Technical Analysis Doesn't Work

Maverick1 · Aug 30, 2007

Quote from rcanfiel:

Golf and Tennis have not been constantly tested as having no market outperformance. TA has.

I think the term is, "comparing apples to oranges."

Bull.

Golfers have pro ranks, so do tennis players. Their performance is constantly scrutinized and Tiger Woods and Roger Federer are ranked #1. So they are the top dogs and outperform everyone else and have for many years. So again I ask you and market surfer, would you have the cohones to walk up to them and tell as well as Marty Schwartz, that they are all randomly lucky statistical outliers?

TA on the other hand has been tested in very narrow and simplistic studies, almost laughably so. Please don't refer to those mickey mouse Fama or Fed studies or buy when 10ma cross 30ma type studies. The usefulness of statistical tests correlates highly to the complexity of the hypothesis being tested. So your claim that the jury is out for now and forever on TA is preposterous.

ProfLogic · Aug 30, 2007

Quote from marketsurfer:

Proflogic clearly has no clue what you are talking about. odds are 98% that he will not play in an arena that will actually verify his system.

regards,

surf

I took you and ratcanfiel off ignore for a few days while I move into my new home so I didn't miss any of your comedic posts.

You . . . clearly have no clue . . . period.

I absolutely understand what ratcanfiel is talking about.

You couldn't understand how I trade if you sat with me for a year and watched me execute every trade entry and exit.

I'm going to respond to a few posts and then spend the rest of the wonderful Labor Day weekend moving and spending time with friends and family.

ProfLogic · Aug 30, 2007

rcanfiel

Registered: Sep 2006
Posts: 799

08-28-07 05:14 PM

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hardly. Your constant refusal to get under the lights to show your ability or not says much.

That was ME who issued this, not ProfLogic. Try cleaning your glasses and reread the posts. Proflogic was challenged several times in years past to show that he works, and he backed out

I think you have a much longer history of avoiding showing you have anything. Personally, I have seen little worth "Stealing." I have no interest in anyone's wares. I am unconcerned about taking part in a challenge. As I see from your response, you have run and hidden.

I expect ProfLogic to back out within the next week or two with some unexpected excuse, as you did in the past when you were apparently down some 26%. Every request since then, you avoid answering.

Or ProfLogic may go along as he makes some money, but will then deflate on some implosion and THEN issue his reason for having to withdraw.

Or he will just avoid responding for awhile after he deflates...

My knives are sharpened.

___________________________________________________

Yo ratcanfiel,

I challenged you once before and you ran and hid. You didn't have the money to back up the hot air then and you still don't so you tell me what you are willing to put up. It's not worth it to me to publicly embarrass you for free.

Do not even begin to say I have backed down from a single challenge weasel. Everyone I have ever challenged has run like a scared dog with their tail between their legs, including your alter ego smurf.

You'd better spend the weekend looking for a loan because if you exect to go heads up with me you are damn well going to need every penny you can scrape together.

ProfLogic · Aug 30, 2007

Quote from rcanfiel:

Page 119 at the bottom Jack. Try using some Windex on your contact lenses. Prof agreed, I challenged.

I intend to shellac ProfLogic and let everyone know how little there is behind the smoke and mirrors. Read the past threads from a couple of years back and see how little there is to his claims.

I repeat . . .

What can you AFFORD to loose?

ProfLogic · Aug 30, 2007

Quote from rcanfiel:

Well, I proposed a trading challenge to ProfLogic (Yes Jack, if you cleaned your glasses, it was me, not the "Prof")

ProfLogic accepted.

I proposed terms.

ProfLogic has disappeared, apparently.

Past comments about his previous claims:

bali_survivor: he was supposed to be starting a trading contest right here on ET but that has been cancelled

vhehn: good luck on that one. the prof is a little hard to pin down. i suspect he likes it that way.

downtickboy: Yea check the other ET thread as linked to above where he claimed he was going to trade for 20 days and post his results after having a drawn out disagreement with marketsurfer on the idea of trends. Prof was the one pushing for this trading contest/exercise and calling marketsurfer out only to back out of it himself after he was the one who set the time fram and start date.

benyls: I dont think professor logic will deliver what he has promised. There is tons of excuses and debate going on over there. Well it is always not easy to post statement, but what is ironical is nobody force him and he himself set the date and he himself mention he will post the statement. I was thinking of joining his class with 2 of my friend but now I will think thrice.

So I guess opinions of your insanity are perfectly accurate as well? You can sure tell you are still wet behind the ears.

ProfLogic · Aug 30, 2007

Quote from rcanfiel:

Thanks. You saved me 10-15 minutes talking to a potted plant. This is just a rehash of what came earlier in this thread. "What about this guru? or that one? Doesn't that cinch it? Huh? Huh?"

You really need to stop talking to yourself.

ProfLogic · Aug 30, 2007

Quote from rcanfiel:

Golf and Tennis have not been constantly tested as having no market outperformance. TA has.

I think the term is, "comparing apples to oranges."

Everything regarding TA has already been discovered nothing new will ever be found as useful.

The exact sentiment was expressed in the New England Journal of Medicine in 1895 . . . probably by ratcanfiel's grandfather.

Living in a box, living in a cardboard box . . .

ProfLogic · Aug 30, 2007

Well, that was good as a vent for some mental frustration.

I'll post the next part slowly so ratcanfiel and smurf can understand it.

Today is Thursday 08/30/07.

From now until next Wednesday I will be moving, getting my new home organized, attending a Blues Festival, spending time with family over the Holiday and having an overall wonderful time.

All of you have a safe and happy Labor Day Weekend, even ratcanfield and his sidekick smurfman.

When I return I expect to see a post from ratcanfield with a whole lot of $$$ in it as his "PUT UP or SHUT UP" money. (All donated to the children's charity of my choice of course)

ljyoung · Aug 30, 2007

I gave a list of potential things that could explain outperformance besides TA. It seems unnecessary to perform metrics, restate, complicate, debate or otherwise contemplate the semantics.

This is not complicated but rather states the obvious. Let me put it more simply. What's sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander.

I still do not see the point of any of this. I think you need to reread the post, as I said. I am not trying to be unkind, but this looks like a tangent.

When one attempts to defend a position, as it would seem you are doing, it is illogical to arbitrarily apply a set of standards to only one side of the question. The application of contingencies must be applied to all methods - fundamental analysis, Gann angles, astrological visions, pigeon entrails, etc. So if the TA practitioner is juicing his results with these other things (Money management, portfolio management, interest, trade management, luck in leveraging a rising market, fees from running hedge funds/speaking fees/running an advisory, outright lying about the profitability) what's to stop an FA practitioner, Gann disciple, astrological wizard or all-knowing oracle from doing exactly the same thing.

I am presuming of course that you are comparing TA to something else. It can't be a coin toss because markets are not random. So whatever it is that is better than TA, then that too can be juiced. On the other hand it may be that you are saying that TA doesn't work and neither does anything else, in which case the application of contingencies still applies. N'est ce pas?

lj

jack hershey · Aug 30, 2007

Quote from ProfLogic:

Well, that was good as a vent for some mental frustration.

I'll post the next part slowly so ratcanfiel and smurf can understand it.

Today is Thursday 08/30/07.

From now until next Wednesday I will be moving, getting my new home organized, attending a Blues Festival, spending time with family over the Holiday and having an overall wonderful time.

All of you have a safe and happy Labor Day Weekend, even ratcanfield and his sidekick smurfman.

When I return I expect to see a post from ratcanfield with a whole lot of $$$ in it as his "PUT UP or SHUT UP" money. (All donated to the children's charity of my choice of course)

I agree Prof.

ranfiel is just Phishing for info for his future BS vendor stuff...

There was nothing offered of value and there was no money put on the table....

I think of the little old lady asking: "Where's the beef?....

ranfiel has zero beef on the table and never will.

Congrats on your new place and have a great weekend....

There is one long list of great TA traders out there.... renfile should start a file entitled "traders he has never heard of".. I should start it off for him with 10 or 20......

Wouldn't you think that surf would have met someone by now???

Geoff at GS? lol surfer.