Trading in a relatively tight trading range AND Trading an implied PB in a relatively tight trading range.
1) First to review the definition of a trading range: It is 20 or more bars of sideways PA. That means overlapping bars. Typically Bull bar or two then bear bar or two. Races to top then races to bottom. Or drags around to the top then slowly to the bottom.
2) Remember the concept: at top or bottom 80% of BO attempts fail and within 5 bars or so price trades back in to the range.
3) Exception to #1 above. Now when RTH’s opens IF PRICE HAS already been within a range in overnight session of at least 20 bars, and the first few bars of RTH’s open are within that overnight range, AND after a few bars it appears price is going to stay in that range then I usually will go ahead and start using range trading techniques, even though there are not yet 20 bars of sideways PA in the RTH’s. PA behavior is the key item to zero in on here. The first chart will show the range before RTH’s and first part of RTH’s. Take a look at it.
4) Also remember: a) MOST of the Bars in the range to be at least as big or larger than a minimum scalp (which is 4 ticks for ES). B) the height of the range to be at least 3 times the size of a min scalp (i.e. 3 points in ES) C) And the range needs to be three times as broad as the AVERAGE size bar with the range. The tighter or less broad the range is, then trading has to be with limit orders. It is a limit order market. It is too hard to trade a 4 or 5 point broad range with market orders. A 10 or 20 point broad range can be traded with market or limit orders but I generally even trade them with limit orders, unless the up and down movements are fast. Then I might enter and exit on a market orders or stop orders. But in general ranges and channel are usually best traded with limit orders. Price needs to come to your order, especially for entries. This is even more so true in narrow ranges or channels.
A 3 to 4 point broad range about as tight or narrow of a range I want to scalp for 1 point in the ES short, or long. And it means shorting at or near the top of the range at the top of bull flags with limit orders or going long at the bottom of bear flags that are close to the bottom of the range and doing so with limit orders.
OK WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND. I want to highlight two trades of today 1-14-21
First lets look at the context. Range behavior over 20 bars. BO’s top or bottom failing and price goes back into the range. Range height is roughly 8 points. It is meets criteria of a) above. It also meets criteria of B) above. It comes close to meeting the criteria of C) above. The average by (cursory glance) is probably 2.5 to 3 points. Therefore, the context is close enough for meeting the criteria to trade the range for a min scalp which is 1 point in the ES. I would stick to 1 and 2 point scalps in this range until we see a successful BO.
Trade # 1 - a long scalp with entry on bar 9:35 (green triangle and a two point scalp with exit being the lower red triangle on the same bar.) Betting the BO attempt at bottom will fail and price will go back up into the range far enough for a 1 to 2 point scalp. If it had gone against me I would have scaled in with more contracts up to 3 points below the range. As It turned out there was no need to do so to get a two point scalp.
Trade# 2 An implied PB on the same 9:35 bar after exiting the previous long trade. The entry for trade two is the upper red triangle on bar 9:35. Why is it an implied PB? First, the trend is down from bar 9:20 so we have a bear trend in a tight trading range. And it is an implied PB because bar 9:35 opens then trades down to it’s low but by the it's close it forms a bear doji. (locate the same 9:35 doji on the top chart (a 5 min chart) and the second chart i.e. the 5 min chart snapshot) However, it’s high is below the high of bar 9:30 so it is an implied PB on the 5 min chart (again look at the first 5 min chart with the gray box to compare). You can see it was an implied PB because it’s high stayed below the high of bar 9:30. And by looking at the third chart you can see it was an actual PB on the 1 min chart snapshot. Bar 9:30 opens trades down then trades back up ( actual pb on 1 min) to close as a doji and an implied PB on the 5 min chart. So, that up move off it's bottom IS the actual PB on the 1 min chart. So on that one bar (9:35 bar) I take trade 1 and exit it, then I enter again on my initial entry on trade 2. All on bar 9:35. Now notice, this implied BP on the 5 min chart is in the middle of the range. My averaging down area, should it go against me, is up to the top of the range maybe a few points above the top. Should it immediately go my way I try to capture two points. As it turned out it went against me to I scaled in with a second short entry on bar 9:40. Why? I am betting any BO at the top will fail and Price will go back into the range enough for at least a 1 point scalp and maybe 2 or 3 points. So what happened? The BO attempt failed ..price goes down in the range and I exit on bar 9:55 (my entire averaged down position.) I make 1 point on my initial entry and 3 points on my averaged down entry or my second entry.
Note; my initial entry on the 5 min chart (second chart) was a little early. Normally, I would enter on the close of that doji (bar 9:35) but in the waning seconds I could see it was going to likely end up being a doji (therefore an implied PB) so I went ahead and made my initial entry on trade 2 before bar 9:35 closed.
Maybe all this will make logical sense to some of you.