Technical Analysis is total rubbish! Here's the proof!

[padutrader]

instead of patterns understand how buyers and sellers work.
sellers want higher prices and buyers want lower prices so the bull and bear relationship is not one of conflict but one of cooperation.
When prices drop to a point, buyers come in aggressively, bears also buy at that point since prices are too low to sell.As prices get higher bears get interested and enter,causing the breakout to become a channel.
As prices still go higher bears get aggressive and this will show up as range and then a reversal.
once a reversal takes place buyers know lower prices are coming so they stop their activities and prices move down in a vacuum.
this takes place all day long.
whether that move down, is the 3 wave down, in the corrective wave up of the the ABC correction, which is actually the 2 wave up of the impulse move down, does not matter.

What matters is that we take the trade and our way to the bank to deposit our profits
What can be more simple than that?

 

[NoodleStrudle]

Very simple, most every hedge fund and bank Prop trader has verify able track records, most anyone in that space takes a non TA approach to trading. The distinction between price action driven trader and the one who takes a more comprehensive approach has nothing to do with the source of funding nor the size of assets under management.

And of course is verification and proof absolutely essential in the decision making by human beings. I and 99% of scientists would not believe in man made climate change in the absence of non-debatable factual evidence. Any newcomer should ask him/herself the question whether the chosen technique has a reasonable chance of success. TA has provided virtually zero proof of success. The proofs of other approaches to trading are right in front of your nose, they live in Greenwich, CT and elsewhere. Those proofs are hired by top firms with decades of track record.

All we always hear from the TA crowd is "it works for me" . All the blessings to you particularly, however the TA group at large appears more like a bunch of guys who are on a long quest, need a "trading title" to hide behind do-nothing and get-nothing in order for wife and society to accept them into their circle. Any success in this realm is anecdotal at best (with very few exceptions) . The only people who have verified track records in TA land are those who sell shovels to the diggers.

Strudel... you are making incorrect/invalid/mere opinion assumptions.

>> "If TA worked today then we would have proven and audited track records from a lot more traders than we have."

a) Not all traders use TA. Where are the "proven and audited track records" of non-TA "TRADERS"? Why isn't there "a lot more"? Please, do not confuse TRADER with INVESTOR or FUND or INSTITUTIONAL MONEY. You used the word "TRADERS" plural.

b) What makes you think "a lot" of TA-based TRADERS have ANY INTEREST OR NEED WHATSOEVER in providing ANY TYPE of evidentiary documentation? If a trader has interest or need to do so, the method(s) the trader uses is not the reason for such interest or need. In fact, the proof you mention, has to do with performance. The method(s) used is/are not required (or necessary) to be disclosed.

c) Existence of, or lack of "proven and audited track records" is not a factor, nor is it an argument for or against ANY particular methodology working or not.

>> those track records exist for all those hedge fund and bank traders who base their approach on non price action alone.

These are not "traders", they are portfolio managers at best, match-maker is common. Please, do not confuse TRADER with INVESTOR or FUND or INSTITUTIONAL MONEY. You used the word "TRADERS" plural.

>> Something just does not compute and as a logical and rational being that usually raises all sorts of alarm bells for me.

Existence of, or lack of "proven and audited track records" is not a factor, nor is it an argument for or against, ANY particular methodology working or not. Family, creditors, and the US-IRS know the track record. You are alarmed that many (day)traders have no interest in proving anything to you or your hairdresser.

Spend some time learning the difference between a (day) trader, an investor, a fund, and institutional money.


>> We can agree to disagree on this one. I have no problem with that.

Good TRADING to you.

 

[NoodleStrudle]

So, magical patterns on the wall are driving large corporations and entire economies? Like the dog is wagged by its tail.

TA works.....but patterns have a very low probability of success.
A big bull bar which occurs after a reversal pattern has a very high probability of following through.
every move or swing goes through a cycle: a breakout a channel and then a tight range and then a reversal. you can see this in every swing.
sellers want higher price which the breakout gives them so they sell.which is what causes the channel which is two sided trading
if you need more or any help i am happy to oblige...no obligation no charge

 

[padutrader]

So, magical patterns on the wall are driving large corporations and entire economies? Like the dog is wagged by its tail.

price action is driven by the needs/psychology of the buyers and sellers.

there is nothing magical these are cycles driven by whether prices are attractive to be bought and sold.

 

[padutrader]

Very simple, most every hedge fund and bank Prop trader has verify able track records, most anyone in that space takes a non TA approach to trading. The distinction between price action driven trader and the one who takes a more comprehensive approach has nothing to do with the source of funding nor the size of assets under management.

And of course is verification and proof absolutely essential in the decision making by human beings. I and 99% of scientists would not believe in man made climate change in the absence of non-debatable factual evidence. Any newcomer should ask him/herself the question whether the chosen technique has a reasonable chance of success. TA has provided virtually zero proof of success. The proofs of other approaches to trading are right in front of your nose, they live in Greenwich, CT and elsewhere. Those proofs are hired by top firms with decades of track record.

All we always hear from the TA crowd is "it works for me" . All the blessings to you particularly, however the TA group at large appears more like a bunch of guys who are on a long quest, need a "trading title" to hide behind do-nothing and get-nothing in order for wife and society to accept them into their circle. Any success in this realm is anecdotal at best (with very few exceptions) . The only people who have verified track records in TA land are those who sell shovels to the diggers.

you may wait two months i will send you my trading results you can log in to my account using the investor password and even watch my live trading

 

[schweiz]

If there ever was any evidence of success by those who purely rely on past prices then it would make this entire market niche a lot more credible.

The evidence is only there for the happy few, and you are not one of them. Don't conclude each time that something does not exist because YOU don't know about it. That would be the first sign of your intelligence. These happy few make money from it because they are the minority taking money from the majority, from which you are apparently part.

All I said was that I have not heard or come across more than a handful. On the other hand there are plenty of success stories of those who complement their analysis and trade entry rational with economic and fundamental anlysis. Yes, it is more work but apparently a lot more rewarding.

See, you confirm my arguments:"All I said was that I have not heard or come across more than a handful."
For me it is not more rewarding as a daytrader. As you also write "apparently" it means you don't know it from own experience but from another source. Whereas I speak from personal experience.

Why I unfortunately do not lend much credibility to your claims is because seldomly do successful people see a need to call others idiots. It is usually highly insecure individuals who know full well that their approach is not working and who are afraid that their only needle in the hey stack gets debunked.

When I wrote you are an idiot I got 2 likes, from which one was from Xela. If you would follow her postings you would know what and/or who she is. Her like confirms that I posted the right conclusion. I saw in the meantime that your English is also not perfect. I marked the error in red.

About TA not working: you got confused.
Because TA does not work for the majority it does not proof that is does not work. It only proofs it does not work for the majority. The reason why is does not work is not because of TA, but because of the person who is trying to understand TA correctly.

 

[NoodleStrudle]

And guess what drives the needs and psychology of the buyers and sellers? It gets back to my point : those trading based on price action alone are like the schmucks on the street that get called by their bankers and are told to get in on that fantastic upcoming IPO......last in line....on a shitty deal

price action is driven by the needs/psychology of the buyers and sellers.

there is nothing magical these are cycles driven by whether prices are attractive to be bought and sold.

 

[NoodleStrudle]

Sure you can do that, as long as the underlying technology ensures you will not have back dated timestamps, removed losing trades, or injected fictitious trades, something most TA snake oil salesmen champion to do...

you may wait two months i will send you my trading results you can log in to my account using the investor password and even watch my live trading

 

[NoodleStrudle]

So two likes qualifies calling other idiots? How old are you? And I do not think you even got a single point I made. Can you point to a single account of a trader who uses pure price action with a respectable 5 year or longer track record that is audited,, otherwise verified through credible sources or who has been hired by a highly respectable financial institution where such company's due diligence points to proper vetting. Can you name even a single individual? I can point you to probably over 500 traders in public domain who have been highly successful via non TA trading approaches.

The claim "I am successful that's all it matters to me" or "just because you don't know any does not mean there aren't any" is as stupid an argument as saying "just because you have never seen a beaver fucked by an elephant does not mean it never happened" . Well probability theory tells me it most likely never happened.

Any TA apostle who struck it rich from price action trading alone would die to have his trading record audited and shown to the world. Why there hardly isn't any? Because most likely such individuals don't exist.

I rest my case. I know an angry and frustrated TA crowd will never allow anyone to debate their questionable track record. Much easier to shout down the naysayers.

The evidence is only there for the happy few, and you are not one of them. Don't conclude each time that something does not exist because YOU don't know about it. That would be the first sign of your intelligence. These happy few make money from it because they are the minority taking money from the majority, from which you are apparently part.



See, you confirm my arguments:"All I said was that I have not heard or come across more than a handful."
For me it is not more rewarding as a daytrader. As you also write "apparently" it means you don't know it from own experience but from another source. Whereas I speak from personal experience.


When I wrote you are an idiot I got 2 likes, from which one was from Xela. If you would follow her postings you would know what and/or who she is. Her like confirms that I posted the right conclusion. I saw in the meantime that your English is also not perfect. I marked the error in red.

About TA not working: you got confused.
Because TA does not work for the majority it does not proof that is does not work. It only proofs it does not work for the majority. The reason why is does not work is not because of TA, but because of the person who is trying to understand TA correctly.

 

[padutrader]

Sure you can do that, as long as the underlying technology ensures you will not have back dated timestamps, removed losing trades, or injected fictitious trades, something most TA snake oil salesmen champion to do...

sit and watch me trade live..... that is what an investor password means.
And why on earth would a successful trader want to get verified or audited when he can spend his free time golfing or just enjoying himself? Why on earth should i convince you or anybody else?

trading is ridiculously easy for those who understand some basic important concepts and a lot of traders will be laughing at your ridiculous contention that technical analysis does not work