Technical Analysis is total rubbish! Here's the proof!

[NoodleStrudle]

Ironically OP's first post exhibits more knowledge and skills that are directly applicable to trading than 8 out 10 ET guys will ever grasp. Obviously he did not disprove TA but he still made some very valid points.

What a worthless thread

 

[FXbeachbum]

I agree, I don't know any trader that does not use it in one form or another. Maybe I meant to say that pattern recognition is hard to weed out from randomness. I myself always like to graph a chart see where a stock has been, momentum etc.. however I think pattern trading will diminish in the future as we see the world become more computerized. After all TA was invented before we had computers and since computers were invented it has been a controversial topic.

It is initially. For me I had to look at thousands and thousands of charts, multiple times. I really don’t know how many charts I looked at the count is really high though on multiple time frames, with different indicators no indicators, with support and resistance drawn, with angled trend lines drawn. Hell well everyone is and was playing games, browsing social media, binge watching etc. I was busy looking at charts to pass time both phone and PC. It takes a lot of looking for some to understand. Personally now I like my charts almost pure PA and raw I can see support and resistance without a drawn line, trends without a drawn line. I’ll snap them on sometimes and when I do it’s a color barely off my chart background so it’s hardly noticeable and not distracting from PA.

To tell you the truth I don’t see a lot of patterns that are familiar in the typical sense but I see certain ones that have caught my eye and repeat over and over while missing the others.

I don’t see head and shoulders per se. I see an uptrend that was making higher highs then makes a lower high and has broken an angled trend line and often the new move breaks a horizontal support and resistance line at the same area, signaling a trend reversal after confirmation. technically a head and shoulders I suppose but not that I just saw a HD or what I was looking for. Similar thing with double bottoms tops I see failure for the next trend move to surpass the previous, it’s like I see it then I’m like oh dang I guess that was a double bottom, even though again I wasn’t looking to recognize a double bottom.

I don’t see a bull/bear flag/pennant, In fact I don’t know the difference between a pennant and flag any more but IDGAF what it’s called and if someone wants to call me out to show case their knowledge to strangers I could care less. I see a trend that has turned into a time correction base(sideways movement) or a price pull back from current trends before continuing in the same direction.

I see rounding bottoms maybe the only thing I see technically the way it’s called. But then again I notice these signals only when they’ve come back to support and resistance. Like hey this trend has rounded out and is now Back to a resistance area.

It’s about the only patterns I see but it’s what has stuck out to me after viewing and playing with thousands of charts. Then I see the candles that actually take place near these areas and give me the confirmation. Mostly engulfing, morning/evening star in nature. It’s a lot of info to write and some I can’t even describe in words(I suck at writing what I’m thinkin in a way that makes sense) I just have to see it. Sure I’m missing a dozen or so patterns most likely but who cares I see what I see and it presents opportunity.

 

[NoodleStrudle]

Sure, but I guess you gotta give OP a little more credit here. I would, for example, argue that anyone who trades purely based on price action alone in today's environment is by definition behind the curve. Price reflects trades, trades reflect views and views reflect forward looking analysis. Someone who trades based on price will be the last one in the queue Someone else, who knows how to interpret shifts in fundamentals and economics will be ahead of the curve and basically place his chips before the rest of the price group or large players enter. Obviously that means statistically speaking the latter person will have a much larger edge purely trade entry wise speaking.

Those who trade on price action often times wait for confirmation from purely fictitious indicators that really have almost zero validity. But the emphasis here is on confirmation. That means delay and half the times means trading when a "trend" is already in play for some time and the longer one waits the lower the edge becomes.

Congratulations -- but look up Monte Carlo analysis.
Poke the {ReCalc} button on your keyboard a thousand times, and "call yourself an Institute."
If you put in just a little effort and thought, you'll be posting a different story in no time at all.

[cue Christopher Walken voiceover]
"Hey! This T/A stuff is the shit! Look what I just made!"

T/A is nothing but moving-average pairs of price+volume in snapshots of time.
How you choose to use it, or project it forward -- that is all on you.
For some, the biggest part of TREND+Noise is the trend part.
For others, it's the noise.

Today, you found the noise. Don't miss the trend.

 

[NoodleStrudle]

It's the same loop except you did not write it but it was written for you under the hood.

I won't comment on the TA aspect, but here's a shot at making your code snippet R-like, with vectorization... no need for a for-loop.

s<-100;n<-256;sd<-.2;t<-1:n;z<-s*rnorm(n,0,1)
price<-s+cumsum(z*sd/sqrt(s))
plot(t,price,type="l")

 

[NoodleStrudle]

.... Or actually start reading and understanding how the world spins, what it means when Trump puts up tariffs or when Russian aluminum gets sanctioned. Because real traders with real pnl make millions/billions off the back of such analysis each and every single day, while others made it their profession to dance tango in front of the proverbial steam roller.

Guess I should toss away all my automation and 40 years were lame, time to get darts and sneak a chart.

 

[NoodleStrudle]

You did not even get his point. His point was that despite having drawn the lines without much care on random price charts makes someone be right every now and then. Humans have the humoring ability to explain away losses and see all sorts of things in the occasional gains.

Your lines are drawn incorrectly. Thank you for your time.

 

[NoodleStrudle]

Right and judging from how many posts some have here and how agitated they are because someone disagrees with them it seems those few who derive true alpha from TA are most likely not to be found on ET. Goodness what a bunch of haters. Why not engaging based on numbers, analysis and intelligent thought process. Instead the dumb "just because you can't do it does not mean nobody can"

i guess not everyone can see it or use it. That’s like saying black jack is a rubbish game for a casino since the dealer doesn’t win every hand or every players game. TA or PA is meant for odds, winning percentages and risk rewards.

Problem is most people think that TA is meant to be a highly accurate predictor of markets. Then they form an opinion and get married to their opinion.

 

[NoodleStrudle]

If I sold trading advice I would also definitely keep the myth of the holy grail alive

Just my own observation with client work over several years - many traders that I have crossed paths with are using technical analysis studies incorrectly. There's quite a bit of ignorance and misapplication in the field of TA. That's what I've seen - YMMV.

 

[NoodleStrudle]

... And so is your English. How can you get TA right if you can't even spell or write in basic, coherent ways.

All depends of yor knowledge (or lack of it) and what and how you do. If you do the wrong thing, the result will be accordingly.

This is you:

This is me:

Willy, what you posted is silly. So you did not steel your name.

 

[NoodleStrudle]

And most "experienced" traders who primarily rely on TA and blow out time and again ultimately shoot themselves. Take that from J. Livermore

I'm sure most people use TA wrongly. Most new traders appear to see an uptrend and immediately shout "Whoopee! How can I get short on this?"