Techniques for Day Trading the ES, NQ, YM, MES, MNQ, and MYM

[Sekiyo]

Well, I think both you and PPC were right.

The price was in a DOWNTREND. But once it touched the lower channel, you sensed that it might have been the BOTTOM (which it turned out to be).


View attachment 346977

Could also be a 5335 double bottom.
With the move from 65 to 35 being a single leg,
Therefore not a downtrend but simply a reaction.

Although the reaction is bigger than the former 55-35 one, by 10 points.

But I see your point ! Could be a two legged (20pts) pullback aka. A downtrend.

I don’t buy into reactionary PA (even in an uptrend) unless it’s around support/resistance or is around previous length (30pts) in this case.

 

[schizo]

Could also be a 5335 double bottom.

The LOW up to that point was at 5325. When you say double bottom, you can't just arbitrarily attach it to any low. It must be THE low.

With the move from 65 to 35 being a single leg,
Therefore not a downtrend but simply a reaction.

That's true to a certain extent, but since price did break below the lower channel line of the uptrend, it would be safer to assume that trend reversed for the time being (until proven otherwise).

Although the reaction is bigger than the former 55-35 one, by 10 points.

Man, let me show you what both PPC and Volpri missed or don't know about (until now). So take note, 'cause I won't repeat myself.

You see, those who actually move the market KNOW about these things. It's not about THIS or THAT hypothetical reasons that might work sometimes and don't work other times. No, it's more practical, something more measurable, like the one I showed you in the chart.

 

[semperfrosty]

I am back. For a bit at least.

I want to say something about ego, emotions, and thoughts and the psychology of them as they relate to trading.

I here people say “you must lose your Ego,” “stay humble” “control your thoughts” trade without emotions..be like a machine”

First off, the market does not know if you are humble as mud pie or an egotistical bastard.

Second, you are human you cannot stop your thoughts. Your brain uses 20% if your bodies energy and IT’s job is to generate thoughts and you, nor I, can stop it from doing so. Even while we sleep it is at work. What we can learn to do is to entertain or not to entertain the thoughts it produces. We can choose to not dwell on them expecting them to soon pass much like a cloud that floats across the sky.

Third, we are humans. We cannot somehow divorce ourself from our emotions. We are not an unfeeling machine. Furthermore, the market knows nothing about what you are feeling at the moment. Nor does it care about your feelings. Your personal elation, anger, sadness doesn’t change the auction.

To sum of the above: the market doesn’t know if you are humble or egotistical. It doesn’t know what you are thinking about any given trade. Nor does it know what you are feeling.

It doesn’t even know if you are making money or losing money. You and your broker may know but not the market in general.

Furthermore, it simply doesn’t care. You are insignificant to it.

The market is composed of institutions battling it out trying to take money from each other. We retail traders just get caught the middle of all the fray.

The market is a big auction. Nobody, not even the institutions can know all the variables. Institutions can and do win and lose and do read the auction right and do read PA wrong.

Our job as retail traders is to have a system that works for us enough to extract $$$ from the market. Next, we need to learn to discern what is going on in this big auction that is in front of our eyes. Then we need to determine which side is winning bears or the bulls. The idea is to join lockstep in with the winning side and jump out when the other side shows they now have the upper hand.

As far as psychology goes we need to learn our individual weaknesses and strengths and how we can change them, better them, and capitalize on them. We have to learn how we can live with our ego, thoughts, emotions as they relate to our trading. How we can better utilize them and deal with them in such a way that they “help” us in our trading. Your mind is powerful. Thought are powerful. Emotions are powerful. Ego is powerful. None can be eliminated. Neither can they be controlled. Neither can they just simply be laid aside like a brick. But we can all learn how to live with them and manage them in such a way they become can become a (plus) in our trading.

Some of the most egotistical bastards have made boatloads of money trading and some of the most humble meek traders are still waiting for their boat to come in many years later.

Great post V!

 

[doubledoubledoublecup]

Great thread, now this is the TA thread we need.

 

[PPC]

If you were looking I had little disagreement on that FX thread with PPC where he pointed out my mistakes on my chart as he saw them. He saw a red-light. “No professional trader would go long on that fourth trade on that chart in FX thread.” That was basically what he said. However, I saw a green light to go long. And I was right and he was wrong. Wrong about market direction that is.

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...ult-to-make-money.380610/page-14#post-6008199

Dude once again, stop misquoting me!!!

A) People on this forum can read, and by intentionally misquoting others you’ll lose your credibility. Below is evidence that you’re misquoting me.

Ditto with the other things that you’ve misquoted or changed to fit your own narrative on other posts. Maybe you should start thinking about your integrity.


B) The better traders on this forum can clearly see that in your follow-up posts in the above mentioned disagreement you could not separate the trading process from the outcome. That’s why I asked you to put your ego aside,( i.e. to separate the trading process from the outcome, something that you once again showed that you're unable to do)

In summary, if (for you) that candle formation represents enough buying pressure to go against the other things, then that’s OK, as long as the people who you’re teaching can replicate it with reasonable consistency in other similar scenarios, and not just in this particular case. Even the broken clock is "right" twice a day".

Apart from that, I don’t care how people trade, as long as they don't misquote me to fit their narratives.

 

[volpri]

Thanks for the participation. What I think was the crucial mistake was simply two fold: not taking into account the larger context and perhaps not understanding the dynamics of channels.

The larger context is a bull channel. Most BO of bull channel fail. Usually within 5 bars price will head back towards or into the channel. This took a tad longer. It headed back on the 6th bar after the BO. That can happen.

Also understand broader channels and TRs can have multiple legs. You have to be aware of two-legged traps near the fringes of the channel. This was essentially a two-legged trap trapping traders that went short. Novice traders Would short that big bear bar down out of the TR thinking wow BO! They would get trapped. An experience trader would first recognize the larger context. Bull channel! He would understand inertia. He would understand the dynamics of channels i.e. that most Bo's will fail so an experienced trader will look to fade the BO’s. Finally, when a BO of a channel or TR has no good follow through bars the odds of a reversal from the BO go up. That is what happened.

You cannot just rely on support and resistance levels. They get broke a lot. You have to see “where” they are in relation to the larger context AND immediate context. Especially, the larger context.



To repeat. See the larger context was a bull channel. Markets have inertia and tend to continue doing what they are doing. They are also trying to do the opposite and stop the inertia. When it gets close to doing so (like stopping the bull channel) with that BO attempt south if FT is not evident then I have buy buy as the bull channel will likely continue.

The bears need another good follow-through after that big bear for this bull channel to convert to a bear trend. Thus becoming a successful BO south of the channel. Instead the follow through was smaller bars 3 or 4 being dojis (dojis are 1 bar TR which means bulls and bears are active.) Overlapping, smaller bars after that big bear bar through the bottom of the channel. No FT selling and bulls are buying others we would see another goodsize bear bar. Instead overlapping smaller bars. Then on the 6th bar after the BO we see decent size bull bar making a higher high than the previous bar followed by a second bull bar. This is buying pressure and the price will likely go up to at least the bottom of the channel and perhaps further to the middle or even the top (which it in fact came close to the top). This was essentially a failed bear BO of a bull channel. Odds favored …price going back up into the channel. Regardless of the resistance level PPC drew in.

Context …context is way more important than any single trade setup and way more important than nearby resistance or support levels. If a trader understands the market cycle they will be ahead reading context and looking for setups.

 

[volpri]

Dude once again, stop misquoting me!!!

A) People on this forum can read, and by intentionally misquoting others you’ll lose your credibility. Below is evidence that you’re misquoting me.


View attachment 347006



Ditto with the other things that you’ve misquoted or changed to fit your own narrative on other posts. Maybe you should start thinking about your integrity.


B) The better traders on this forum can clearly see that in your follow-up posts in the above mentioned disagreement you could not separate the trading process from the outcome. That’s why I asked you to put your ego aside,( i.e. to separate the trading process from the outcome, something that you once again showed that you're unable to do)

In summary, if (for you) that candle formation represents enough buying pressure to go against the other things, then that’s OK, as long as the people who you’re teaching can replicate it with reasonable consistency in other similar scenarios, and not just in this particular case. Even the broken clock is "right" twice a day".

Apart from that, I don’t care how people trade, as long as they don't misquote me to fit their narratives.

Actually, there was plenty of space for R:R even if price just we through the bottom of the channel. A scalper like myself would take it as R:R was actually quite good for a 3 to 4 point scalp. As it evolved it was actually a very good R:R. You might want to look at the chart in of what happened. I post it below in this forum.

Maybe you aren’t separating your Ego from the trading process! Which cannot be done entirely anyway!

I think your yellow annotations speak for themselves. It is sometimes hard to admit when one is wrong. You were simply wrong about the direction. No shame in that. Happens to all of us.

 

[volpri]

Here again is the chart showing what did in fact happen.

 

[volpri]

Gotta run. Eating out with some friends. Good trading to all including PPC.

 

[volpri]

Made a few trades this morning. Has a loss or two but recouped them and made some. May post later tonight. Just see if I have time.