Technical Analysis Doesn't Work

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Quote from marketsurfer:

well, these types of methods don't require the same type proof as TA--- their very nature is the proof--- the nature of TA has no proof inately within it--other than the past, which is useless in trading. arb, for instance, one has sold prior to buying thus locking in profits--- this is one example where there is no need to prove this method--since its nature is proof. informational arb is another that requires no proof and is not testable, rebate trading where one gets paid to trade is another---- i could go on and on. these are different and prove themselves inately unlike observing the past and predicting by making trades via TA where certain patterns are suppose to have predictive qualities, etal. we are talking about totally different things.

surf
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You are employing circular logic and you are backtracking. Not very academic or scientific, surf. (Just curious: Do all arbs necessarily always make money, or are you going anecdotal on me again? And are you implying that this is the only form of profitable trading, since you have offered no other forms of trading in your example? You say you can go "on and on," but you don't. Please do.)

Since you are trading, I can only presume that you are employing methods that you believe in. Please show us the validity of your methods supported by the scientifically valid statistical type of evidence that you expressly require. And while you're at it, wake rcanfiel up, will you?
 
Quote from Thunderdog:

You are employing circular logic and you are backtracking. Not very academic or scientific, surf. (Just curious: Do all arbs necessarily always make money, or are you going anecdotal on me again? And are you implying that this is the only form of profitable trading, since you have offered no other forms of trading in your example? You say you can go "on and on," but you don't. Please do.)

Since you are trading, I can only presume that you are employing methods that you believe in. Please show us the validity of your methods supported with scientifically valid statistical evidence. And while you're at it, wake rcanfiel up, will you?
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no, its not circular. however, your line of reasoning is designed to misdirect from the topic of TA. i don't talk about my present methods other than vaguely as to what levels will be entered, etc, among other thoughts, one can follow but not replicate. however, i assure you, the methods have evolved and are not at all similar to the time they were first exposed on the internet.

surf
 
Quote from Thunderdog:

Yeah, me too. See how that works?
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This is how it works:

http://p075.ezboard.com/fenergytradersfrm29.showMessage?topicID=3.topic


He is investing his and others money in different funds. If he is as good as he wants us to believe, why doesn't he trade the money himself?
I trade my own money, because i cannot get a better return elsewhere. I don't need other traders to trade my money.
Is this perhaps because i'm a fan of TA and behavioral finance?
And believe me, my bank account is not an illusion.
 
Quote from Thunderdog:

Yeah, me too. See how that works?
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yeah, i see your point. however, TA falls into a different category--- everyone seems to have a differing take on it, however it all boils down to the same old same old as there are limited varibles to work with and limited ways to display the varibles. if you claim to be able to outthink teams of quants and out design the world's best---- like some here do----then i can't argue, however i can choose not to believe you.

surf
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

are you encouraging me to post the "perfect track record"??
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No. Just post your own. You claim to have a "record" on ET and Clearstation, presumably showing a profitable trading career. A record is not a collection of calls, most of them losers, combined with claims about some killer trades ("Death Spiral") in between.
I would already be happy if you just showed your Papertrading trail, assuming it were profitable...

Because, let's face it: if you yourself can not trade profitably, then any criticism of other methods by you is... well... irrelevant? The only guys worth listening to in this field are profitable traders.
 
Quote from Vienna:

No. Just post your own. You claim to have a "record" on ET and Clearstation, presumably showing a profitable trading career. A record is not a collection of calls, most of them losers, combined with claims about some killer trades ("Death Spiral") in between.
I would already be happy if you just showed your Papertrading trail, assuming it were profitable...

Because, let's face it: if you yourself can not trade profitably, then any criticism of other methods by you is... well... irrelevant? The only guys worth listening to in this field are profitable traders.
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i make no claims about my personal trading-- those who do, should be able to back it up--particullarly the outrageous claims made by some on this board. however, i do post my entries prior to the fact and have since 2002. i don't care if you will not listen to common sense and reams of data indicating the failure of TA. my success or failure trading my own account is irrelevant.

regards,
surf
 
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