Quote from bootstrap:
...so TA doesn't work? but you don't include Price Action in TA?
are you for real?...
First of all, to understand the between the lines statements by
rcanfiel you need to know one key fact about him...
He knows TA works and has gone on record here at EliteTrader.com to state that TA has value via using support/resistance analysis or trendline analysis.
Yet, he didn't go into any supportive details to prove why he felt there was value in s/r analysis or trendline analysis.
Knowing the above puts a different light upon his current thread.
What is he really trying to say?
* He is talking about
indicators ONLY even though he prefers to just say
Technical Analysis is Useless.
* He is talking about the use of traditional indicators and not anything involving something that's been customized as a blackbox system.
Reason why he doesn't discuss
systems is that he's a system developer and has gone on record to state he has found value (it had an edge) in about 1% of the stuff he's tested.
* He has excluded price action only TA methods and there's a reason to such exclusion.
The most successful traders I have met in person that are profitable for many years and still are along with watching them trade in person on a few occasions...
These are traders using price action only TA methods in combo with something else.
These are the types of traders that causes a system developer
without proven system that's profitable to question his/her own efforts about the route they have choosen when they see what the other guy/gal is doing that's profitable.
That in itself (many price action only TA methods) makes it very difficult to blackbox or to verify other than viewing the trader's profit/loss statements.
* There are many traders at ET posting their profit/loss statements showing consistent profits and they are using TA.
So why ignore these traders or exclude them from the TA debates?
I was scratching for answers about that myself.
I concluded that
rcanfiel and
marketsurfer are looking for a
simple method that can be coded for testing.
Nothing more and nothing less.
Yet, they know that the profitable traders using TA are using it in combo with something else to determine their entries and exits.
They also know that most profitable traders using TA are not going to reveal the details of how they are combining TA with that something else.
That's the problematic issue for guys like
rcanfiel and
marketsurfer.
Traders are willing to show their statements that TA works but they are unwilling or don't care to show the details of their TA.
Therefore, if a trader has questions about the merits of TA...
You (rcanfiel and marketsurfer) really need to be very specific about your arguments instead of making generialistic statements.
You should also not use proof of stuff that's been tested that doesn't reveal any information about the trade management of the TA signal.
My point with the above...
There's testing information with statistics available on the web for free in which is shown that there are
particular TA methods that are not reliable even though we know nothing about the trade managment that was used.
(Note: rcanfiel has often used these sources as references of proof.)
There's also
lots of traders that shows their profit/loss statements and they are profitably using TA even though we don't know the trade managment being used and in many cases don't know what type of TA is being used.
Conclusion, whom are you willing to believe?
I choose the traders with verifiable profit/loss statements especially if they are using TA methods involving s/r levels or trendlines that
rcanfiel saids has value.
I still think its very odd to see the usual type of
exclusion talk or ignore tactics...
* No price action only TA methods
* No traders with verifiable statements.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=83837
There are other traders on the internet with verifiable statements going back many years that has been using the same TA (accordingly to them) after finding something that works in combo with something else.
Analogy: Technical Analysis is like a track n field event. Just because you can't figure out how to do the long jump doesn't mean someone will not be able to figure out how to do the 100 meter dash.
Geesh...I keep forgetting...what's the debate about again???
Quote from alex.samant:
WHAT SENSE DOES THIS THREAD MAKE?
Really now... Is this really a debate?
I don;t even understand what "WORKS" means!!!!!
If the original poster, by "works" means, yields you money.... then NO. TA does not WORK.
Why should it work? YOU have to WORK, and TA is just a tool you can use to identify opportunities.
This thread is idiotic. Just like every other lame ass thread that states "MACD does not work" or "trendlines don't work" ...
No wonder 95% lose their shirt! Be well!
Well said.
Mark
(a.k.a.
NihabaAshi) Japanese Candlestick term
