Tell me why I can't grow my account to $1M in 12 years

[ironchef]

Wow, you've been trading full-time for 9 years and that's not proof that you can trade? Can you indulge me and elaborate on this? What will it take for you, personally, to achieve before you consider yourself a proven trader?

Because since 2009, the market has only gone in one direction: UP. As @dozu888 said, any "strategy" that bet with the market will have positive expectancy. Until the market changes, I have no way of knowing if I am a real trader.

Without going into too much detail, with real estate being my primary vehicle for retirement, leaving large sums of money sitting in the market is not attractive to me. Essentially, I view real estate as a superior long-term investment in terms of tax shelter, passive income and leverage (growth potential). But I really don't want to derail this forum with a real estate vs. stock market debate. I'm hoping we can just agree to disagree on this one.

We have more in common that you realized, I have real estate holdings too. And by the way, I never paper-trade or sim-trade but always tried things out with lots of very small positions.

Good luck to you.

 

[jeffbader]

Well the reason you may not be able to achieve it in 12 years is because it may take 12 years to learn how.

That is one of my primary concerns. And I want to clarify that the "1M" and "12 years" was simply an example upon which to anchor a conversation. It is the time that I'm investing that is most important to me. I want to believe that it will be worth it.

Just examine what you have learned and examine your performance in 6 months. Extrapolate that out 11 years and 6 months. Are you willing TO PAY that sort of price?

That's a tricky question. On one hand, I am totally unwilling to continue losing $6k per year for 12 years straight. I'm struggling to find the words to describe what kind of a failure of a person I would have to be to do that.

On the other hand, I can envision no amount of failure that will prevent me from continuing to try. Specifically, I've so far lost roughly half of the portion of my account that keeps me above PDT. I started with 30k and am currently around 27.5k. I've been breaking even for the last month, right? Well, what happens if my downtrend resumes and I lose another 2.5k? At that point I will stop trading live and move to a simulator. I will continue in the simulator until I have conquered whatever it was that was tripping me up. If I can prove that I am able to consistently execute in a manner that was previously lacking, then I will resume live trading from funds that will be acquired through side jobs / bonus money, etc. I will not re-fund my account from our family budget.

So I build up the 5k necessary to give another 30k account a go and I blow it down to 25k again. Well dog-gone it I still have some more learning to do.

Yeah, I could keep that up for 12 years. Would my wife let me? That's an entirely different question.

 

[Ryan81]

How many ppl out there have money they don't need? I guess you can rationalize anything ...

I do? I guess it depends both on what definitions of "needs" are, and also depends on how many assets someone has?

 

[Buy1Sell2]

You could follow the most prudent risk management and not make money. I don’t think that’s the definition of an edge.

If that is the determining factor to making money the stat provided by dozu would be greater than 1% make a living at it.

You don't have a full grasp on Prudent Risk Management.

 

[viruscore1]

I do? I guess it depends both on what definitions of "needs" are, and also depends on how many assets someone has?

True. How much do you have you don't need? Give some away, since you don't need it . Or simply burn it , use it to start a bomb fire, light a bbq ...lol Oh, you need it for investing ...

 

[Ryan81]

I already give quite a bit away to worthy causes. What do you think makes you a worthy cause?

 

[viruscore1]

I already give quite a bit away to worthy causes. What do you think makes you a worthy cause?

I never ask you to give it to me.

 

[Ryan81]

You are correct. I misread your prior post.

 

[ElCubano]

You don't have a full grasp on Prudent Risk Management.

You don’t have a full grasp on a true EDGE.

Risk management will keep you in the game to fight another day. You can do that until your money runs out. Lol.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

You don’t have a full grasp on a true EDGE.

Risk management will keep you in the game to fight another day. You can do that until your money runs out. Lol.

Read the opening posting on the Risk Management thread and you'll have a better understanding.