Technical analysis :useless junk science

Quote from oilfxpro:

orignal xero position trade

short e usd 1.2914
long gbp usd 1.6157
long e gbp 0.7996

hedge 1 closed euro usd at 1.2980 , resold at 1.2300 appx
hedge close 2 euro usd 1.2886 ,resold at 1.2902

total locked away 36 pips

resold now at 1.2913 stop 1.2949
More...

Thanks. Now let's see what you did. S EURUSD + L GBPUSD = S EURGBP. Add another L EURGBP and you're flat. I assume you entered all three at the same time and size of course. If not that makes calculation a bit more complex, but doesn't change the principle so we'll ignore it.

When you closed "hedge" EURUSD @ 1.2980 (guess that's an "oops" moment again and it was 1.2880 in reality but that's not critical here as long as you don't trade with the same "precision" :D ), you stay L GBPUSD + L EURGBP = L EURUSD, which you CLOSED @ 1.2900 by entering your "hedge" leg again. :D

Don't trust me? Check EURUSD chart and compare price/time, notice what would be your profit if you simply went L EURUSD @ 1.2880 and closed it @ 1.2900. You will be very surprised. :p

Same stuff with your second trade so it's not worse analyzing here.

Trace a few of your trades like this and you will finally understand that your "hedge" component is useless crap here and it's only place is in the trash can. :)

Congrats, you successfully traded EURUSD outright to the long side. Good stuff man, I had definite bullish bias too today. :D
 
Quote from oilfxpro:

orignal xero position trade

short e usd 1.2914
long gbp usd 1.6157
long e gbp 0.7996

hedge 1 closed euro usd at 1.2980 , resold at 1.2300 appx
hedge close 2 euro usd 1.2886 ,resold at 1.2902

total locked away 36 pips

resold now at 1.2913 stop 1.2949
More...

closed at 1.2913 for 0 pips ,
 
One more remark: you played simple EURUSD long twice, for a profit, good. But you paid a lot more spread for that by doing it through the synthetics. You don't need it, EURUSD is liquid enough, if you use reasonable stops on your trades, you will trade well and pay just 1 pip EURUSD spread for every trade.

Let the idiots on amateur forums delude themselves with "grid trading", "hedging" and other similar crap. They don't understand what they do, but "hedging" sounds cool and gives impression they do something different from simple betting on price direction. They don't and you don't do it, will be better for you this way, much better.
 
Quote from cornixforex:

Thanks. Now let's see what you did. S EURUSD + L GBPUSD = S EURGBP. Add another L EURGBP and you're flat. I assume you entered all three at the same time and size of course. If not that makes calculation a bit more complex, but doesn't change the principle so we'll ignore it.

When you closed "hedge" EURUSD @ 1.2980 (guess that's an "oops" moment again and it was 1.2880 in reality but that's not critical here as long as you don't trade with the same "precision" :D ), you stay L GBPUSD + L EURGBP = L EURUSD, which you CLOSED @ 1.2900 by entering your "hedge" leg again. :D

Don't trust me? Check EURUSD chart and compare price/time, notice what would be your profit if you simply went L EURUSD @ 1.2880 and closed it @ 1.2900. You will be very surprised. :p

Same stuff with your second trade so it's not worse analyzing here.

Trace a few of your trades like this and you will finally understand that your "hedge" component is useless crap here and it's only place is in the trash can. :)

Congrats, you successfully traded EURUSD outright to the long side. Good stuff man, I had definite bullish bias too today. :D
More...

I often hedge out of the other two and get more profits in choppy markets. , except there was no volatility.On another hedge I took profits twice on gbp usd.
 
Quote from oilfxpro:

I often hedge out of the other two and get more profits in choppy markets. , except there was no volatility.On another hedge I took profits twice on gbp usd.
More...

You should understand, that you don't really "hedge" anything. It's just a fancy term someone used to sound cool, drop it off.

What you do is open and close trades in one of the pairs used, through the synthetics (opening and closing trades in cross pairs).

When you realize it, you will also realize maybe that you are successful trader using... TA and statistics (hence you mentioned average daily range yesterday). :D

Good luck!
 
Quote from cornixforex:

You should understand, that you don't really "hedge" anything. It's just a fancy term someone used to sound cool, drop it off.

What you do is open and close trades in one of the pairs used, through the synthetics (opening and closing trades in cross pairs).

When you realize it, you will also realize maybe that you are successful trader using... TA and statistics (hence you mentioned average daily range yesterday). :D

Good luck!
More...

You can be a winner on trading probabilities , but lose it all by betting blind on technical anylysis.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NHJtLuaHxHQ&feature=relmfu
 
Quote from cornixforex:

You should understand, that you don't really "hedge" anything. It's just a fancy term someone used to sound cool, drop it off.

What you do is open and close trades in one of the pairs used, through the synthetics (opening and closing trades in cross pairs).

When you realize it, you will also realize maybe that you are successful trader using... TA and statistics (hence you mentioned average daily range yesterday). :D

Good luck!
More...

Very interesting video posted by oilfxpro. Thank you, oil.

Remember, patterns only exist in the past and continue forming even after you place a trade. In addition, anytime prior to the pattern forming, it may or may not form-- just like anytime after your entry, it can be a different outcome per Douglas. What then is the logical conclusion? TA patterns are a useless part of the puzzle.

Douglas stresses that the same pattern will produce different results over and over again. This in and of itself destroys TA better than anything I have heard from the TA brigade themselves. In fact, it is self contradictory. Patterns only exist in the past by definition-- therefore if the outcome is different, the pattern IS different-- it's not repetitive. This is just level one of the issues in the explanation. Anyone who thinks should be able to clearly see the problems with the defense.

This mark Douglas guy was built up by everyone to be such a great trader and thinker-- I have lost any respect I had for him after listening to that video. Even the TA greats cant properly defend their nonsense.
 
TA works fine for me, sorry some of you are having such a hard time finding something that works for you. Try something new or move on to another endeavor. Complaining is just a waste of time. :)
 
Quote from R. Raskolnikov:

TA works fine for me, sorry some of you are having such a hard time finding something that works for you. Try something new or move on to another endeavor. Complaining is just a waste of time. :)
More...

Junk science.What is junk science?

http://junkscience.com/what-is-junk-science ?

If you are trading educator peddling courses on technical anylysis , your only motive for opening many threads positive on technical anylysis was profit from courses , then it is junk science .

There is no harm in selling good courses than enhance trader education , but if idiots and scammers use snake oil it is annoying , and most trying to sell stuff here are failures at their game.That is why I recommend new traders buy courses from professional traders with audited statements of trading profits , that eliminates all the con merchants posting.
 
Quote from R. Raskolnikov:

TA works fine for me, sorry some of you are having such a hard time finding something that works for you. Try something new or move on to another endeavor. Complaining is just a waste of time. :)
More...

Another unknown alias with zero cred sprouting unverified statements of supposed fact with religious apologetic zeal

no, it doesn't. You are under a common delusion-- your edge is money management or something else IF you are succesful. Even Mark Douglas admits that the outcome of every pattern is different. IF this is correct, how can it work?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top