Quote from einstein:
Posting this for Nodoji upon request but any of more experienced traders should feel free to comment. I have been having difficulty entering on complex pullbacks, Keep getting faked out and then the trend usually goes the way I thought it would after I am stopped out.
Attaching a 1 min CL chart. There was a big uptrend in place and I was waiting to enter on a PB. I was thinking of entering on a break of the 6th candle in following the start of the PB but hesitated. That prob would have been a scratch trade. Instead I waited and put in a buy limit order at the Keltner 20 ema (first arrow) and was stopped out.
I am looking at some guidance on PB entries in a trend especially the more complex PBs . Thanks in advance.
Phew! Where to begin? As Ocean said there is a lot missing.
1) I miss the feel for the PA because your candles take up less than 1/3rd of the chart. Fill up the chart so you feel the emotion.
2) You are Keltner trading on anticipation. That will be hit and miss and I don't like putting my trust into anything unless I have confidence in the market reasoning. Can't say I believe the big guys are watching this Keltner so I think the technicals as weak here.
3) You say CL is in an uptrend. This is a keyhole chart view and I'd like to know how you know it is an uptrend that is continuing and not reversing - I need to see left to get a better feel.
4) If I understand your chart you are entering long on a red candle on anticipation that the Keltner will reverse the market. This is what I call hero trading and you'd be an amazing trader if you could do that successfully on a Keltner. You'll soon be the richest man on the planet - or the poorest.
5) For me to believe this is counter to the trend I'd need confirmation from a larger time frame that there is a positive expectation of higher prices.
6) Let's assume that this is a pull back in a bigger up trend - how could it be traded? I honestly couldn't trade a fast move with a slow Keltner sweep as it puts my perspective off so I'd need to remove it from that chart. If you really want the Keltner then you need to have 2 charts open.
7) Corrections are frequently at least an ABC move. We get a leg down, then a 50% retrace (red horizontal) so it has a good structure. This reversal has good multiple candle signals - can you read them? If not then you are using very weak techicals and putting too many eggs into a Keltner indicator basket.
8) The C Leg completes and I would really want to see left, but using the limits of this chart your candles do the talking and end up in a double bottom confirmation as the easy trade move completion.
9)Yellow lines show a channel support on the lows.
10) How do I know the ABC is complete? As Ocean said, there is too much missing to have a high degree of confidence but it is a good structure and well signaled. Can you read that? If not, again your structural understanding and candle signals are too weak to trade this move.
11) When I glanced at your chart I thought your 1st arrow was a sell signal - as indeed it is and not a buy signal. You were on the wrong side of the market.
12) Contrary to your statement, this is not a complex pullback. It is simple, pretty clean and well structured. It has good signals and there are no fake outs. It would be a lot clearer if it was seen in a more complete context.
I hope you are able to pull some things out of this. One of them should be an examination of your methodology and how you can build it into something more complete because what you have stated and presented here has a lot of holes and dangers. But this is how we all learn and develop.
