Technical Analysis vs. Counting

A lot of opinions in that discussion. I especially liked the chessplayer weighing in. I had to hurry through it, however, when my eyes began glazing over. Was there a point to it all? I must have missed it.

Seriously, how can anyone object to the use of charts? They are windows to watch the activity in the marketplace. A chart doesn't predict or do anything. It's all just information, right?

People make money in the market in different ways, but essentially they're all punching the herd for a few bucks. The money's got to come from somewhere. A chart just shows what the herd has done.

Funny thing about the herd, most of the time it doesn't go anywhere, but when it moves it does the same things over and over and over again. It didn't take me long to see that, although it took a bit of time to figure out how to make money from it.

I guess I don't understand people who've watched the market for years and deny that what I'm doing can be done. Perhaps if I were still struggling it might bother me to hear of doubts. But that time has past, which is maybe why that whole discussion strikes me as a tedious, superfluous debate.
 
Quote from Error 404:

I need Gordon Gekko and Aphie to read this and refine it down to 1000 words (or less). What's the essence here? I smell a "holy grail" hidden somewhere in all those words. Uncover it guys! C'mon!

Hey, if I were as young as you guys, and had the time you guys have (not to mention the brains), I would do it myself. But alas, this is not the case. So hook a brother up, and give me the skinny on the discussion. Keep it simple. Simple enough for me to understand (I know it won't be easy, but hey, if anyone can do it, you guys can).

Thanks in advance,
:)RS
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I don't usually walk on the bright side of the street; however, I read the article more or less. The only comment I thought worth much was Victor Niederhoffer's lament that most critics panned his work.

RS, If you were Vic I'd have to say, "It is enough to most of us who appreciate what you did that you did it, f--- the critical acclaim."

As for what personally I thought was worth remembering...if you have Education of a Speculator, re-read the sections on deception, predator/prey relationships, mimicry, and market ecology. Niederhoffer alluded to the predator /prey relationship in the discussion on more than one occasion.
 
Quote from bdixon619:


RS, If you were Vic I'd have to say, "It is enough to most of us who appreciate what you did that you did it, f--- the critical acclaim."
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do you still give niederhoffer acclaim given that his lifetime trading performance is likely net negative?

vic strikes me as a conceited person trying to convince everyone how humble he is, feigning ennui yet desperately craving attention. even after his blowout he comes off as more condescending than guys like paul tudor jones or monroe trout ever did.

p.s. i read and enjoyed education of a speculator, though more for entertainment value than trading knowledge- a single straightforward analogy that brings the concept home is worth a hundred interesting and creative ones that stimulate thought but ultimately fall wide of the mark imho.
 
Quote from darkhorse:




do you still give niederhoffer acclaim given that his lifetime trading performance is likely net negative?

vic strikes me as a conceited person trying to convince everyone how humble he is, feigning ennui yet desperately craving attention. even after his blowout he comes off as more condescending than guys like paul tudor jones or monroe trout ever did.

p.s. i read and enjoyed education of a speculator, though more for entertainment value than trading knowledge- a single straightforward analogy that brings the concept home is worth a hundred interesting and creative ones that stimulate thought but ultimately fall wide of the mark imho.
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That's a nice analysis. I thought his first book was great. I just breezed through it briefly yesterday after I posted. I've read it at least three times and still have about a dozen pages dog-eared for ready reference. To me the book has been very important because of the way he expressed himself about understanding and collecting information for analysis.

By the time I read Vic's book I had been reading TASC for several years and had already applied much of what I learned there to charting; however, formulating a statistical method, using scatter charts, even his description of "Niederhoffering a course" was useful in developing judgement about which techniques to use in statistics.

Woven throughout he told his own story and that of his family. I found that to be very interesting as he grew up in an historical place and time, subsequent to WWII. The only reference I had for this time is my father; most of his childhood was spent during and after the Great Depression. So, the book gave me a second view of a time when my father was a teen and young adult.

As for your initial question, I don't see Vic in the same light nor judge him by the same standards as you seem to. I've seen a few very driven people in my life. Almost invariably, everyone I've met, whether tremendously successful (and I know one billionaire on a first name basis) or as humble as my own Dad have a downside to their personality. I do, myself. Anyway, in people of great ability the common characteristics we all seem to blithely ignore in those of everyday experience (our family and friends) are written in quite large letters, so these characteristics are easily noticed and speculated about.

That's as close to a direct answer as you will get from me. Have a good day.

:)
 
The reason why I have not posted to this site is the anonymous user names. I do not like talking via sign language in my truck. I call it the tank effect. Men in their cars, feel brave and will flip you off for an improper lane change. However, no one will dare tell me to F-off in the bank line or at the grocery store.

At first glance one could say, what do you really know about Victor Niederhoffer?. I have been his friend for a few years. I have traded with him, in good times and in panics. He is the best day trader any of us has ever seen. He trades for a living, every single day.

However, on second read, I do understand where many of you are coming from. I read ED-SPEC in 1997 and thought, jeeze either this guy is a genius or an ego manic. He is a genius. I can ask him any question, on many subjects and he directs me to the proper book to read to educate myself. If not him, then one of his partners, the kind of guys that have token perfect 1600 SAT score to Harvard. Who would think such brilliant guys are totally cool?

I am a college dropout, an X tank gunner in the Army and a motocross racer. Not once has Vic or anyone else associated with him made me feel any way, for not understanding a topic or a point. On the contrary, they all go out of their way to educate this day trader. It seems that very smart and erudite men, love others with a penchant for learning.

I started SOES ‘n it at Broadway, back in the day. They have helped me make the most difficult transition to day trading SNP and Nazz futures. Day Trading against the top pros in the country is the most difficult way to earn a living. The only thing more difficult is being a stand up comic. Stocks are much easier to gross profit. However the Vig, SEC tax fees make futures better if we have the ability to predict.

The problem here is, some of you guys do not believe there are traders that actually have predictions, hourly that can be traded. I certainly did not. That is why I worked on my feel gauge, keeping emotions in check. Get the joke, If we have the ability to predict, trading becomes emotionless.

I do not have such abilities. However, I try. It takes all my strength some days not to buy and jump on a trend. I know momentum trading works. I did it for 6 years and profited. However my costs were 50% of my revenue. When that momentum stops, you better whack that stock out quick. Therefore my costs were very high. Now they are 5%of revenue in futures.

I write all this, not for my friend Vic. I write this for you. Read his books. Study his ways. E-mail him from his website and ask him questions. He will answer men that are willing to learn. Be humble and get the joke. Why in the hades would anyone say Vic’s X employee had a better system, when it was exactly the same. That was funny.

I post here with the upmost respect for everyone here. Most men here are warriors. You earn your living from the day to day battles, in the trenches of the stock and bond pits. If somehow we could start a thread and keep it mutually beneficial without too much rif raff I would love to learn from you. My favorite posts here is the immediate hammering of men trying to sell books, or software or some other system. I make my living from day trading. I eat when I win and starve when I lose. My wife is the hero... LACK
 
No offense to you James, but I have to grin when someone proclaims that X is "the best day trader any of us have ever seen." I'm sure many of us think we're the best and the brightest, and have SAT scores, IQ tests, or P/L statements to back it up, so I'll just leave it at that.

IMHO (and personal experience) the path to success with day trading (I'm not talking about overnight trades), is to develop any system (or systematic method) that you like ... it really doesn't matter much what the system is based on. It must have the following characteristics:

1. It can be scaled up in size quickly.
2. The positions can be exited/reversed quickly, or can be hedged quickly - this minimizes losses when you're wrong.

The key to major success, is to then determine when you should increase your bet size e.g. leverage up. Once one determines when the odds favor an increased bet size, then success is eminent. Of course, this is no small feat, and often only comes with years of experience, but it really is the key to success in day trading. One can certainly make a living by banging out small gains everyday as a day trader, but if you can't quickly leverage your system, you'll never make the big money. Nobody is so smart that they "know" what is going to happen in the future ... if they think they do, well they’re just a time bomb that's going to eventually blow up their account.


Regards,

Slave2Market
 
Quote from Slave2Market:

No offense to you James, but I have to grin when someone proclaims that X is "the best day trader any of us have ever seen." I'm sure many of us think we're the best and the brightest, and have SAT scores, IQ tests, or P/L statements to back it up, so I'll just leave it at that.

IMHO (and personal experience) the path to success with day trading (I'm not talking about overnight trades), is to develop any system (or systematic method) that you like ... it really doesn't matter much what the system is based on. It must have the following characteristics:

1. It can be scaled up in size quickly.
2. The positions can be exited/reversed quickly, or can be hedged quickly - this minimizes losses when you're wrong.

The key to major success, is to then determine when you should increase your bet size e.g. leverage up. Once one determines when the odds favor an increased bet size, then success is eminent. Of course, this is no small feat, and often only comes with years of experience, but it really is the key to success in day trading. One can certainly make a living by banging out small gains everyday as a day trader, but if you can't quickly leverage your system, you'll never make the big money. Nobody is so smart that they "know" what is going to happen in the future ... if they think they do, well they’re just a time bomb that's going to eventually blow up their account.


Regards,

Slave2Market
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lack speaks truth. the brain power and trading savvy in the circle he mentions is indeed awesome. well said, otherwise marketslave.

best,

marketsurfer :)
 
Quote from LongShot:



pard me but i am not reading all this crap

i don't ant my head full of squirrels thank you :-/
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Once you're fortunate to have found a consistently winning method it is best to avoid any pollution from "new or better" ideas.
 
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