Technical analysis with artificial intelligence

Quote from marklucas:
A science is falsifiable... Can you predict human behaviour as accurately as the force of gravity on a falling object?
''No," I hear you say? Why not?
Because it 'aint science! :)
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Mark, buddy, There is not any mention of "prediction" in a definition of science. Nor does it say that it's basis needs to be either true or false. In fact science is mosty about grey areas... theories... hypothesis'....

Here let me help you out. This link is an awsome site for a one-stop shop of information resources. Do yourself a favor and brush up on your knowledge base.

http://www.answers.com/main/ntquery?s=Science&gwp=13
 
well English is my third language, what I meant was falsifiable science. I'm looking for a term here that can translate "positieve wetenschappen" from dutch, when I look up the "literal" translation and it's meaning however it's something else then what you get in the dutch version. http://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exacte_wetenschap this is the link to the dutch version of wikipedia ... enjoy !
 
KTMEX20,

A scientific theory is postulated and experimentation follows to test validity/predictability. If it fails, it fails. If it succeeds, it is replicated, confirmed (or not , as the case may be) and the results reviewed by one’s peers. Then it will be accepted as scientific fact – no longer mere theory - or rejected.

Yes, TA uses fundamental mathematics but it doesn’t follow the results have mathematical validity, anymore than astrology can draws on astronomy for legitimacy.

Grant.
 
"Are there any good software packages that can analyse charts for you, and help predict the market?"

There are several programs/indicators that in various ways do that, however that methodology is a bit after-the-fact.

There's thousands of trading systems that generally trade any financial instrument, 'predicting the market' — or without 'predicting the market' depending on your point of view, either providing B/S signals and/or entering trades directly.
 
Seems to me tech analysis is about probabilities: when x and or x happens price will probably increase or decrease for an x value an x number of times on average etc.

TA is about finding a signal to buy,sell,stop,reverse with enough probability in it happening an adequate number of times to extract some value out of the trading instrument and making adjustments as time passes to account for changing probabilities.

That's the easy part. The PSYCHOlogical aspects are a whole different pain to overcome. Need some software to neutralize the emotions in ya. Or plenty of mind numbing alcohol.

Software using TA or other events to 'predict' price movement, I would think, is just based on probabilities.
 
Thank you, Mark.

The likes of sociology, anthropology and meteorology may not be "pure" sciences because of their lack of predicatability.

But this should not detract from credibility or application - most academic/intellectual disciplines aspiring to a greater level of acceptance or universality instil as far as possible a scientific method in their approach to their studies.

This is in contrast to TA which is a pseudo-science, like alchemy, wrapped up in sophistry. There's controversy for you.



Grant.
 
Quote from marklucas:

Are there any good software packages that can analyse charts for you, and help predict the market?

Sounds amateurish I know, but if there is such thing as technical analysis, there should be software that does the analysis for you.
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Here are two options marklucas:

1. http://www.tradingpro.com/

There is a trader here named dan05 who is doing a study on it, while it did experience a hit in August, since he has started the thread it has been performing pretty well. He's a nice guy and he would welcome your questions and inquiries. Here's the thread.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=70418


There are a couple of people who swear by this one ...
2. http://www.wave59.com/ as it actually uses many adaptive studies, can incorporate custom scripting and has lots of other fun stuff.

Good luck exploring both options ... I am sure that they will help to give you a better edge than the average trader enjoys.

Best Regards,

Jimmy Jam

edit: it sure as hell is not an amateurish question
 
Quote from cvds16:

technical analysis is no science ...
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Untrue. TA is part science.

The problem is that TA includes any, and I do mean any, conclusions drawn from looking at price charts and/or volume charts, regardless of whether the conclusions are logically derived at or not. So some practitioners of TA are very scientific in their analyses while some others are at best only partly scientific (e.g., using FFTs to analyze price action) and the rest have dispensed with logic altogether and resorted to astrology, numerology and even worse offenses to intelligent minds. :cool:
 
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