It is understood. A question Volpri, I usually work with weekly charts, then Would it be advisable to follow the trend of my own swingtrading also for intraday? If the weekly chart is bullish, normally the intraday strech will be longer on the bullish side. The problem is that maybe one day I will not be able to operate because the timeframe trend will be bearish, but in return I will gain security in operations, what do you think? Is it better to rest one day and follow the weekly trend? The most recent example is this Friday, if I had followed the weekly trend I would have been much better.
Techniques for Day Trading the ES, NQ, YM, MES, MNQ, and MYM
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Sometimes, the night will be bullish, sometimes the European session will be bullish, sometimes the American session will be bullish, maybe the solution is to be open to operate at the correct market hours, when the hourly trend goes in the same direction as the weekly trend, what do you think?
You never answered my question about your chart in your post 143 : what phase of the cycle do you think your chart in post 143 is in? I asked this question to you in my posts about randomness..etc
Nevertheless, I will answer it. It is important to understand. If you had to draw an arrow which way? SIDEWAYS it is. That means I must use CERTAIN tactics to trade this sort of price action. I must understand that 80% of BO ATTEMPTS from a range will fail and price will simply trade back down into the range. 80%! That is good odds. So what will I do understanding this bit of info? How will I trade? Well there are a variety of techniques, if I am scalping. The basic idea is too look for opportunities to short near the top. And to buy near the bottom. Exit, in both cases, on moves towards the center of the range. There exist several ways to do this. That is, there several tactics.
But first let's identify some characteristics of range behavior. So, how do I know price is in a range so I can begin using range trading tactics?
1) when I feel confused about price action. If there is confusion price is likely in a range before it becomes obviously evident that it is in a range. Price goes up. Then down. Then up. Then down.
2) when I see bull bar followed by bear bar followed by bull bar...etc..over and over. That means bulls are bulls are pushing and bears are pushing back. Bulls want a BO but so do bears.
3) when I see price RACE to the top then race back down.
4) tails on top at the top of the developing range and tails on bottom at the bottom of the developing range. That indicates selling in the former and buying in the latter.
5) when I see huge bars that race to the top or bottom in what looks like a for sure BO of the range is forthcoming then suddenly, the big bar move (up or down) stops dead in it’s tracks and price reverses.
6) lots of overlapping bars. Akin to number #1 and #2 above but can just be a series of overlapping bull bars or a series of overlapping bear bars. This indicates both bulls and bears are active. Sooner or later one side will win and I will see a BO but until then what do I do?
7) when I see 10 to 20 of the bars with the above type of characteristics then price is probably in a range and if I am aggressive I will begin applying range trading tactic when I see 10 bars. If I am conservative I may want to see 20 such bars described above before applying range trading tactics.
8) I want to see the overall context that the developing range is forming in. In other words, on the SAME time frame are we coming out of a bear trend or a bull trend? That has implications for when a BO of the developing range does finally occur. Next I may bump up to a larger time frame and see the CONTEXT of this developing range. Is this developing range on the smaller TF forming in a bull trend or bear trend, or channel, or even in a bigger range within the LARGER TIME FRAME? In others words, where is it’s location within the larger TF? Along with height of the range this has implications for the SIZE of the scalps I will take.
Remember the phases of the market cycle..range..BO ....channel...range. This cycle applies to ALL time frames. So...what PHASE of the cycle is price in? On the smaller time frame? What phase is it in on the larger TF? By TF’s I am talking about intraday (1, 5, 15, 30, 60 minute TF principally 5, 15, 30 min ones). I occasionally consider a peek at the daily TF but beyond that anything else is basically useless info for scalping 1 to 8 points intraday and will tend to just complicate and make decision harder. Most generally I am looking mostly at the 5 and 15 min TF’s. More than that and things start getting obfuscated instead of elucidated. Looking at last week is useless for the most part. This is not swing trading off a daily chart. It is intraday scalping. What happened last wed a week ago has no bearing or little bearing on the next 5 or 15 minutes.
Later I will make some more comments on tactics for this specific chart. But in the meantime “think” about the above. Just remember, that these are characteristics of ranges forming in ANY TF. Now, think about that! Because I am looking at 2 maybe 3 TF’s (5, 15, 30 min). The 5 min range may be taking place in a larger range on the 30 min chart. So, what is it’t location on the 30 min chart. That fact may influence the size of my scalp. ¿Comprendo?
Nevertheless, I will answer it. It is important to understand. If you had to draw an arrow which way? SIDEWAYS it is. That means I must use CERTAIN tactics to trade this sort of price action. I must understand that 80% of BO ATTEMPTS from a range will fail and price will simply trade back down into the range. 80%! That is good odds. So what will I do understanding this bit of info? How will I trade? Well there are a variety of techniques, if I am scalping. The basic idea is too look for opportunities to short near the top. And to buy near the bottom. Exit, in both cases, on moves towards the center of the range. There exist several ways to do this. That is, there several tactics.
But first let's identify some characteristics of range behavior. So, how do I know price is in a range so I can begin using range trading tactics?
1) when I feel confused about price action. If there is confusion price is likely in a range before it becomes obviously evident that it is in a range. Price goes up. Then down. Then up. Then down.
2) when I see bull bar followed by bear bar followed by bull bar...etc..over and over. That means bulls are bulls are pushing and bears are pushing back. Bulls want a BO but so do bears.
3) when I see price RACE to the top then race back down.
4) tails on top at the top of the developing range and tails on bottom at the bottom of the developing range. That indicates selling in the former and buying in the latter.
5) when I see huge bars that race to the top or bottom in what looks like a for sure BO of the range is forthcoming then suddenly, the big bar move (up or down) stops dead in it’s tracks and price reverses.
6) lots of overlapping bars. Akin to number #1 and #2 above but can just be a series of overlapping bull bars or a series of overlapping bear bars. This indicates both bulls and bears are active. Sooner or later one side will win and I will see a BO but until then what do I do?
7) when I see 10 to 20 of the bars with the above type of characteristics then price is probably in a range and if I am aggressive I will begin applying range trading tactic when I see 10 bars. If I am conservative I may want to see 20 such bars described above before applying range trading tactics.
8) I want to see the overall context that the developing range is forming in. In other words, on the SAME time frame are we coming out of a bear trend or a bull trend? That has implications for when a BO of the developing range does finally occur. Next I may bump up to a larger time frame and see the CONTEXT of this developing range. Is this developing range on the smaller TF forming in a bull trend or bear trend, or channel, or even in a bigger range within the LARGER TIME FRAME? In others words, where is it’s location within the larger TF? Along with height of the range this has implications for the SIZE of the scalps I will take.
Remember the phases of the market cycle..range..BO ....channel...range. This cycle applies to ALL time frames. So...what PHASE of the cycle is price in? On the smaller time frame? What phase is it in on the larger TF? By TF’s I am talking about intraday (1, 5, 15, 30, 60 minute TF principally 5, 15, 30 min ones). I occasionally consider a peek at the daily TF but beyond that anything else is basically useless info for scalping 1 to 8 points intraday and will tend to just complicate and make decision harder. Most generally I am looking mostly at the 5 and 15 min TF’s. More than that and things start getting obfuscated instead of elucidated. Looking at last week is useless for the most part. This is not swing trading off a daily chart. It is intraday scalping. What happened last wed a week ago has no bearing or little bearing on the next 5 or 15 minutes.
Later I will make some more comments on tactics for this specific chart. But in the meantime “think” about the above. Just remember, that these are characteristics of ranges forming in ANY TF. Now, think about that! Because I am looking at 2 maybe 3 TF’s (5, 15, 30 min). The 5 min range may be taking place in a larger range on the 30 min chart. So, what is it’t location on the 30 min chart. That fact may influence the size of my scalp. ¿Comprendo?
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Intraday scalping gains very little, if any, useful info from looking at a weekly chart. What happened last week means little to nothing for the next 5 to 30 minutes. So why complicate matters and make decisions more complex? I try to stick to binary choices in decision making for executing trades on the intraday charts in front of me. I simply do not care one iota what happened 3 days ago or last week. I barely care about what happened yesterday.
I simply prefer getting real good at reading PA on the intraday TF’s I am trading in.
Me thinks you are complicating it more than it needs to be. I would just focus on getting good at reading price action intraday on 5,15,30 min charts for any session you choose to operate in. It appears you are trying to correlate intraday with weekly. For intraday scalping 1 to 8 points in say the ES that is not necessary. Even 60 min is really getting too far out for intraday scalping correlation with a 5 min charts. IMO it is best to make decisions for trading on a 5 minute chart with occasional GLANCES (did I say glances?) at 15 and 30 min charts. Most scalping trades are gonna last 60 seconds to 30 minutes. Why do I need to look at a weekly chart? It is useless for me.
Sorry for not responding, I have not had much time, of course graphic 143 is lateral, but there is a problem, to realize that it is lateral before I will have lost money. I see it this way, imagine a lottery hype, if 50% of the balls are red and 50% of the balls are black, if you buy a ticket betting on black you have 50% chance of getting it right. Now, imagine a lottery hype with 75% of the black balls and 25% of the red balls. Now imagine that the prizes are unbalanced, if you get a red ball you get the third prize, if you have a black ball you get the second or the first prize What ball would you bet on? That's why I think that going in favor of the weekly trend makes sense. Or maybe not, in fact I have never been profitable in the intraday, but I think that any measure to avoid failures must be taken into account and bet in the weekly direction is to bet on the hype of 75% of black balls. Maybe I have no idea 
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You make a valid point on identifying the lateral movement. But that is why you have to WAIT and see if a developing range starting from the lateral movement. 10 to 20 bars with the characteristics of the bars described above is usually enough. Then I start trading it using range tactics. That is, if you are trading off this 60 min chart.Sorry for not responding, I have not had much time, of course graphic 143 is lateral, but there is a problem, to realize that it is lateral before I will have lost money. I see it this way, imagine a lottery hype, if 50% of the balls are red and 50% of the balls are black, if you buy a ticket betting on black you have 50% chance of getting it right. Now, imagine a hype with 75% of the black balls and 25% of the red balls. Now imagine that the prizes are unbalanced, if you get a red ball you get the third prize, if you have a black ball you get the second or the first prize What ball would you bet on? That's why I think that going in favor of the weekly trend makes sense. Or maybe not, in fact I have never been profitable in the intraday, but I think that any measure to avoid failures must be taken into account and bet in the weekly direction is to bet on the hype of 75% of black balls. Maybe I have no idea
Now if you were trading the same price action that is on this 60 min chart but you are trading it on the 5 min chart you would be getting many more trades and patterns to trade.
You can’t compare trading to the lottery. Skill is involved in trading.
However, weekly chart info relates no useful info, at least to me, for trading off a 5 min chart.
However, I might would buy 3 tickets for black balls and 12 tickets for red balls..LOL
Really, maybe scalping doesn't matter.
Reading pressures for scalping is important for high win rate and successful trading. And for determining SL’s and PT’s. Tails on bars are involved in reading pressures. Short with limit orders near tops of red circles even if on next bar and probability is good that I can exit with a profit in a bar or two. Enter long on green circle even on the next bar after the green circles and probability is high I can get a scalp within 2 or 3 bars or less. The probability increases if I do this on green circles when price is near the bottom of the range. Otherwise, I may have to average down by adding to the position if my entry was on a green circle in the middle third of the range. But even averaging down I should get out soon with a profit and the buying pressure is there.
If shorting near red circles and the circle is in the middle third of the range I may have to average in on any adverse movement after my first entry but I should be able to get out with a profit within a few bars.
Trades entered near circles on the edge of the range probably won’t have to be averaged into.
If shorting near red circles and the circle is in the middle third of the range I may have to average in on any adverse movement after my first entry but I should be able to get out with a profit within a few bars.
Trades entered near circles on the edge of the range probably won’t have to be averaged into.
Overlapping bars = bulls and bears both strong. And about equal. That is why the lateral movement forms known as a range. Sooner or later one side wins and we get a SUCCESSFUL BO of the range. Many BO attempts will be attempted by both sides, eventually one side will win but ...UNTIL...I can trade the lateral PA using scalping tactics.
