I would take the higher Probability trade. That is trading the PB. See blue notes. This is bar counting. After PB first attempt is L1, second attempt to continue south is L2 or low 2. Context is strong bearish see red arrow down. L2 at MA and two 1 bar trading ranges (i.e. doji) and at MA. Odd favor continuation. L2 is the second attempt by the market to continue. That is where I would short. Closest SL has to be at 50% PB of red arrow on left for this trade and even for your trade. I show where I would have exited for a several point scalp. …green.View attachment 335399 Dear Volpi,
Thanks for your well response. You did a great favor from me. As you did mentioned in many post, the most importance thing before engaged into a trade is to define the phase of the market (trend, TR, channel) and then use the appropriate strategy. However, I usually freak out and mixed between the phase of the market.
As yesterday, when trading for us500.cash (my broker do not have e-mini only have this indies). I think that the market was in trend phase. So, for the first break out, I sell 2.5 contracts (big size in compare with my account). Then when market PB, I freak out , try to average down by 0.5 contract. Finally I got out with a small lost.
Dear Volpri,
Could you please comment in my trade? I knew my 1st entry was a bad one (way big than normal size 2.5 vs 0.5). I feel like I tried to scalp but it turn out a swing trade.The closed all entry with small loss when market goes according to plan also a bad decision. In case if it was you, which entry will you take? And when you will exit?
Thanks alot and wish you a nice day!
iYour trade SL would still be same as mine. Trades need room to work. I would have either put on a position and at increments average down more short as it moved against me see yellow markers.
Three ways to play this if averaging down. Start big and at each increment cut your adding in 1/2 of last increment size.
Or start small add same position size on each subsequent scaling in, as it moves against you.
Or start small and double up on each scale in. Then you only need a small move in your favor to make $$. It appears you waited too late to start scaling in. Then you got scared and covered way below the correct SL (yellow). The context was good for shorting. You got the direction right but didn’t use the right tactics.
If I had taken you trade but I averaged down in increments I would exit once my position renders me a scalpers profit (1 to 8 point) even if Lose or BE on my initial entry. As long as my averaged down position show the overall trade printing money.
Whatever the market doest after my exit it doesn’t matter. I have locked in a scalpers profit. I can always jump back in if need be. Greedy scalpers get scalped! A good scalpers takes what the market hands him when the taking is good. That then becomes a successful trade. Markets probe all day long in both directions searching for more transactions. Scalps can be in the money and in seconds …poof ….disappeared into thin air. I just grab em while the grabbing is good.
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