Tell me about your Uncle Point

[ElectricSavant]

You mean I must learn how to trade?

I have traded for 33 straight days without a losing day including weekends...what am I going to do? I do not have a clue as to why this system works and when it will stop...and I wrote the fricken thing..the forces behind it are a mystery, i just indentifed them...SO HOW THE HECK CAN I LEARN TO TRADE???

Michael B.

Quote from sgsaxton:

Sorry my last example was very unclear, let me give it another go:
When I first started trading I traded a system. It didn't take me too long to figure out that some (alot) of my trades just didn't make sense so I stated to become a little more chosey about the trades that I took. Then really frightening things started to happen. All of a sudden judgment came into the equation and along with it self doubt. If I chose a system then I have to adhear to it without wavering. If it starts to fail, I need to recognize it and come up with another system. This could cost alot of time money.

So I'm faced with a choice: do I contine trading a system which will become obsolete at some point or do I take the other road and try and learn market structure. With the Structure route, I realize it takes longer beacuse the markets are finicky and what works one day may or may not work the next. Having said that the basic principles of fear and greed remain the same and the games that are played by those who have the power to do so become familiar.

Hmmmmm. Two roads, two choices and which do you pick? The system route at least gives you consistency at the start but the discretionary gives you longevity.
Neither is right or wrong, its just a different way of doing things.

 

[sgsaxton]

Quote from ElectricSavant:

You mean I must learn how to trade?

I do not have a clue as to why this system works and when it will stop...and I wrote the fricken thing..the forces behind it are a mystery, i just indentifed them...SO HOW THE HECK CAN I LEARN TO TRADE???

Michael B.

Loook If its working for you, great, but I do suggest you try at least to understand WHY it's working because then it will allow you to make the adjustments that you need to make when it stalls.

 

[ElectricSavant]

correlations work or they do not...what can I say...What can i do? I hope when one fails another can be found..

Quote from sgsaxton:

Loook If its working for you, great, but I do suggest you try at least to understand WHY it's working because then it will allow you to make the adjustments that you need to make when it stalls.

 

[trendmomentum]

hmmm, yes, adapt one must

 

[DrawDown]

Archy,

On your chart you posted here there are only buy trades -- where are the TPs that should be showing by downward pointing triangles?

Did you not close any trades?

Were the TPs done by Limit order so they don't show up for some reason?

Get back to me - you can send me a PM if you want.

dd

 

[ElectricSavant]

When did I tell you that I closed any legs of it?

I cannot really discuss much here or by PM, so if its alright lets drop it ok?

Michael
The Archangel of Forex

Quote from DrawDown:

Archy,

On your chart you posted here there are only buy trades -- where are the TPs that should be showing by downward pointing triangles?

Did you not close any trades?

Were the TPs done by Limit order so they don't show up for some reason?

Get back to me - you can send me a PM if you want.

dd

 

[Cutten]

Quote from ElectricSavant:


My system is working and functioning and I am real scared about the day it quits working...This is bothering me to a point of laying in bed trying to come up with something to lighten the depression when it stops working..I need an ace in the hole.

I know I am sick and paranoid and I should just enjoy this period and bask in the winning....

Basking in the winning is insanity. You should be working your nuts off trying to find new edges, especially to find one that does not have a limited lifespan. Also you should be spendnig as little as you can until you have an edge that has longeivity.

 

[ElectricSavant]

Your going to give me a nervous breakdown. I do not know if my edge has a limited lifespan...I can only say that most of them do. I have no reason to believe that mine will end, but I am not a novice and neither are you cutten.

There area lot of profitable ways to trade, but they do not fit me. And there is no way Wifey will work in this full time unless I have researched and proven a system such as the one I have now. I must get a new project to start....these systems do not just fall in your lap and you start trading them immediatley.

Michael B.

Quote from Cutten:

Basking in the winning is insanity. You should be working your nuts off trying to find new edges, especially to find one that does not have a limited lifespan. Also you should be spendnig as little as you can until you have an edge that has longeivity.

 

[Cutten]

Quote from ElectricSavant:

It should be pre-determined...not discretionary...not to say that an early determination as illiquid brings out is not valid.

I just do not have a clue about these things..its not like I have traded a lot of edges...

Why should it be predetermined?

THe amount of capital you have made or lost has absolutely nothing to do with whether your current approach should be stuck with or abandoned. Let's say you had an arbitrage-operation that made 10 million per year. If you made a mistake, like trying to leg out, and lost 6 million, would you suddenly pass up a near risk-free profit in future just because you had lost beyond an arbitrary limit of capital?

You should stop trading when the relevant current and future factors involved in it no longer suggest that it's the best course of aciton for you. In some cases that may be when a system degrades, and therefore loses 15% or 50% or whatever. But in others you may make a mistake, loss that arbitraty amount, but then have great potential going forward. Giving up then would be a big mistake.

 

[ElectricSavant]

We do not make trading errors. They simply are not tolerated. I am more interested in the systems function and it drawdown. I need to learn when the arbitrage is not working any longer or is reduced enough to make it not interesting. Yes my system is a form of arbing.

Defining triggers should not be new to a traders arsenal, just as much as managing the emotion of facing a failing system and moving on.

Michael B.

Quote from Cutten:

Why should it be predetermined?

THe amount of capital you have made or lost has absolutely nothing to do with whether your current approach should be stuck with or abandoned. Let's say you had an arbitrage-operation that made 10 million per year. If you made a mistake, like trying to leg out, and lost 6 million, would you suddenly pass up a near risk-free profit in future just because you had lost beyond an arbitrary limit of capital?

You should stop trading when the relevant current and future factors involved in it no longer suggest that it's the best course of aciton for you. In some cases that may be when a system degrades, and therefore loses 15% or 50% or whatever. But in others you may make a mistake, loss that arbitraty amount, but then have great potential going forward. Giving up then would be a big mistake.