He's got some nerve questioning your veracity waggie.
Glad to see you finally discovered a few of your own serious character flaws.
Hopefully, you will now seek the proper care for yourself. good luck.
Technical Analysis Doesn't Work
- Thread starter rcanfiel
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Hopefully, you will now seek the proper care for yourself. good luck.
Hi,
I do know he's a system designer that has tested and researched +1,500 systems.
However, I do not know the details of the 1% stuff he's found to have an edge nor do I know what's involved in his own system designs.
I do know (its obvious) that he's looking for evidence that something works.
Does he plan on using it himself or does he plan on incorporating or improving his own system designs with something you show him that works.
My point, any system designer that's running around on a war path at ET via shouting it doesn't work and prove it to me that it does...
You need to be very careful about what you give him/her especially since he's tested/researched +1,500 systems, designs stuff that he calls his own and has a fee-based website involving system designs.
Yes, s/r analysis and trendline analysis are TA methods but some consider such an art form while others are using specific rules for entry and exit when using such.
Yep, there's threads at ET that saids "Does Trendlines Work?", "Does S/R or Pivot Point Analysis Works?".
Some people are inside the box via their own choice.
Mark
I asked someone what was the deal with TA once and why everyone used it. The person I asked looked back at me and said we watch TA because everybody else does. That is so true too. Indicators and charts really don't mean a thing but if you have enough people believe in it the indicators and charts start to mean something.
As for its usefulness I think TA is very useful. Because traders are always trying to find a rational reason for why the market did this or that (It came right down to the 50% retracement then rallied up to the 440 resistance and settled at the 100 day moving average) they tend to blame it on the charts or the indicators if there isn't a fundamental factor to blame it on. They need something to trade off of and those 2 things are what they trade off of.
As for its usefulness I think TA is very useful. Because traders are always trying to find a rational reason for why the market did this or that (It came right down to the 50% retracement then rallied up to the 440 resistance and settled at the 100 day moving average) they tend to blame it on the charts or the indicators if there isn't a fundamental factor to blame it on. They need something to trade off of and those 2 things are what they trade off of.
i believe TA appeals to left brain artist types, whereas other methods appeal to right brain rational pragmatic types. the right/left brain analogy may be outdated, but the asertation remains.
TA also appeals to a traders search for the easy way to riches. what could be easier or more fun than a chart? i see some of the FX dealers even offer "trading on the chart". talk about a seductive method of the dealer taking your money.
surf
TA also appeals to a traders search for the easy way to riches. what could be easier or more fun than a chart? i see some of the FX dealers even offer "trading on the chart". talk about a seductive method of the dealer taking your money.
surf
If you dont trade off the chart, what do you use.
And please do not say fundamental analysis which has the same flaws as technical analysis.
And please do not say fundamental analysis which has the same flaws as technical analysis.
I was a graduate student for 3.5 years, and did undergrad science work for 4 years. I and many others can assure you that academic institutions publish studies in both directions, as they are not profit motivated. There is a screaming absence of studies showing that tech indicators or Fib/Gann/EW have significant longterm outperform, which is in itself, instructive
In addition, mags like "Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities" and "Futures" regularly publish articles where un/known individuals teach or try to show new applications of existing methods, like Bollinger Bands, etc. Most of course, don't go beyond a few well-chosen examples. The ones that do provide longterm results are worth reading. Of course, there is the danger of someone who performs all sorts of permutations on an indicator, and publishes the 1 or 2 that do best. Any statistical sampling over large numbers of permutations will show some that do better than others. But there is statistical testing to help weed out this possibility.
On the contrary. You are basically a baby that resorts to name calling, name dropping, and finally retreating by "and now I shall put you on ignore."
I consider you as little more than a crybaby, to use your methodology.
Just your stupid statement such as after a particular point of the 4th wave, that there is only one outcome dissipates all your credibility. Of course, you did not address this nor the interview, but went on your own search instead.
I consider you as little more than a crybaby, to use your methodology.
Quote from NihabaAshi:
"I just want to get you on record exactly what you mean by anecdotal evidence while you consider someone's success in trading the pattern for many years with verifiable proof not good enough as evidence. "
Anecdotal is anytime it is based on someone's opinion, rather than on statistical testing on a large enough sample to verify its truth.
For example, when someone is "successful trading the pattern for many years", this leaves such problems as:
1) Was the success possibly due more to money management or other techniques? i.e., did he hold & hope or take prudent losses? Did he use have a magical touch with cutting losses and letting profits run? There is a theory that one can use random entries/exits and still make money with prudent money management....
2) Was the trader really successful or just pumping himself up, as is the case with most ET traders?
3) Was the trader lucky? When you have 1000 traders, some of them can have a multiyear lucky streak, just due to basic probability.
4) CTA performance results are not encouraging, as most of them favor TA methods, but are either negative or barely positive, and that is biased favorably by those who go bust/out of business each period and no longer report results
Again, anecdotal is not a reliable method to prove the vailidty of TA. This is the problem of alternative "medicine" and other fields.
"I just want to get you on record exactly what you mean by anecdotal evidence while you consider someone's success in trading the pattern for many years with verifiable proof not good enough as evidence. "
Anecdotal is anytime it is based on someone's opinion, rather than on statistical testing on a large enough sample to verify its truth.
For example, when someone is "successful trading the pattern for many years", this leaves such problems as:
1) Was the success possibly due more to money management or other techniques? i.e., did he hold & hope or take prudent losses? Did he use have a magical touch with cutting losses and letting profits run? There is a theory that one can use random entries/exits and still make money with prudent money management....
2) Was the trader really successful or just pumping himself up, as is the case with most ET traders?
3) Was the trader lucky? When you have 1000 traders, some of them can have a multiyear lucky streak, just due to basic probability.
4) CTA performance results are not encouraging, as most of them favor TA methods, but are either negative or barely positive, and that is biased favorably by those who go bust/out of business each period and no longer report results
Again, anecdotal is not a reliable method to prove the vailidty of TA. This is the problem of alternative "medicine" and other fields.
Good defense, you laid out all the reasons why you will never take any evidence contrary to your opinion. Studies that support you are good, evidence against you is luck, money management, randomness, skewed or biased.
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