Technical analysis :useless junk science

oilfxpro · Sep 16, 2012

Quote from euclid:

You said that was junk science

You said 80% of trends fail

Exactly true!It is junk science...........It can not be used on it's own ......most currency traders use it to see the road map and take off , but their main price driver is fundamental analysis.T/a on it's own has no edge.

80 % of t/a does not produce any edge ...only when it is backed by fundamentals it does.

oilfxpro · Sep 16, 2012

Quote from Xspurt:

Yes, glad he has cleared that up and now he's about to show me how exactly he back tested the falling knife set up to show how ignorant a whore gambler I am.

What a slut!I just away for the weekend , get a life ,there is no trading on Sundays.

Xspurt · Sep 16, 2012

Quote from oilfxpro:

What a slut!I just away for the weekend , get a life ,there is no trading on Sundays.

You're back! Excellent!

Don't forget you managed to answer ND's post while conveniently skipping mine.

Now let's have a look at the exact set up and backtest results my good fellow

You have me all excited to step out of my ignorance and whoredom into your specialized knowledge.

oilfxpro · Sep 16, 2012

Quote from Xspurt:

You're back! Excellent!

Don't forget you managed to answer ND's post while conveniently skipping mine.

Now let's have a look at the exact set up and backtest results my good fellow

You have me all excited to step out of my ignorance and whoredom into your specialized knowledge.

When a price falls , it means there is no demand , if a price rises there is demand for the instrument.When there is no demand traders should not be buying , when there is excess demand traders should not be selling , so up spikes and down spikes are risky trades.
So backrests are all based on price movements atr and stochastics , supply and demand.If price rises above average daily volatility , there is demand ...otherwise choppy markets

Xspurt · Sep 16, 2012

Quote from oilfxpro:

Those counter trend moves fighting the bulls and bears , are statistically are the most unprofitable trades.I could show you 10 years of back testing to prove your ignorance.You are losing gambler.

http://www.dacharts.com/articles/_22ru**********.htm

You are specifically referring to my post on the Falling Knife set up. You will of course realize as part of your back test that the volume signal and PA are key.

With that in mind now do as you said you would and show me the exact set up you back tested and results to prove my ignorance.

It has nothing to do with ATR. It's got nothing to do with indicators like stochastics for that reacts far too slow.

Don't waffle about supply and demand - show me the back test and results for this set up all about supply and demand - that is why it reverses.

Now get on with it!

Wide Tailz · Sep 16, 2012

The purpose of the various "TA is junk" threadz is to convince newbies not to learn something that may keep it from working in the future.

The TA ecosystem has been crowded before. 40 bar breakouts used to work....

marketsurfer · Sep 16, 2012

Quote from oilfxpro:

When a price falls , it means there is no demand , if a price rises there is demand for the instrument.When there is no demand traders should not be buying , when there is excess demand traders should not be selling , so up spikes and down spikes are risky trades.
So backrests are all based on price movements atr and stochastics , supply and demand.If price rises above average daily volatility , there is demand ...otherwise choppy markets

Actually, the opposite is true, and I have the data to prove it.

My old research firm TradingMarkets has done extensive studies on price patterns. What we discovered is the ONLY edge ( if any) that exists in the stock market is buying after multiple down days, not up days. Like it or not, dats what the research revealed: http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/stocks/commentary/editorial/consecutive-up-down-closes.cfm
'
best wishes,
surf

deaddog · Sep 16, 2012

Quote from marketsurfer:

Actually, the opposite is true, and I have the data to prove it.
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/stocks/commentary/editorial/consecutive-up-down-closes.cfm
'
best wishes,
surf

I have a bit of a problem with your study.

Firstly the fixed time of one week to measure performance is a set it and forget it type of management. If you wait 4 days for the entry chances are you will manage the trade at least daily.

Secondly there is no mention of stops or any kind of planned exit except for selling after one week.

Thirdly were the 4days in a row that triggered the buy in an up, down or sideways market?

How about a study that tracks stocks breaking out to new 20 day highs, with a 2 bar trailing stop rather than a fixed time limit.

R. Raskolnikov · Sep 16, 2012

You THINK you did extensive studies but if this is what you consider extensive then all I can say is...LOL.

Quote from marketsurfer:

Actually, the opposite is true, and I have the data to prove it.

My old research firm TradingMarkets has done extensive studies on price patterns. What we discovered is the ONLY edge ( if any) that exists in the stock market is buying after multiple down days, not up days. Like it or not, dats what the research revealed: http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/stocks/commentary/editorial/consecutive-up-down-closes.cfm
'
best wishes,
surf

oilfxpro · Sep 16, 2012

Quote from Wide Tailz:

The purpose of the various "TA is junk" threadz is to convince newbies not to learn something that may keep it from working in the future.

The TA ecosystem has been crowded before. 40 bar breakouts used to work....

The t/a works threads are started by trading educators and their accomplices to convince the noobs , as an advertising campaign.Same ol clowns/accomplices have been posting on these threads.