Technical Analysis Doesn't Work

[marketsurfer]

Quote from jack hershey:

thankyou for making my point.

As I stated the paper had a losy topic and the way the topic was reseacched (ertefacts..blah...bah) made any result other than a nebulous one be a possibility.

Anyone can read the paper and see it is not a contribution of any sort at all

The seven page bibliography bounds their research that let them to a hypothesis and to a tsting of their hypothesis. In the introduction they point out how others did studies and them mention on study of 92 studues and its results. This study and its results are something anyone can use to build upon. their is nothing to build upon, however by the results of Batchelor and Raymar.

Is that all the TA community has??

Some people know the extent of what the TA community has. Others do not.

I assume that you know the depth and breadth of TA and the TA community. For me, it has been my focus for about 50 or so years.

Categorically for me, "great traders you have never heard of" is where the best and most relevant knowledge, skills and expertise lies. Most have heard of the Wizards and the newsmakers and champoin vendors.

This is a small part of the TA community. I am very happy to say that there is a recognition in this small subset of the need to stay in touch and share. What makes it particularly nice is that a lot of the things of and in the broader TA community are no longer on the table.

The community you favor is not the TA community and certainly not the subset of the TA community that I favor most. There is simply no overlap in our interests.

I believe that it is a good idea for anyone to take an interest in others and what they do and prefer. I am doiung a lot in the quiet TA community subset of the traders who are great and who don't really get around in public too much. Most are not speakers and most only appear briefly once in a while. At such times when several are together it is a very pleasant and free exchange of ideas and mutual interests. Stories abound. sometimes it gets serious as well.

The many facets of the TA community are really facinating as well. The way TA and it's community relate to the financial industry, its traditions and especially its othodoxy is one of the most rare and complex long term economic relationships that has ever occurred. It is a delightful thing to participate in and to observe.

So far it media has not recognized even the tip of the iceberg in trms of the wealth of stories. Most all great TA traders take a walk right out of the financial industry. There are never any reasons to stay.

You represent the financial industry. Look at the Derman interview. A parallel would be Tim at TE and him interviewing a great TA trader. I have only seen about four such live sessions and the interviewees only total under a dozen different poeple.

They all turned out the same way. Tim sort of dropped out and the interviewees interviewed each other. Luckily most of the time after the formal interview things went of for quite a while informally. These people aren't vendors and they usually are running OPM by invitation, selectively, and they do lay off money to others occassionally.

Right now there are some discussions going on about getting pertinent sets of Q's together to be able to have some good public interview sessions.

What would it be like if some great Q's were asked of some great TA traders?

Is that all there is in the TA community? Not one of the Q's to ask.

i have no issue with this, jack. if there are hidden mystics who can foretell the future, etc--- i can't debate their existence.

the issue here, jack, is that you presented this paper as supportive of TA----now you have reversed your original ascertation when shown the facts. thats what the problem is, nothing else.

best wishes,

surf

 

[trader225]

Quote from jack hershey:


The seven page bibliography bounds their research that let (sic) them to a hypothesis and to a tsting (sic) of their hypothesis.

Would it have been better with a seventy page bibliography? Wouldn't unbounded research require an unbounded bibliography?

 

[feb2865]

Pure price action seems to be the basis of many of the more sucessful ET posters, who continually say you have to set aside the indicators, and trade what you see. S/R seems to have value, but I have not personally seen statistical testing of this. I don't use it, so am open to its potential value.

So now we're having some sort of understanding

I have an open mind about things and as I mentioned before, I am not ranting at you nor debating whether TA is useless or not after all TA, fundamental analysis astrology, are just labels in which people tends to take sides, falling on their asses trying to sustain beyond reasonable doubt their position. Like exactly what's happening here.

I am taking about experience, and I started off the pits back in 1980

I (and some of the people who started with me) could care less about statistics, averages, back testing, forward testing, underwater testing, etc. All we care is what's happening on price...as is happening....You either go home happy with a pocket full of change or with a minor scratch trying to save your sorry ass from the Morgan Stanley's on the pit(which by the way still have a lot of push in the markets) who are not worth to fight against Other than that, the rest is pretty much like reading tea leaves.

You want to know statistics??I am a living proof...27 years and I trade for fun nowadays...do I have to prove it??I really don't care whether anybody believe it or not.

So if you want to talk about price without a T/A label and that's makes you happy, that's ok

But in my particular case and I know maybe other is here, understanding the laws of supply and demand and how price leads eventually to either side is all you need to know to be successful in all markets

So, for whatever system, method, ect you have, if it doesn't lead you to spot shifts in supply and demand and have a plan, eventually will be worthless.

Because markets are just that, supply and demand moving form one corner to the other.

Don't cluster price action/support and resistance into a useless boring and no value measurement or testing, because is the only thing that will never go out of style.

Ok , what happened this year Feb 27 2007??do you care to remember??


all this little "systems" extensively backtested and water-proof tested....all of the sudden they devlop a boobo??? oh poor guy he/she though that his averages will save him from the sell off.

Or, how about the crash of 87??? Have you ever heard that some people even committed suicide???Have you ever wonder where this money went after all?? All in one morning

What happened with the "systems" back then???

There's a secret

while we're busy here trying to debate whether T/A is useful or not and some even claim that they have found an "edge"(I heard that many times) guess what?

The Dow is shifting from 12,000 to 14,000

The sterling is shifting from 1.70 to 2.00

etc etc

you know what that means??

New participants with all kind of bad/good trading habits are coming in/out of the markets, just remember, the markets are not only for daytraders, there's all kind of traders

So now your "system" is getting behind. So you need to "adjust" to make it work because you had three losses in a row and something is not right??(and I heard a "guru" saying once that his trick or treat moving average will be adjustable for all markets conditions...oh brother!!!)


isn't that a bit of a hassle??

Learn how to read the price. If you don't like charts, well read the tape. I still do.

Identify points of change/oscillations in price - Pivotal points(not to be confused with pivot points) and act accordingly:


***** as is happening*****

Don't even breath, just pull the trigger. That's how you trade price.


After that, let it go...save your ass as much as you can if things go sour and hope and pray that the trade goes your way

after all, the real name of this game is SPECULATION

 

[kidPWRtrader]

Quote from marketsurfer:

yes, hindsight is 100% accurate. the issue is extrapolating the past ( TA by definition is the past, otherwise it wouldnt exist) into the future.

one basic, timely and simple example--- how is volume going to help you with the ability to hide orders, black pools of liquidity, and or fundees moving vast somes at will--- you are only deluding yourself if you think you see everything. seriously.



surf

You said it yourself many many times. Money management.

No method yields 100%. You yourself said that money management can alone produce a successful strategy. Ok, now add in some other variables including some analysis of price and volume that allow you to take a stance in the market where the odds are in your favor in either probability or profit (expected value). Then, perhaps add another criteria for the big picture. This may be fundamental analysis or trend.

If you are worried about black pools, hidden money, or fundies... then there are ways to trade around that too. Don't trade near earnings or options expirations. Limit your playing field to where institutions can't compete on the same level.

For me... trading strong industries in strong illiquid stocks seems to work pretty good with my capital. I scan for basic trend qualifiers. Do a visual scan for price setups where I believe I can tell the story in volume. Then, I take a stab at the market with a very small sum of money.

I scale out into resistance and tighten stops reducing my risk as soon as the position swings in my favor.

Minus minute details that you dont need in the first place, this is the basics of a successful system.

I have concrete tools to identify my trend, my setup, and my dollars risked (ie, moneymanagement). I also know my competition.

I am not an experienced trader and will never ever claim to be a guru. (you can probably tell from my name that im young)The biggest thing I have seen in this game and the homework I've done on it (and I've done a lot of homework for my age) is that no one will reveal to you a method.

But, the tools are all out there and so are the elements needed for a good system. All are readily accessible; And when properly used, the sky's the limit.

I am not even going to argue if it works or not, I can't prove that it does or doesn't and neither can anyone else. Patterns appear, patterns fade, markets trend with volitility and sometimes stability, markets chop, and markets flatline.

All conditions need to be adapted to and no single method will work in all of the conditions.

 

[rcanfiel]

Quote from Landis82:

You really have a great difficult admitting that you are WRONG.
It is clear for everyone to see.

Paul Tudor Jones is quoted by Jack Schwager in "Market Wizards" on Page 130 attributing much of his success and approach to the use of Elliott Wave Theory.

Instead of admitting that you were WRONG about Paul's use of Elliott Wave ( which most traders are well aware of ), you instead have a "temper-tantrum" and continue to go off on absurd rants.

And your huge Ego is really quite telling when you reference an interview of PTJ that you picked-out . . . as if it is the ONE and ONLY interview of PTJ in the history of mankind, and no other interviews ( such as the one by Schwager in "Market Wizards" ) count, or even exist.

Time to grow up, my friend.

temper tantrum? go back on both threads and see the dozens of names you threw, so I enjoined you on a few.

And have you forgotten you said you put me on ignore? At least be consistent.

The interview was the first one on top of a google search, and came up per YOUR strong suggestion. The man gives a lengthy core dump of his philosophy and what he uses to trade, and Elliot is nowhere to be found. But numerous other things are. Thus it is easy to conclude that at best, EQ is a fraction.

And why did you ignore the interview as I sent it to you? This isn't pinochle. You don't trump an interview with another. Given the one I sent was much later than your MW interview, it is quite likely that PTJ realized it was relative useless with EQ, and factored it out or greatly diminished it in his trading. But a nonmention does not bode well for your claim of the centrality of EW to PTJ.

There is no ego on this end. But if you again read your posts, yours comes shining through.

 

[ProfLogic]

Quote from rcanfiel:

Pure price action seems to be the basis of many of the more sucessful ET posters, who continually say you have to set aside the indicators, and trade what you see. S/R seems to have value, but I have not personally seen statistical testing of this. I don't use it, so am open to its potential value. [/B]

This can't be rcanfiel writing this. The same guy that degrades his post to name calling and ridiculing those of us that use 95% pure price action in our methods. He must have found religion.

 

[bigbadbaz]

Quote from jack hershey:

thankyou for making my point.

Well someone has to you silly old man.. you just backflipped on your previous statement.. there are smart drugs for Alzheimer's Jack.. you don't have to stay in a state of confusion

 

[Cy_M]

Quote from marketsurfer:

yes, hindsight is 100% accurate. the issue is extrapolating the past ( TA by definition is the past, otherwise it wouldnt exist) into the future.

one basic, timely and simple example--- how is volume going to help you with the ability to hide orders, black pools of liquidity, and or fundees moving vast somes at will--- you are only deluding yourself if you think you see everything. seriously.



surf

TA is not the past but rather the past to present. Measuring the weakness or the strength of the supply or demand is not interpolating.
You do not need to know 100% of everything that is effecting the price such as all aspects of the vol. or what goes on in the black pools to measure the S&D, although if you did it would help. Additionally there is nothing to stop you from having access to that info. My prog. has the ability to sniff out any size order(of the ones that show up on the T&S) and I do use it very effectively in my favor.
Now, if you are not able to effectively use all these mines of data to measure the supply and demand to a prudent probability and statistically improve the odds to your favor, it does not prove the none existence of the science or the necessary tools or knowledge.
In fact, it is a blessing that 95% of the traders like yourself do not believe in TA or do not know how to effectively use it in their favor.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Cy_M:

TA is not the past but rather the past to present. Measuring the weakness or the strength of the supply or demand is not interpolating.
You do not need to know 100% of everything that is effecting the price such as all aspects of the vol. or what goes on in the black pools to measure the S&D, although if you did it would help. Additionally there is nothing to stop you from having access to that info. My prog. has the ability to sniff out any size order(of the ones that show up on the T&S) and I do use it very effectively in my favor.
Now, if you are not able to effectively use all these mines of data to measure the supply and demand to a prudent probability and statistically improve the odds to your favor, it does not prove the none existence of the science or the necessary tools or knowledge.
In fact, it is a blessing that 95% of the traders like yourself do not believe in TA or do not know how to effectively use it in their favor.

would you consider what you do more tape reading than TA?

thanks, surf

 

[ghostzapper]

Quote from marketsurfer:

thanks, surf

smurf, you gutless POS loser. Why on earth would you delete your post that "plagiarism is a crime" on michaelscotts thread?

Are you really so much of a ass kisser that you couldn't even stand up to what you know is wrong ?

smurf = gutless loser.