Technical Analysis is total rubbish! Here's the proof!

[TAfool]

I generated random numbers with a simple gaussian distribution with a positive drift and this is what I got!! I do belive price action is semi uselful however I wouldn't ever base a strategy soley on price action

Good effort but I would suggest that the comparison of randomly generated numbers is not representative of market action. There is a big difference in trying to predict future human behavior than trying to make sense of purely randomly generated numbers.

TA

 

[fordewind]

Literally, are you saying that by definition you can foretell or prophesy future market behavior ?

I ask because this is most certainly a far greater level of clairvoyance than modeling market behaviors and taking on calculated risk. If you could truly “predict” market behavior then there is no risk - just exponential profits.

Assuming we are talking about day trading, very short term - yes.Numerous things that you can define statistically have predictive value.Plenty of those things outthere.

 

[schweiz]

There is a big difference in trying to predict future human behavior than trying to make sense of purely randomly generated numbers.

If people start already from the wrong assumptions, the result can never be useful.
And the result of their wrong assumptions, can for them, proof that they are right.


PS:4 postings since 2002???? Did somebody wake you up from your wintersleep?

 

[padutrader]

Is that sarcasm? The gov has never said that markets can not be predicted.

What is forbidden is a guaranteed (or implied) return statement on a non-fixed return asset.

Just like the warning on detergent packets, "Do Not Eat", it's in place for the "less educated" among us.

TA

Warren Buffet is on record saying that if markets were random he would be a bum with a tin cup

 

[bone]

Warren Buffet is on record saying that if markets were random he would be a bum with a tin cup

Which I agree with. But in this particular case semantics are important. What I vehemently disagree with is ANY pretense to any person having a “predictive” capability in the markets. That is too definitive of a statement. Even Warren Buffet had plenty of stinkers. Profitable traders are good at taking calculated risk - but they have no literal “predictive” capability.

Again, by definition “predictive” literally means to prophesy or foretell the future. And no successful trader (over a protracted period of time) worth his or her salt would ever make such a statement. Being successful at taking on calculated risk is a different animal than possessing “predictive” powers.

 

[padutrader]

Which I agree with. But in this particular case semantics are important. What I vehemently disagree with is ANY pretense to any person having a “predictive” capability in the markets. That is too definitive of a statement. Even Warren Buffet had plenty of stinkers. Profitable traders are good at taking calculated risk - but they have no literal “predictive” capability.

Again, by definition “predictive” literally means to prophesy or foretell the future. And no successful trader (over a protracted period of time) worth his or her salt would ever make such a statement. Being successful at taking on calculated risk is a different animal than possessing “predictive” powers.

totally agree
if there were such a person who is 100% right every time, soon no one will take the other side of the transaction.
if there was only one outcome that is possible then what can the other side bet on, the person who has to pay the winner

 

[bone]

Is that sarcasm? The gov has never said that markets can not be predicted.

What is forbidden is a guaranteed (or implied) return statement on a non-fixed return asset.

Just like the warning on detergent packets, "Do Not Eat", it's in place for the "less educated" among us.

TA

CFTC Regulations 4.24(n) and 4.25: The following statement prominently displayed: “PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.”

And there’s a lot more Legal requirements to the risk disclosure requirements than I’ve stated above - but you are clearly not allowed to Outright claim, imply or even hint at literal “predictive” abilities as a CPO or CTA. It’s illegal.

 

[TAfool]

.....

PS:4 postings since 2002???? Did somebody wake you up from your wintersleep?

Haha!

I quit posting my trades and thoughts a long time ago simply because I got tired of the "T/A is crap" replies on a lot of boards. I pretty much just keep to myself but every once in a while a post or two sneaks out somewhere.

TA

 

[tomorton]

I find the TA is total rubbish threads some of the best fun, and great value considering all of it is started by some of the most ignorant traders (if traders is what they are......).

 

[murray t turtle]

Yep it is literally codified in law on the federal register - you must include in the prospectus that "past performance is no guarantee of future results".

The US government has literally outlawed "predictive" claims in terms of financial and commodity markets. The US government says that markets cannot be predicted and has outlawed saying or even hinting at representations otherwise.

%%
That may be another reason i sometimes do alien[ foreign]stocks LOL; but they're ADR, so i proved your SEC point again.But one millionaire laughed + ''past performance, is no guarantee of future results; but it is a whole lot better than nothing'' LOL Actually that is an advantage, knowing cant predict markets; blowing up an account trying to predict it did not happen the second 10 years.LOL
I was never foolish enough to think the SEC or market makers were my enemy LOL