If you run a large fund, or have longer horizon, FA helps you to manage large amount of money. If you have less than 8 figure, trading technically offers the best risk-reward ratio. My sharpe has been 3 or higher for the last 3 years. There is NO way I can do that if I trade fundamentally. Of course I might not be a good economist to understand fundamental information.
Technical analysis :useless junk science
- Thread starter oilfxpro
- Start date
brother, I was heavily involved in TA for 10 years-- loved it, made a little money, thought it worked.... but i was fooled by randomness. Then I applied the scientific method to testing it and discovered how wrong I was and how weak TA truly is as a trading tool.
surf
No, im not questioning your success, credentials or ability--- but surmise random entries would give you the same risk/reward as those based on TA. I agree, fundamental trading is also greatly flawed--- the only thing that makes sense, is to find a structural edge or understand what moves price and how. this is not something taught in a PhD or any microstructure course. surf
You didn't test rigorously enough. No one can, too many variables. Glad you have moved onto something else. Not everyone finds something that works consistently.
The problem with most traders, whether they use Price Action or TA are the same, inability to understand, inability to backtest over large enough data samples, too lazy, jumps around a great deal, too many don't go beyond the books, too many don't do blind testing(get rid of the bars and write down what Price is supposed to be doing) AND THIS IS HUGE. Indicators are supposed to behave in a certain way dealing with price like 99% of the time, when they don't, there's an opportunity, but most rather blame something, that's the American way. AND MOST open an account and just trade cause they can "feel" what the market is going to do, ROFLMAO. Marigin Call.
I started with pencil and chart paper, I learned and studied for three years before opening an account, and I was darn lucky it cost too much to do short term trading at $125 for 100 shares of IBM way back when. When I learned how to use indicators, I did them by hand for seven years, I learned why they do certains movements with price, nobody does this any more.
What indicators were NOT supposed to do was to get one into a trade and out, but to learn about relationships. You only need one good to sloppy way to get in, and then 40 rules to figure out what to do after. But too many constantly working at better entries which are only needed if you Scalp. Too many are trying to get thousands out on a one lot instead of finding a few trades that are consistent and go home. My favorite is when one has a losing trade and figuring out of extending the risk to make it profitable.
People who sell software, you think if they knew how to trade, they be hawking software?
How many traders have failed using Price Action? Bet it just as many as others do with TA.
http://www.uic.edu/classes/actg/act...tational Algorithms,Statistical Inference.pdf
two of the smartest professors. still do not do TA justice in my view.
two of the smartest professors. still do not do TA justice in my view.
Well let's give Oiler some bit of credit. He's the first trading vendor in history to openly admit to being a scammer.
Now if only all the others would come forward.
They better hope there isn't an afterlife or else they're going to have some questions to answer.................
I always figured there wasn't much money in vending anyway... unless you were one of the "big guns" like John Carter and "the blow-up artist" Robert Hoffman.
Agree with you on the factors. Of course it's not only the price itself which drives the price (though price itself too, think about people joining the rally "because the market grows") and knowing fundamental factors is a valuable knowledge.
But TA is very efficient to time entries, to gauge risk/reward etc. If one watches the market for a long enough time, I have no idea how she/he would not notice how amazingly often (too often for random action) price reacts in a certain way at certain purely technical levels. Self-fulfilling prophecy, which proves some of the big money does definitely take TA into account.
Also, price may not show you the reasons why that big money buys or sells (for that purpose knowing fundamental factors driving the given market surely better be in your arsenal), but price quite clearly shows you WHEN big money starts buying or selling so that you can simply jump on it's tail and ride it.