But I'll be doing more sim
Don’t waste your time with sim. It isn’t reflective of any performance because you don’t know if that’s how you’d behave if your real life money was at risk.
1) either program a computer to trade on your behalf
2) trade yourself with real money (involves emotion, which we will never defeat, but must go around).
Yes, order and read ASAP.
And about survivorship bias, you said you cannot ignore the success people are having intra-day trading but you're doing exactly what the Navy did wrong and what Wald got right in their analysis.
You are looking at those who are "succeeding" with intra-day and ignoring the big pool of failures that, relative to the successes, overwhelm the distribution.
Probabilistically(perhaps, running a monte carlo simulation), you'll have some paths out of a sample of intra-day traders that have positive returns for awhile, and some even longer than awhile... means nothing. Still can be noise. But if there is an individual who intra-day trades and trades at a high frequency over a period of a decade and makes consistent returns over thousands upon thousands of trades... then I can accept that there is skill in that instance.
Don't be fooled... ya know, by.. randomness. Get it?
