TECHNIQUE: After three profitable trades, skipping the next setup.

if your discretionary eye is good..why?

Your adverse drawdowns on some of the trades are huge compared to the amount of profit you eventually make. I'm curious to know at what point you would throw in the towel on a trade?
 
Your adverse drawdowns on some of the trades are huge compared to the amount of profit you eventually make. I'm curious to know at what point you would throw in the towel on a trade?

cascade of non confirmations/expectations, internal positive/negative oscillation, very bad trades, repetitive negative confirmation in price action in all timeframes. The trade turns negative in one timeframe ie.. like 5 minute chart but fails to on the 4hr chart. The trade would still be kept. Basically if the trade leaves a sour taste, minimization of losses but not expecting to make anything of significance on it. The frequency of setups are higher as timeframes approach tick charts. When you get into longer timeframes, one may have to sit and wait for days for a setup.
 
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Your adverse drawdowns on some of the trades are huge compared to the amount of profit you eventually make. I'm curious to know at what point you would throw in the towel on a trade?

I noticed that as well...a $34700 DD on a $110 eventual profit...At the same time I have seen traders that will put in large stops with small profit targets banking on the idea that they can capture the "noise"...The S&P has always attracted faders and mean reversion types (although it's been "trending" a great deal the past 6 months)
 
I am wondering if it is wise to skip the next setup after three profitable trades , since the probability of having a fourth profitable trade will be less (on average)?

What do you think?

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That would be great advice for many. For the not so experienced, it would be a good time to examine your trades as to why they worked.
 
No one know if the next trade will be a winner or a loser. If your system has a positive expectancy, the more signals you take (while observing your trade management rules), the more you will gain over time.
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Exactly right; an exception could be in like a bear market 3+ years old.You could trade smaller; or if your are real , real young you may want to increase size-LOL. T hat way you may possibley have time to recover from huge losses. NOT a prediction; wisdom is profitable to direct
 
I am wondering if it is wise to skip the next setup after three profitable trades , since the probability of having a fourth profitable trade will be less (on average)?

What do you think?
I think such a proposition is entirely arbitrary because I doubt any amount of valid testing would ever arrive at such a conclusion.

If trade outcomes are entirely independent, as a previous poster suggested, then skipping a setup for its own sake makes no sense. And even if trade outcomes were not entirely independent (say, because you hit a patch of price action that was particularly friendly to your trading method), then would you want to skip a setup while you were especially in synch with the market?

There may be reasons to skip setups, but the reason and manner in which you propose is not one of them.
 
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