Technical Analysis Doesn't Work

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Quote from oddiduro:

Where traders go wrong in my experience is trying to use a binary TA system in the wrong environment. If you use a mech system on the wrong time frame, or in the wrong range, then there will be problems of course.

One of Jack's students designed a java platform that ranks his stocks, and literally reduces the work to a mechanical level. I know this works because I have used it.

Your TA method may no longer use the Gann wheel, but it is deriving these ranges that you put up based on some sort of adaptive algorhythm that tells you where to draw these channels.

By the very nature of the system, you must use price movement in your calculations, therefore, you are using TA.

The market is always either accelerating, holding constant, or decelerating. A binary system can easily capture ONE of these three conditions based a set of mechanical rules. Because of this, it becomes simply a matter of identifying which system should be employed. This too can reduced to true/false statements.

I said all that to ask the question of why would one be trying to debunk TA based the inability of a binary trading system to see multiple market conditions? By it's very nature, as far as I am aware, a binary system can only identify one condition at a time. So when the condition changes a different binary sequence has to be used.

This seems to be common sense to me.

Best Regards
Oddi
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thank you, oddi. well stated--- made me think. very nice!

best,

surf
 
"This is an uncomplex, binary method that deals with a single indicator near the end of each day."

Jack, that is one of the few things you have said recently that made sense. I totally agree. But I'll bet your indicator isn't the same as mine. Mine works about 80+% of the time.
 
Quote from cdcolvin:

You must be a democrat. Presents a problem with no suggestion for a solution.
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Or a news reporter.

Suggested solution was implied in the posts. "Stop using things that don't work."

But the religious fervor of the believers is impressive. Basically a major opposition argument is "if someone has something that works, why would they tell you?" Now there is a convincing counter. Similar to the value of "Testimonials" on advisory websites like WizeTrade. Similar to avoiding telling kids there is no Santa Claus, because it shatters their closely treasured fantasies...
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

subjective interpretive TA i can't argue with. objective binary TA is what i have never seen work or believe it does.

surf
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I don't know what do you mean binary. Objective in my view is using math only not an opinion. You can explore my journal and see an example of objective trading method. However the core of the method is math model not classical TA indicators. But my model works with past price data, so it is TA :)
 
Quote from jack hershey:

You can go back a ways and see where surf started using various words in his vocabulary.

Also anyone can make up a dichotomous key to get to any answer he wishes regarding market action. This is not something that may occur to some kinds of people when they think.

The increasing use of digitalizing is becoming broader based and very deep in detail at this point.

It is possible that surf is falling on his face by tripping over what binary means in market analysis. He may think that it is one of two alternatives only.

To keep it simple, give consideration to trading opening gaps.

The best routine would be to buy near the prior day's market close. You can do this with a single indicator that only gives one of two signals. We do it with slush money, ordinarily, where the goal is to make over 10% a day each day. It is not something that would draw the interest of most traders.

By using a go/nogo signal in the late afternoon, you simply take on a trade with money that is ordinarily swept into an interest bearing account.

This is an uncomplex, binary method that deals with a single indicator near the end of each day. To make 10% or more doing this during one day, is not difficult because there are few members of the universe on any given day. Favorites do occur simply because they show up time and again and are very reliable.

I would recommend this to students who are liberal arts majors and do not have good paying summer jobs. By using the 60 days of a summer vacation and running a few streams of capital at 10% a day, a person can build up funds for tuition, room and board and a car and its maintenance and driving costs. This is not something anMBA or quant student can do; it is too simple for them to grasp.


you use one indicator that gives a binary signal and you apply it to a narrow universe of stocks. They will gap up the next morning after they signal to the trader to enter in the late afternoon.

This is the essence of a binary TA indicator that surf has never seen or will never see until he and his colleagues do it.

A person who does this works in one of the 300 blocks of Madison Ave in a city named New York. Madison runs north and south as does 5th Ave.

A way for surf to get this straight would be to have him take phone calls (local, maybe) and do the Nike thing with some money. Or he could read a journal that contains the info.

What makes understanding how binary TA works is the transference of the information from one person to another. Surf commonly gives up this or that as the years go by. In this matter there is a requirement that surf get something. That is a challenge, I know from a colleagues experiences with him.

Would reviewing a list of 1000 charts that did this help?
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Shut up and call a live trade you old fraud.. you've never made a cent
 
I've tried to state for years in this forum my rationale for sharing and why I share so openly with some and not others. I've had numerous individuals over the years request information regarding what I do so they could test it for themselves to see whether or not it would be useful to use for their own personal trading and for the most part I share openly.

Then there is the other extreme where some first communicate by chiding, berating, nagging, or harassing then ask to be informed. This so much reminds me of high school bullying it isn't funny. First they chide their mark then ask for help with their homework. The big difference is that the internet doesn't empower the bully. We "with" the information can look at those individuals wishing to force us into "giving up that information" and say, "Take a Hike"!

I was the typical "nerd", "geek" & egghead in high school and college so I understand the "pressure" mentality. Over the years I have learned to stand up for myself academically, mentally, verbally and physically and "it" itself was empowering. I no longer feel the need to share openly with those that not only can't do it for themselves but WON'T do it for themselves even if they could. They have always relied on others to "think" for them and to do the "brainwork" so they can simply slide by on the "sweat equity" of others.

Now you know why I refuse the requests of some to openly lay out my research. I know there is a group who will chime in with their typical yada yada yada and we all know who they are. Then again I might have stepped on a sensitive toe or two and they might retreat from this explanation.

Whether or not you agree or not that TA has value the important thing is to keep an open mind and never stop learning.

When one thinks they know everything they have failed. When one is always puzzled they will always be open to new ideas and discovery.
 
Quote from ProfLogic:

I've tried to state for years in this forum my rationale for sharing and why I share so openly with some and not others. I've had numerous individuals over the years request information regarding what I do so they could test it for themselves to see whether or not it would be useful to use for their own personal trading and for the most part I share openly.

Then there is the other extreme where some first communicate by chiding, berating, nagging, or harassing then ask to be informed. This so much reminds me of high school bullying it isn't funny. First they chide their mark then ask for help with their homework. The big difference is that the internet doesn't empower the bully. We "with" the information can look at those individuals wishing to force us into "giving up that information" and say, "Take a Hike"!

I was the typical "nerd", "geek" & egghead in high school and college so I understand the "pressure" mentality. Over the years I have learned to stand up for myself academically, mentally, verbally and physically and "it" itself was empowering. I no longer feel the need to share openly with those that not only can't do it for themselves but WON'T do it for themselves even if they could. They have always relied on others to "think" for them and to do the "brainwork" so they can simply slide by on the "sweat equity" of others.

Now you know why I refuse the requests of some to openly lay out my research. I know there is a group who will chime in with their typical yada yada yada and we all know who they are. Then again I might have stepped on a sensitive toe or two and they might retreat from this explanation.

Whether or not you agree or not that TA has value the important thing is to keep an open mind and never stop learning.

When one thinks they know everything they have failed. When one is always puzzled they will always be open to new ideas and discovery.
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You still sound insecure
 
Quote from ProfLogic:

I've tried to state for years in this forum my rationale for sharing and why I share so openly with some and not others. I've had numerous individuals over the years request information regarding what I do so they could test it for themselves to see whether or not it would be useful to use for their own personal trading and for the most part I share openly.

Now you know why I refuse the requests of some to openly lay out my research. I know there is a group who will chime in with their typical yada yada yada and we all know who they are. Then again I might have stepped on a sensitive toe or two and they might retreat from this explanation.

Whether or not you agree or not that TA has value the important thing is to keep an open mind and never stop learning.

When one thinks they know everything they have failed. When one is always puzzled they will always be open to new ideas and discovery.
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well, it seems to me that you are admitting your system is subjective in some aspects. there is nothing wrong with this, and if you would simply admit it, you would gain some respect in the business

surf--
 
Quote from ProfLogic:

I've tried to state for years in this forum my rationale for sharing and why I share so openly with some and not others. I've had numerous individuals over the years request information regarding what I do so they could test it for themselves to see whether or not it would be useful to use for their own personal trading and for the most part I share openly...
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Interesting, ProfLogic. I received an unsolicited PM (I will not say who - it is up for them to decide about posting on ET). They had a lot of nasty thing to say about your seminars and you:

I want to let you know that this character, Proflogic, is a scumbag and a scammer. I was scammed into spending $4000 to attend one of his seminars in 2006. It was a decision I'd regret ever since as was a total waste of money. Be aware that this guy is a charlatan. He gave himself the title of "professor" and adopt a obnoxous and insulting manner to other peoples so as to belittle them in a way as to "how dare you question the learned professor, you idiot".

It continues on much further, but it was an eye opener. And it confirms what I have kind of been thinking about your postings...
 
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