I have with this entire industry is the general fog when searching for actual long-term average profit expectations. This may not matter to most people, but I already have a tolerable job. I'm looking for growth. "Trust me, you'll make more than you ever dreamed" is not good enough. I already make enough money to live on. I should only be risking that hard-earned money if there truly is a real-life potential for the reward (which I would define as consistent profit that justifies continuing to trade on a regular basis). So far, I have been unable to find proof of this potential reward, and I suspect that my own success or failure will be the only way for me to really find out for sure.

I have attached a normalized graph of my account over time. Oh, how I desperately wish that I could see this type of chart from others. It begins with my very first trade before I knew anything about the market and includes every trade that I've made since. To date, I've made 168 round-trip day trades. I generally only make between two to four round-trip trades per day. My latest discovery is that if I had restricted myself to trading only after 9:50am EST, this chart would look much better.

The purpose of this post is not to request advice (although I'm very thankful for anything offered!). Rather, as a brand new member, I'm wondering if this community is willing to convince me of what is realistically possible. I figure that if I can win 4R per month (which seems quite conservative if I'm risking an amount that would allow for 75 consecutive losses before reaching the PDT limit of $25k, which works out to be 1.33% of the portion of the account that is greater than $25k) and increase my risk each month according to my account growth, then my account would grow from $30k to $1M in about 12 years.

Am I delusional? Can anyone offer their own real-life normalized graph of account value over time?
More...
The way you ask your question is problematic.... Why you assume you can't? in 12 years you can grow your account to more then 1m if you trade with a good system and rules.
For a good edge in trading I use Bookmap software. It shows the price action in a heatmap and reveals graphically where are the big hands trading.
 
Hello @jeffbader. I hope you are doing well bud. Can you update us on your day trading journey? how is it going so far? Did you transition from tradingsim to a real account? Thanks in advance for your help!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top