Technical Analysis Doesn't Work

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Quote from rcanfiel:

See reply to Hershey post. This is a belief, not a proven reality. There is little evidence that the "professionals" use pure technical indicators or the other methods as described to any benefit whatsoever.

Stating this remains an unproven. Throwing in the snides also does nothing to provide evidence against the assertion.
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So you want someone to prove you wrong and give you a winning method?

I have not been in this game a long time, but as long as people like you are around, the basics of making money at this game will never change and there will always be opportunities for people that work hard and have open minds.

And no, you're absoluetely wrong about the comment that no professionals use pure price action. There are many pure price action following institutions and traders that have made millions. You just wont be one of them...
 
Quote from rcanfiel:

See reply to Hershey post. This is a belief, not a proven reality. There is little evidence that the "professionals" use pure technical indicators or the other methods as described to any benefit whatsoever.

Stating this remains an unproven. Throwing in the snides also does nothing to provide evidence against the assertion.
More...

That there is little debate to be had is indeed a belief. It is based on experience.

Your second sentence is YOUR belief...One that many inadequate retail traders embrace. As mentioned before you and others like you are generally inept and unskilled users of technology. That is why you are unable to do more than post your complaint here. In point of fact YOU have offered no proof of your own that technical indicators do not work..

Mr. Aronson's book does not debunk the idea of using technical analysis. It covers a limited group of tools and an equally limited use of rules. If instead of whining about this, you took the time to think critically about the subject, you might discover that certain combinations of tools DO work. Those of us who do this for a living have found them.. You apparently have not...

By the way, what you consider a snide remark is in my opinion just an "inconvenient truth" as regards amateurs who try to trade without adequate training or pre-requisite talent..As one might say "if the shoe fits"...
 
All I know is that I know i made money using t/a for years.

When you hear quants talking about relationships don't you realize that some of those relationships can be found on charts?

In fact when I was using a moving averages and bollinger bands to graph my stocks on five and one minute charts against the S&PS and the premium I was using t/a.

Hedge funds were using stats and spreadsheets to find the same trade. It worked for both of us. Who do you think I was front running?
 
Quote from panzerman:

You're thinking about TA along the proper lines. TA should not be viewed as giving discrete right and wrong entry/exit signals. Rather, TA should be viewed more in probabilistic terms. That is to say that the entry/exit signals are a method to try and put the odds more in your favor over just random 50/50 price movement.

The probabilistic nature of the markets is why a given indicator should be incorporated into a trading system that also uses a money management and position sizing component.
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actually, there is no evidence that ANY ta signal increases the odds of success of an entry/exit.

regards, surf
 
to the people on this thread who say things like " we found the combination of tools that work"---- i ask, if so, what stops you from massive wealth, and actually cornering a market? obviously, something is missing, otherwise your tools aren't really working as you think they are.

surf
 
Quote from kidPWRtrader:

.

And no, you're absoluetely wrong about the comment that no professionals use pure price action. There are many pure price action following institutions and traders that have made millions. You just wont be one of them...
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name one pure price following institution.

thanks,

surf
 
The idea of "cornering" a market is a romantic and rather dated misconception....I assume that skilled practitioners trade and make money at their convenience. I know that is precisely what I do. I don't suggest that it is not hard work, in fact it is...however it is increasingly less difficult as the days go by..

As regards the issue of proving something, I say "really I have little interest in proving anything to the crowd"...In fact, to be honest, my own system works better if you all continue to hold your present beliefs.

I do wish you all the best that random chance has to offer.

Steve
 
There is only one question to ask:
Do TA consistently, objectively (non-emotionaly) produce winning trades results better than 50%?

If TA can be proven to work on its own better than 50% of the time, lets say, 51% of the time, there would have been teams of programmers producing TA program for trading, which would be like a money machine.

If TA cannot be proven to work better than 50% of the time. TA is NOT better than flipping a coin.

There is no money mchine out there, yet. Or is that a secret?

If TA ever worked, it is more than TA that went into the trade.
 
I believe Mark Minervini traded almost exclusively based on price action.

Richard Deniss was 100% price action. And yes, he was a lone trader for the most part, but opened an institution for a while that did fairly well.

I am not an institution aficionado, so I really can't tell you more, but I know there are many many many trend following institutions out there.

By the way, there are 1000's of hedge funds. Do you really think not one of them uses pure price action?

Not implying anything about the skill level or risk management of hedge funds...

Anyways, I am sort of killing the topic here.
 
Quote from atozcom:

There is only one question to ask:
Do TA consistently, objectively (non-emotionaly) produce winning trades results better than 50%?

If TA can be proven to work on its own better than 50% of the time, lets say, 51% of the time, there would have been teams of programmers producing TA program for trading, which would be like a money machine.

If TA cannot be proven to work better than 50% of the time. TA is NOT better than flipping a coin.

There is no money mchine out there, yet. Or is that a secret?

If TA ever worked, it is more than TA that went into the trade.
More...

Just to let you know (im sure you already know this), you don't need 50% to make profits.
 
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