Technical outlook on Crude

What do you think?

  • Agree

    Votes: 23 53.5%

  • Disagree

    Votes: 14 32.6%

  • Don't know

    Votes: 6 14.0%
  • Total voters
    43
For those with a longer term outlook, the weekly chart has a nice flag pattern with the price currently at the bottom end of the flag.
A breakout or breakdown from that flag can be very profitable.
 
This is 240 min chart, daily's histo showing signs of 2nd higher trough which would confirm a potential DB. No matter what I or others smart analysts say, reading a chart and believing in your own analyses is a lot more appropriate when it comes to trade decisions, even if it does sound nuts at times. I will mention for the record that my understanding of fundamentals is about as good as my understanding of why the Earth is round :) I don't base trades on any news reports, I certainly don't watch CNBC/Bloomy etc.

Anyway, all I can do now is sit and wait for this to come though as a hen on eggs.

Best to all! As of now, ratio is 9 vs 2, still in minority LOL

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1783377>
 

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what do you to say about the red line and red circle and the similarities in what you mentioned in the chart? How is this breakout a valid one?
 

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Quote from usman88:

what do you to say about the red line and red circle and the similarities in what you mentioned in the chart? How is this breakout a valid one?
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As a pattern that previous one was PERFECT divergence but they don't all work out according to plan, but the main difference is the following:

1) Does daily histogram show early signs of 2nd higher trough now? YES

2) Do we see a potential for a DB? YES

3) Has price broken out of boundaries of upper TL of the wedge? YES

Also you have to ask yourself the following as you seem to use some fundamental reasoning - how do you know that your knowledge of fundamentals is in line with economical outlooks of the pros, basically people that specialise in crunching numbers?

Today, I also asked an LSE trader re Crude, she confirmed my outlooks (based on just chart analyses) that Crude is a BUY, just like metals and that stock markets are to tank, that's the word between LSE traders.
 
basically I look at the market and market players from a deeper perspective. Wouldn't be able to explain it here. Maybe some time when we have a chat we can talk about it.
All I would like to say is that 'pros' change their statements every minute. One moment the economy is in recession and one moment it is recovering and one moment it is in boom. One moment this and one moment that. However if you consider insiders and think manipulation, everything will start making sense. I hope you get the point.
US economy is still in recession, inventories are building up and seasonaly and historically(mar-may)crude is going down.
however I am personally disappointed. DIdnt followed my rules and suffered
 
Quote from usman88:

basically I look at the market and market players from a deeper perspective. Wouldn't be able to explain it here. Maybe some time when we have a chat we can talk about it.
All I would like to say is that 'pros' change their statements every minute. One moment the economy is in recession and one moment it is recovering and one moment it is in boom. One moment this and one moment that. However if you consider insiders and think manipulation, everything will start making sense. I hope you get the point.
US economy is still in recession, inventories are building up and seasonaly and historically(mar-may)crude is going down.
however I am personally disappointed. DIdnt followed my rules and suffered
More...

Noted.

Holding Long position until a reverse signal presents itself, ImO at this point crude has a chance of just retracing to previous upper TL (wedge) and bouncing of it and continueing towards the highs. Reverse signal will have to take place on 4 hour chart.
 
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