"Technical Analysis Doesn't Work... TA Sucks", you say?

Scataphagos

Scataphagos

I say, Price TA works for ALL MARKETS... and for ALL TIME FRAMES! Take Natural Gas for instance currently at this time...
natgas.PNG


What USUALLY happens after the price of NatGas dips to $2-ish?

That's Price TA.

KISS, baby. :)
 
Last edited:
Scataphagos said:
I say, Price TA works for ALL MARKETS... and for ALL TIME FRAMES! Take Natural Gas for instance currently at this time...
View attachment 311381

What USUALLY happens after the price of NatGas dips to $2-ish?

That's Price TA.

KISS, baby. :)
More...

So is it time to take a LONG position?


Or when is the time to take a LONG position?


Or is it the time to sit on our hands?
 
Last edited:
maxinger said:
So is it time to take a LONG position?


Or when is the time to take a LONG position?


Or is it the time to sit on our hands?
More...

Depends upon how close to THE bottom you expect to "nail" it. If you want to be sure to catch the subsequent bounce, you start accumulating UNG or natgas stocks with the intent of holding until you get the bounce. Would be riskier to try the play with the leveraged ETFs right now, however... until it looks like natgas is taking off to the upside... then maybe add BOIL.
 
Reasons to not "go whole hog" into NG at this time...

1. Estimates for 2023 NG peak reserves are the 2nd largest on record (that's bearish)... and is likely contributing to current low price.

2. Turkey just recently discovered a MONSTER NG deposit... also bearish.

Though these two are bearish and they may dampen any subsequent rally, NG is still extremely seasonal due to weather and home heating use. The next seasonal rally may not go to $10, but is likely to go to at least $4-$6.... my guess.
 
What if we remove TA all together and ask ourselves a simple question?

Gas will never be free (0), so is it 2 the point where everyone thinks that is really cheap so it is a strong support for the whole market?

I think it is, from what you are posting.

Now, what are your TA lines doing?
 
Scataphagos said:
Depends upon how close to THE bottom you expect to "nail" it. If you want to be sure to catch the subsequent bounce, you start accumulating UNG or natgas stocks with the intent of holding until you get the bounce. Would be riskier to try the play with the leveraged ETFs right now, however... until it looks like natgas is taking off to the upside... then maybe add BOIL.
More...

nah!

I wouldn't be touching NG for the next half a year.

Over the past few months,
NG day range (volatility) has decayed very badly.
 
Drawdown Addict said:
Gas will never be free (0), so is it 2 the point where everyone thinks that is really cheap so it is a strong support for the whole market?
More...

You've answered your own question. People's "buying near $2" indicates they believe the price is cheap and likely to rise. Their buying behavior is being shown in the price chart... just like always.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top