Techniques for Day Trading the ES, NQ, YM, MES, MNQ, and MYM

kaizer said:
I suppose it is here
https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/trading-strategies/rules-for-scalping/

But, very important, here he talks about very special style, when risk is 2 times greater than reward. For this particular style very high win rate needed.
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here


Now, this is a video on scalping, but most traders should swing trade and not scalp. You need a positive Trader’s Equation, and by Trader’s Equation, what I mean is your percentage of winning trades times the size of your average win has to be greater than the percentage of your losing trades times the size of your average loss. You’re not going to be calculating that every time you put on a trade, but you have to be aware of it.

It’s difficult to structure a trade with a positive Trader’s Equation when you’re scalping because the reward is usually less than the risk, and therefore you need to win more than 70% of the time. In fact, a good scalper is going to be winning 80% to 90% of the time.

It’s easier just to swing trade. If you take that short, you hold onto the trade until the trade is no longer valid. You have a credible buy signal here and you’d get out there. This is a small profit, but sometimes swing trades result in very big profits. Reward’s much, much bigger than the risk, and therefore you can win 40% of the time, 30% of the time, and still make money.
 
I believe you are not quite understanding the traders equation. It has nothing to do with prior or future trades. Or amount of trades. OR scalps or swings. It is not win ratio. It only has to do with one trade at a time. THE PRESENT TRADE. It has to do with what is the probability of price reaching my profit target in this ONE trade before it would hit my SL in this one trade. Previous trades nor futures trades factor into whether the equation is positive or negative. It only applies to the one trade under consideration regardless of whether you are scalping or swinging. You may want to delve a little more into what Brooks means when he talks about the “Traders equation”. It has nothing to do with being correct 80% of the time.
 
volpri said:
I believe you are not quite understanding the traders equation. It has nothing to do with prior or future trades. Or amount of trades. OR scalps or swings. It is not win ratio. It only has to do with one trade at a time. THE PRESENT TRADE. It has to do with what is the probability of price reaching my profit target in this ONE trade before it would hit my SL in this one trade. Previous trades nor futures trades factor into whether the equation is positive or negative. It only applies to the one trade under consideration regardless of whether you are scalping or swinging. You may want to delve a little more into what Brooks means when he talks about the “Traders equation”. It has nothing to do with being correct 80% of the time.
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I understand it just fine. I just posted what brooks said that i was trying to reiterate, he obviously says it better than what I was trying to say.
 
Positive traders equation:

The probability of success X the reward > than the probability of failure x the risk

It has nothing to do with average win or loss size nor win/loss ratio. It is a way of seeing if a potential SINGLE trade has a mathematical advantage (which is an edge) before considering taking a position or skipping the trade.
 
volpri said:
Positive traders equation:

The probability of success X the reward > than the probability of failure x the risk

It has nothing to do with average win or loss size nor win/loss ratio. It is a way of seeing if a potential SINGLE trade has a mathematical advantage (which is an edge) before considering taking a position or skipping the trade.
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Give it a rest. I already told you he said what I was trying to say. I know the traders equation.

Scalping is fuckin stupid for the avg. trader was a point of the whole thing.
 
Ok we can let it rest but just want to make sure folks understand the Traders Equation. Here it is in Brooks own words from his trilogy book Trading Price Action Trading Ranges page 360


“To take a trade, you must believe that the trader's equation is favorable:
the probability of success times the reward has to be greater than the probability of failure times the risk.”

A way of guessing the probability: based upon the contexts...the market cycles....pressures in the present context....the volatility at the moment.......the patterns...and price action location within present market cycle the odds are greater of price hitting my reward before it hits my SL. That assignment number will be your probability of a successful trade. That can ...30% ..60%...70%..50%..etc. it is your best guess. What is left out of 100% is used to to plug into the risk portion of the equation.

You can know your PT (known) you can know your SL (known) you can only best guess the probability element of the equation based upon the context and price patterns within the context...bullish bearish pressures with the context (present market cycle) and the larger context (that is the market cycle even before the present market cycle and it’s strenght).

Plugging in the numbers to the equation renders a number.

Example:

Risk 4 points
Reward 4 points
Probability 60% of being successful

40%x4 =160
60%x4 = 240
240>160 TAKE THE TRADE.

Another example:
Risk 4 points
Reward 10 points
Probability 45% of successful trade
55% x 4 pts = 220
45% x 10 points = 450
450 is greater than 220. TAKE THE TRADE.

You stand a slightly higher chance of being stopped out but IF you aren’t not stopped out you stand to have a very good reward to risk ratio, if the trade works out.

Another example:
Risk 2 points
Reward 2 points
Probability of success 45% based upon contexts ....patterns..pressures...etc
55%x2 =110 (risk number)
45%x2 = 90 (reward number)
90 < 110 do not take the trade

No mathematical advantage.
 
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