If you don't treat trading seriously, then you'll never have a chance. You need to adjust your attitude or you'll continue to struggle.
Technical analysis :useless junk science
- Thread starter oilfxpro
- Start date
Succesful traders understand what moves price, price itself is not sufficient despite the TA followers. Knowing the factors that effect price and the odds of these factors pushing price, prior to your entry, is the correct way to think about the market. Studying past prices is mental masterbation. surf
No. Let me explain-- Price and volume are what has happened-- once they occur its simply too late-- being one or more steps ahead of price by understanding price drivers like economic news, earnings, COT report, big players, and a host of other factors that effect price is the only way to win. surf
Have you ever successfully traded before? You do not sound like a trader. You sound more like a fund manager.
There are many ways to interpret the same economic news and the price reaction reflects the dominant view in the market, relative to market expectation before news announcement or what has been "priced". I have an advanced degree in economics and finance. I have a strong view about many corporate/macro events. But if I trade based on my own view I would have wiped out my accounts many many times.
Trade what market tells you, not what you think market should do.
09-10-12 01:01 PM
Quote from njrookie1:
coming from an academic background, i totally understood why academic research failed to find TA rule that works.
TA works in a context. 80-90% of time FA does not work. however there are those 10-20% of time traders have an edge based on TA. if you pool all data you will probably find nothing. TA helps to read/identify any trace left by big players, probably based on FA or macro economic analysis.
FA has to work through price and volume to kick in. in short-term TA is sufficient statistics for market's next move.
No. Let me explain-- Price and volume are what has happened-- once they occur its simply too late-- being one or more steps ahead of price by understanding price drivers like economic news, earnings, COT report, big players, and a host of other factors that effect price is the only way to win. surf
There are many ways to interpret the same economic news and the price reaction reflects the dominant view in the market, relative to market expectation before news announcement or what has been "priced". I have an advanced degree in economics and finance. I have a strong view about many corporate/macro events. But if I trade based on my own view I would have wiped out my accounts many many times.
Trade what market tells you, not what you think market should do.
09-10-12 01:01 PM
Quote from njrookie1:
coming from an academic background, i totally understood why academic research failed to find TA rule that works.
TA works in a context. 80-90% of time FA does not work. however there are those 10-20% of time traders have an edge based on TA. if you pool all data you will probably find nothing. TA helps to read/identify any trace left by big players, probably based on FA or macro economic analysis.
FA has to work through price and volume to kick in. in short-term TA is sufficient statistics for market's next move.
No. Let me explain-- Price and volume are what has happened-- once they occur its simply too late-- being one or more steps ahead of price by understanding price drivers like economic news, earnings, COT report, big players, and a host of other factors that effect price is the only way to win. surf
How's the JCP trade going? 
Many ways to trade buddy boy, you don't have all the answers.
Many ways to trade buddy boy, you don't have all the answers.
I'm surprised that as an academic you give TA any creedence at all. I have have several finance Phd's as friends, I have employed one, and am married to another. TA is considered noise traders by most academics. Show me one top tier journal that has ever published pr0- TA papers. There are not any. surf
PS> Yes, I do trade and have traded -- since 1990.
Quote from R. Raskolnikov:
How's the JCP trade going?
Many ways to trade buddy boy, you don't have all the answers.
No doubt, my brother. I just prefer ways that make sense, not voodoo or what the FX dealers teach--TA.
Yeah, JCP is squeezing me, it may be a loser-- I don't win on every trade, in fact, I lose alot!
surf
As I explained earlier, simple TA rule does not work. But TA helps you to read market. I am not surprised by your reaction since I have the same bias when I started trading 3.5 years ago.
Econometric analysis using price and volume data to me is just TA. Momentum factor for example is proof of TA. Your beta is my alpha.
Econometric analysis using price and volume data to me is just TA. Momentum factor for example is proof of TA. Your beta is my alpha.
Lots of things don't make sense until you understand them. It's all relative.