Techniques for Day Trading the ES, NQ, YM, MES, MNQ, and MYM

volpri said:
See, as the day progressed many opportunities were presented to trade today's PA using implied PB techniques from both the long and the short side.
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What makes you switch from long to short? In the last chart, after 12:50, you start now showing red boxes for shorting opportunities, but without hindsight bias, how are you switching sides? How is 12:50 to even 13:20 perhaps not just another pullback? Sure, by 13:20 we have many bear bars, but could you not just say its a deep pullback? The entry at 12:55 for a short should be a long in my opinion because it doesn't look any different than all the other pullbacks in a bull trend.

Once the trend gets going to the downside, sure, I can see how you keep wanting to short pullbacks, but what made you call the top?
 
@NoahA I wasn’t calling tops. Never entered my mind. I was trading an implied PB from a bear trend that is found WITHIN a TR (bars 11:05 to bar 12:55) with bar 12:55 being the entry bar AND and in the top 1/3 of the TR. The trend down from high of bar 12:40 to bar 12:55. Therefore it was a 15 minute bear trend with an implied PB for shorting on bar 12:55. It was a three bar downtrend that was a bigger bear trend on a SMALLER TF (LIKE 1 min TF.)

Bar 12:55 AT IT’S CLOSE was an implied PB a 15 min bear trend hence for ok for shorting, especially since at the top of a range, therefore good for shorting and adding to (averaging down if it went back up to the top of the range.) Remember, a TR is 20 bars sideways movement. That was established from bar 11:05 to bar 12:55.

Any PB that becomes 20 bars long is no longer a PB but a TR and price has a 50% chance of breaking out of the range in either direction, north or south. And remember, any BO attempts of a range top or bottom fail 80% of the time and within 5 bars price trades back into the range. THEREFORE, I will trade the implied bear pb at the top 1/3 of the range and will certainly average down if price goes against me to top of the range BETTING the BO will fail (80% do) and price trade back into the range giving me a profit.

Bottom line that PA up to bar 12:55 in that first red box was way beyond definition of PB in a bull trend. It was a range. And the implied short PB on bar 12:55 was taking place within that context.

Again I was not calling a top but playing what the market was giving me within the TR.

Of course, it was all hind site ALL those red boxes were, i never traded any. I was not even there to trade them. The purpose was to point out, for study, implied PB’s in a bullish situation and a bearish situation.

But if I had been trading you can bet a TR box would have been drawn in enveloping bars 11:05 to bar 12:55.

Hope that explains things. Remember the market cycle. Trend (in two parts BO followed by channel) then TR then repeats. There are techniques for trading each part of the market cycle. A pb in a channel after a strong BO is traded differently than a PB in a TR.
 
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I will write up some more on those charts above probably tomm sunday as my brain is getting tired from my posts in padutraders thread and my exchange with the great Iamthe casino dude. He thinks I need to take some meds for my brain.
 
My apologies volpri for suggesting it was a top call. Its not what I meant to say. Of course the trading range tactics makes perfect sense. I will look into your post in more detail when I get more time.
 
NoahA said:
My apologies volpri for suggesting it was a top call. Its not what I meant to say. Of course the trading range tactics makes perfect sense. I will look into your post in more detail when I get more time.
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Not a problem. I just wanted to clarify that I am not even looking at it as a top for the session but a setup in a range. The reversal for the session came later out of the bottom of the range. Then the top of the range could be considered a Top for the session.
 
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I’m 8+ years ET forum reader, most time lurker and seen lots of great contributors and threads. This one thread is the best I ever seen here. Wish I have read it 8 years ago. The trend following analysis presented here is sound and non-standard, all reasoning are logically proven so any reader can get the answer on the most important question ‘why’. Great that @volpri pays most attention to analysis, not 'rules' or 'mindset' and so on.

And lots of thanks to @volpri, you are among top ET contributors.
 
kaizer said:
I’m 8+ years ET forum reader, most time lurker and seen lots of great contributors and threads. This one thread is the best I ever seen here. Wish I have read it 8 years ago. The trend following analysis presented here is sound and non-standard, all reasoning are logically proven so any reader can get the answer on the most important question ‘why’. Great that @volpri pays most attention to analysis, not 'rules' or 'mindset' and so on.

And lots of thanks to @volpri, you are among top ET contributors.
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Thank you. Not sure that my efforts rate as well as you expressed it but I do hope they are useful in some way or another. I do plan on getting back to discussing some concepts in the above charts. I have just been too busy with other things.
 
Volpri,

Not that you need any material, but today's price action would be a great opportunity to discuss how a gap up bull trend pullback perspective morphs into a trading range perspective.

Thanks for your contributions.

newbie
 
newbie463 said:
Volpri,

Not that you need any material, but today's price action would be a great opportunity to discuss how a gap up bull trend pullback perspective morphs into a trading range perspective.

Thanks for your contributions.

newbie
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In my opinion, the best action to describe is one where the initial thesis fails. We have seen volpri reverse a trade I think 3 times in total from my count. This was a case of scaling into a trade, and then completely bailing on it, and doubling up on the amount of contracts in the reverse direction. Its easy when things go as expected.
 
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