technical analysis quote from Top Trader book

[longandshort]

Are we talking actual price or probability of price? It is easy to project the actual price 6 months from now using TA. I knew last summer that in January bitcoin would rally to ath's. I bought Jan19 16 BITO calls. No quant is going to find that trade.

Wow you must be world renowned for your accurate forecasts.

 

[poopy]

Standard deviation is not probability.

By winning you're losing.

 

[Darc]

Not at all. Price is determined...therefore earnings reports have no affect on the actual movement of price. If you want to get technical, earnings reports, news, government policies will facilitate the pre-determination that is being reflected in the chart. So if you really want to extrapolate from this, one could say that the chart can be used as a predictor of these things.

Think Harry Seldon from Foundation series. It's why the renaissance fund ignored fundamentals and news entirely.

You're saying that Price has no relationship to the Fundamentals eg Earnings, Liquidity etc?

 

[wxytrader]

Alright, I am not going to get involved in any discussions since you could very easily prove your claims.

In the next few weeks I will ask you if you expect the market to go up or down with certain news events or earnings. You should have no issue getting most of them correct, right?

Let's start with some earnings, Home Depot and Alibaba tomorrow, up or down tomorrow and by how much?

Please make sure you post your predictions well before the earnings report comes out tomorrow pre market, so the post can't be edited after the fact. It wouldn't be the first time someone does something like that.

Awesome! Ok I have not been charting any of these so let's start with home depot.

Note: I am posting my projections as a C&H for simplicity for you guys.

I'm long all day here regardless of the results of the ER. The C&H based on a measured move should bring it to $480-$500 or so...I think its the height of the cup added to the breakout point.



OK Alibaba...same thing I have not been following it but again I'm long all day here as we could be seeing the basing of a C&H.

 

[wxytrader]

You're saying that Price has no relationship to the Fundamentals eg Earnings, Liquidity etc?

Nothing. Nada. The stock price is completely determined to run in cycles and the news, earnings, government regulations will all facilitate that determinism.

These cycles are baked into the chart.

 

[p0box4]

Awesome! Ok I have not been charting any of these so let's start with home depot.

Note: I am posting my projections as a C&H for simplicity for you guys.

View attachment 340293

I'm long all day here regardless of the results of the ER. The C&H based on a measured move should bring it to $480-$500 or so...I think its the height of the cup added to the breakout point.



OK Alibaba...same thing I have not been following it but again I'm long all day here as we could be seeing the basing of a C&H.

View attachment 340306

That didn't answer my question, your predictions are long term, + 6 months in both cases.

You said this:

Not at all. Price is determined...therefore earnings reports have no affect on the actual movement of price. If you want to get technical, earnings reports, news, government policies will facilitate the pre-determination that is being reflected in the chart. So if you really want to extrapolate from this, one could say that the chart can be used as a predictor of these things.

So, what does analysis says about what will happen tomorrow? According to you it's already reflected in the chart so it should easy to answer, right?

 

[wxytrader]

That didn't answer my question, your predictions are long term, + 6 months in both cases.

You said this:



So, what does analysis says about what will happen tomorrow? According to you it's already reflected in the chart so it should easy to answer, right?

I just posted my projections. ???

 

[p0box4]

I just posted my projections. ???

I guess you missed this:

That didn't answer my question, your predictions are long term, + 6 months in both cases.

So, what does analysis says about what will happen tomorrow? According to you it's already reflected in the chart so it should easy to answer, right?

 

[wxytrader]

I guess you missed this:

Price is determined to complete the pattern. It doesn't matter what the results of the ER is...its the accumulation phase. You guys need to expand your knowledge and not focus on day trading or trying to cash in on high IV...it will all even out in the end.

Find the determinism of the market and align yourself with it.

 

[Darc]

Nothing. Nada. The stock price is completely determined to run in cycles and the news, earnings, government regulations will all facilitate that determinism.

These cycles are baked into the chart.

So COVID and the subsequent injection of Liquidity in the Markets was already in your "chart cycle".

So Elon Musk's successful production/marketing of Teslas was already in your "chart cycle"?