Technical Analysis of a bubble top

protodigm · Apr 22, 2008

Anyone who has been around during the tech bubble or any other bubble.

It looks like oil/agri is in its final stages of the parabolic movement to the top.

What are the technical analysis indicators to spot the top of the oil/agribusiness bubble?

nazzdack · Apr 23, 2008

An "outside down" day is decent, especially with a sharply higher opening.

protodigm · Apr 23, 2008

outside down day? i don't know if you can recognize signs of the top just within a single day (unless a hugeass drop) but more other technical indicators that might allow someone to catch it within a week or 2.

robbie380 · Apr 23, 2008

you'll know it when you see it. this isn't it.

protodigm · Apr 23, 2008

I know this isn't it, I'm just doing the proper research so I can be confident in pulling the trigger when I do see it.

What do you mean by "outside down?" I am not familiar with that term.

http://www.wtrg.com/daily/clfclose.gif

http://tfc-charts.w2d.com/chart/RC/W

Oil is at least due for a small correction to sync with commodities.

Gold is already divergent from both oil and agriculture, it has been flat since dropping from 1000 to low 900ish.

sumosam · Apr 23, 2008

There were concerns of a strike in ?north sea. oil spill in the far east. and nigerian pipelines have been attacked.

I do know that usd is now headed up for the short to medium term, gold has responded to this. Oil should as well.

I understand the classic tell tale is an island gap.

nazzdack · Apr 24, 2008

Keep an eye on the "mainstream" media; i.e. magazine covers, newspapers, tv broadcasts, blogs and websites like this. When sentiment seems too lop-sided, be careful, be very careful.

sumosam · Apr 24, 2008

Finally, the move down is here. I see a rotation from oil/resource stocks into the financials. The big jump in the usd also helps.

I say a nice stock rally is just what the republicans need in this election year.

protodigm · Apr 25, 2008

Oil is rallying again... if it tops out again and maintains divergence with euro then maybe its time to short.

Opinions?

Alex_in_Oz · Apr 25, 2008

A few guns go off in the Persian gulf and crude rallies three bucks!

ROFL. When news like this sends crude up you know the top is in or very close to it.

I just bought a few USO puts. I need some money for a pending O/S journey to some third world country currently in recession with a militaristic idiot at the helm.
I think it's called the USA.