I know you were looking to trade the BO of the ascending triangle however look at the context of the triangle. It is in the top 1/3 of the larger trading range. You got a strong down leg prior to your entry that went into the bottom third of the TR and that biggest bar of that leg Showed strong buying by it’s close (tail on bottom) that immediately brought it back up into top 1/3. That move down was a vacuum test of the lower part of the bigger TR. Right after that Buying you entered long on a BO of the triangle.
But you have to remember context...context...context. It is always very important to see where any price action pattern (bo...triangle...wedge.let) is located at in the larger context.
I actually would have shorting that triangle BO and adding as it moved against me betting the move up would reverse at the top or in the top 1/3 of the larger TR.
You went short as it raced back down and recovered some of your loss which was ok but it was a bit risky as price was in the bottom 1/3 of the larger pattern. I realize you were playing the momentum here in that last trade and that is Ok for a small scalp because chances are it would go down a little more as the previous bar was a big bear bar, however, if I scalped that short once I locked in my profit I would be exiting and I am reversing and taking a long position. Why? Because price is now in the bottom third of the larger TR.
80% of BO attempts of TR’s fail and within 5 bars price starts going back towards the range.
I do not know what happened afterwards but at your exit of that short I would be going long and averaging down long as it moved against me betting that even if it went south of the bottom of the TR it would probably start reversing back up towards bottom of the range within 5 bars and move enough into the range to give me a profit on my averaged down position long.
on the flip side of the matter If any BO south of the TR is successful and does not go back up enough for a profit then I am dumping the averaged down long and reversing short and doubling or tripling up in size recovering any loss from the averaged down long very quickly.
why don’t you post what happened to price after your last trade when you get a chance.that way we can see how i would have turned out in my description above.
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Moring volpri,
Thanks for responding.
Good conversation.
Before the loss trade, I made $100 on this trade https://www.tradingview.com/x/wh72uMkj/ (entry blue, exit purple, stop orange). This BO was very strong ( 5 bulls bars closing above mid points). This gave me confidence or high probability the upper trading range (to the left) would breakout. I was surprised by the bears quick sell off here (not even a minor bull flag was created here).
At this time, my mindset was still bullish as I was looking at this bull leg in bigger TR. When price reversed down to alot of support (recent BO resistance, EMA, and triangle trend line), I waited to see what the bulls would do. When I saw a strong bull bar closing near its high, I thought to myself, their is a good chance the bulls will make an another tempt higher and at least I can set my profit target near the upper range, so I took it. https://www.tradingview.com/x/75azdQCI/ I did not want to use a big stop on this trade because I knew if the bulls did not hold this level there is high odds bears will continue lower.
hmmm, if I can go back and redo this trade, instead of entering long on the first bull bar, I wait for more information and wait for another bull bar and then enter for a scalp. Or wait for a H2 signal, which occurred a few bars later, but I would not have been filled.
The third trade, was an easy one https://www.tradingview.com/x/7KPGbqTj/
I was confident if the bulls did not hold where I entered at there would more made bulls as myself, exiting their positions, so I entered short for a quick scalp and exit at local support.