Neither 1 nor 2. Averaging down is a losing strategy if one is doing it to avoid a loss. Why? It may work then it won’t work and if one keeps adding the losses can mount. To even consider averaging down there has to be a logical reason to do so.
Look at the chart below:
View attachment 272952
When price is in a TR somewhere near 70% to 80% of BO attempts top or bottom will fail. A BO attempt is any move in the top or bottom 1/3 of the range or outside the top or bottom.
S, knowing this stat, if I am employing the trading technique of fading the edges of a range then I want a position on once price gets into the bottom or top 1/3. Why? Well look at the chart and see the BO attempts that got into the 1/3 area then that was as far as it got then price just reversed back towards the other side. I don’t want to miss those trades!
Look at bars 5:45, 5:50, 6:05, 6:10, 6:15, 6:20, 6:25,7:30, 7:35, 7:45, 7:50, 8:05, 8:10, 9:25, 9:30, 9:40, 9:45, 9:50, 9:55. In all these price price went to top or bottom 1/3 (in some cases both top and bottom) but didn’t actually BO of the top or bottom of the TR. They were failed BO attempts. Why should I miss those trades?
I know the stat of BO failure rate of 70% to 80% in a TR. So, I want a position on (any position..something on fer crying out loud…) once it gets into that 1/3 top or bottom. And if it goes against me I will add, being cognizant of the BO failure stat.
If it suddenly reverses and never makes it to the top or bottom, or out of the top or bottom, at least I will get a scalp BECAUSE I HAD A POSITION …SOME POSITION ….ON.
Look at bars 5:40 5:45 then suddenly reverses towards the top. Look at bars 6:00 thru 6:25 gets into top 1/3 then suddenly reverses. Same thing bars 8:05 and 8:10 bottom 1/3 then suddenly reverse. So, in any of those cases I am willing to take a position right off the bat…any position…but something…… then add to that position if it moves against me for a bit. I am building a bigger position betting the BO will fail. Plus my BE price and profit area when averaged down, is closer to actual PA at the moment, thus increasing the odds of getting an enough move down or up, to give me a profitable scalp. Even if I BE or lose on my first entry but make money on my latter entries.
I will scale in and ALL out when scalping in a TR. Once I get a decent profitable scalp I am going to get greedy and grab it. Why? Because we are in a TR. What happens at the top or bottom of TR’s?
I will even lock in profits this way when in a trend and just repeat over and over. I believe in taking what the market gives me. There are plenty of trading opportunities during the session. Almost any 5 minute bar can be traded and money made using different techniques.
These things said, I will also average down in the middle of a chart betting on price probes that are bouncing back and forth in TR price behavior even if not a TR.
Hope this helps.