Technical analysis

[volpunter]

How is looking for an explanation in hindsight smart? Why don't you try yourself on a chart and predict tomorrow's moves using technical analysis?

Great question. I'm very interested in hearing all the opinions myself. This is an excellent chart to start with imo because everyone already knows the outcome of last Fridays session. All that's necessary is an explanation of why it happened and how we can trade it the next time it happens.

Hopefully the clowns and their smart alec remarks won't bother you with stupid comments. If they do just click on their names and a window will popup where you can ignore them in the future. If they're really obnoxious and you think it would help others feel free to click on the complain button on the bottom of their posts before you put them on ignore.

That's a beautiful chart! I'm really looking forward to hearing some real analysis of where it's been? Where it is? Why it went where it did last Friday? Where it's going?

Thanks again for starting this thread.

 

[volpunter]

Lol let the games begin...I have a sense you are up to a strong start. Unfortunately we will never see your trading account as proof of a 70 year old trying to convince beginners that TA works...sad really...

I'm not at liberty to discuss any specific sequence of events but anyone using simple common sense would immediately see the events exemplified the definition of tactical advantage and thus simultaneously understand the reasoning why it 'must' work.

 

[dartmus]

How is looking for an explanation in hindsight smart? Why don't you try yourself on a chart and predict tomorrow's moves using technical analysis?

The nature of developing models requires analyzing history. It's imprudent to publish specifics other than wild speculation about direction because entry, stop and exit add non-random history.

 

[dartmus]

Lol let the games begin...I have a sense you are up to a strong start. Unfortunately we will never see your trading account as proof of a 70 year old trying to convince beginners that TA works...sad really...

If you don't find any value in my notes you're free to skip over them. Or you may if you prefer attempt to discourage me from posting as you're doing here and I might indeed begin posting less but you're competing with the fact writing out my thoughts in this manner has been an immense help to me thus far because I've had to formalize many of my ideas into a format others might appreciate. I continue to gain by participating here but it is a distraction and I should focus on the fact I already have enough models and processes for creating new models that the value of participating here is waning to the point I intend to stop sharing soon so move along or stay if you prefer but think about basing your actions on some constructive path you want to be on.

 

[volpunter]

Whwhwhwhaaaaat? Are you trying to say something or prefer to obfuscate? If the latter why even participating in this thread?

The nature of developing models requires analyzing history. It's imprudent to publish specifics other than wild speculation about direction because entry, stop and exit add non-random history.

 

[volpunter]

I do not discourage you in any way...

And the only on topic point I got from your invaluable notes so far is that OP's posted chart is BEAUTIFUL. Please remind me if I missed out on any more insightful and important analyses of yours.

If you don't find any value in my notes you're free to skip over them. Or you may if you prefer attempt to discourage me from posting as you're doing here and I might indeed begin posting less but you're competing with the fact writing out my thoughts in this manner has been an immense help to me thus far because I've had to formalize many of my ideas into a format others might appreciate. I continue to gain by participating here but it is a distraction and I should focus on the fact I already have enough models and processes for creating new models that the value of participating here is waning to the point I intend to stop sharing soon so move along or stay if you prefer but think about basing your actions on some constructive path you want to be on.

 

[dartmus]

Whwhwhwhaaaaat? Are you trying to say something or prefer to obfuscate? If the latter why even participating in this thread?

That's laughable. IMO the value of what I've posted to this thread is priceless.

 

[volpunter]

Absolutely. Priceless

That's laughable. IMO the value of what I've posted to this thread is priceless.

 

[Autodidact]

My weekly posted outlook:

One more chart, this is again monthly chart of S&P500 this time, clear divergence between MFI and price (MFI of course isn't just based on price performance, but volume as well). MACD histogram is negative to the extent that will not instill confidence, quite the opposite (bearish sentiment). And of course multi-year trend line has been violated on strong volume.

I believe my outlook to have strong technical validity, as this is a macro chart and all fundamentals are reflected in price performance on this time frame.

The only index that has so far prevented from downside acceleration is NDX, which is above it's 20MMA. Once it breaks it and the key zone that I monitor on all other indexes it would take months to get indexes back to ATH.

A trendline break does not mean trend-change, it just means momentum has decelerated and then new ones can be created; sample attached.

 

[romik]

View attachment 158377

A trendline break does not mean trend-change, it just means momentum has decelerated and then new ones can be created; sample attached.

I realise that, exactly why in my previous post in my thread I stated that a horizontal key zone break and close of monthly bar will constitute a trend change, which hasn't happened yet. It did happen in S&P Banking Index though. I've named the thread 'spot the bear' and that's exactly what it is about at this stage and events that led to the August sell off.