Making bets based on "whatever -- it doesn't matter?" I think you may have pinpointed why you are down for the year. I'm not being flippant. Unfortunately, I'm guessing that neither are you.
Technical Analysis Doesn't Work
- Thread starter rcanfiel
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the retail guy has no edge. this is fact--- my weak performance thus far has nothing to do with it. why would it matter, if you have no edge, what the trade is based on??
rcanfiel:
WHAT DO YOU WANT US TO SAY IN ORDER TO DRAW A CONCLUSION TO THIS COMPLETELY NONSENSE THREAD????
Ok! You are right! Now go home to your books and your scientific studies and let us traders use TA, FA or whatever we were using before you started this stupid thread!
Please leave us alone!!! PLEEEASEE !!!!
WHAT DO YOU WANT US TO SAY IN ORDER TO DRAW A CONCLUSION TO THIS COMPLETELY NONSENSE THREAD????
Ok! You are right! Now go home to your books and your scientific studies and let us traders use TA, FA or whatever we were using before you started this stupid thread!
Please leave us alone!!! PLEEEASEE !!!!
So then, if you were pitted against an experienced boxer in the ring, you would opt to be blindfolded and just punch the air randomly hoping to connect? Based on what you just wrote, this is precisely the boxing equivalent of your current view of trading the markets.
very bad analogy, tdog. but you know that....
how about--- the chart is rolling over, i'll short---as a better example. chart looks like its rolling over, trader shorts--it might keep going down, it might not--no one knows---- how is this type of trading giving one an edge? it might work, it might not as every entry for any reason--hence my point about position sizing and money management.
Position sizing and money management are critical because you are dealing with uncertainty. It is essential to survival. That part goes without saying. However, it does not follow that, just because you are faced with uncertainty, you should throw your hands in the air and say "Whatever," insofar as directional bias is concerned. If it is this black and white for you, so all-or-nothing, then perhaps therein lies your issue.
EDIT: You also referenced shorting when a chart "rolled over." I'm not sure exactly what that means, but presumably you have predefined criteria (either subjective or objective; personally, I favor the objective variety) for going long or short based on recent price action. It is sure to be imperfect. You won't even have a legitimate probability distribution of the potential outcomes. However, you may have a small "balance of probability" running in your directional favor. That's perhaps the best that any of us can do. It is better than nothing. And don't forget, Mr. Man of Science, statistics as a science is far better at explaining the past than it is at predicting the future. But I'm guessing that you have figured that out by now. I think that statistical science is a far better tool at assessing the efficacy of a trading strategy than being the actual strategy itself. Are we going in circles?
Ok...I actually see your point and agree with some things.
As I mentioned many times...I don't use indicators and I do know this TA debate is really only about indicators.
Have I used indicators in the past?
Yes.
Was I profitable when using those indicators?
Yes.
Was I incorporating other market info to help in my use of the indicators?
Yes.
My point is this...I haven't met ONE trader in my +15 years of trading with real money that purely uses an indicator with no other variables involved (psychology, money management, fundamentals, seasonal tendencies et cetera).
That's my point is it seems like your trying to find someone that purely uses indicators with no other inputs in their trade decisions.
Please correct me if I'm wrong.
If I'm not wrong...
I wish you all the luck in trying to find someone like that because I've never met a trader like that and such may be the reason why you will never find such evidence involving indicators.
This is a problematic aspect for system designers when they meet profitable traders because the system designer cannot code or has too much difficulty in trying to code in those other variables.
The main problem is the most after a few months of using indicators will begin to naturally see the importance of discipline, money management, properly capitalized, cost of trading (fees), understanding the price action et cetera in their trading results.
Note: They are using other variables but just don't consider them critical aspects of their trading until later when they get more trading experience.
It's a natural trading process and if you have an account deep enough or your lucky enough to survive the first critical year of trading...
You begin to incorporate those other inputs into your trading.
This is the reality of trading (no theory junk).
Once again, if you can find someone that's purely using indicators via a method that would prompt you to say TA works prior to them naturally getting to the point in their trading when other inputs begin to gain importance...
Good luck.
Also, I strongly disagree with marketsurfer views that once other inputs are involved it becomes subjective (art form) due to the fact that the commonly known inputs or variables that I mentioned above can be rule based and quantified.
Those variables are essential aspects of successful trading and when he implies that if those variables are used to enhance the performance of any TA method...
They will taint the results (my words and not his) is absurd.
Last of all, you are a system designer, your the last person on this planet someone want's to prove (give you their method) that they have an edge especially if they fear they will lose that edge.
I'm done with this thread now.
Mark
(a.k.a. NihabaAshi) Japanese Candlestick term
Can't we just verify the track records of the pro and the cons?
That would make the discussion much easier because only those who are really profitable would be allow to continue this thread.
If nobody is profitable we could allow the two who makes the smallest losses to continue.
That would make the discussion much easier because only those who are really profitable would be allow to continue this thread.
If nobody is profitable we could allow the two who makes the smallest losses to continue.
Zapper . . . Or is it still Rubber-Bird, or RubberBong-Hit?
Shouldn't you be working on yet another "The S&P Has Topped Thread" for Baron so as to keep the web-activity up on ET? You make .05 cents for everytime someone posts on an ET thread, right?
Great source of income, my friend.
Keep up the great work!
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