"Technical Analysis Doesn't Work... TA Sucks", you say?

It "works" because you are not defining precisely what doesn't work". That line is repeatedly violated at the start of the chart and then massively violated in the middle. If this "works" what exactly doesn't work? This is just muddled thinking. You can move that line all over the chart and find places it lines up too if you don't care about repeated violations that the line is completely meaningless.

The market is constantly discounting information as time marches on and constantly changing. The whole idea of a straight line on a time chart only makes sense if the market is not discounting new information and not constantly changing.

Scataphagos said:
I say, Price TA works for ALL MARKETS... and for ALL TIME FRAMES! Take Natural Gas for instance currently at this time...
View attachment 311381

What USUALLY happens after the price of NatGas dips to $2-ish?

That's Price TA.

KISS, baby. :)
More...
 
lariati said:
It "works" because you are not defining precisely what doesn't work". That line is repeatedly violated at the start of the chart and then massively violated in the middle. If this "works" what exactly doesn't work? This is just muddled thinking. You can move that line all over the chart and find places it lines up too if you don't care about repeated violations that the line is completely meaningless.
More...

You understand not.... and I'm not going to educate.
 
Traders are buying the obvious chart support @ $2-ish... however

I looked up natgas data going back 25 years.

1. In 2020, natty reached a low of $1.40-ish and spent 9 months in the $1.40-$2.00 range before seasonal rally.
2. 2020 had the "highest NG reserves going into the heating season"... bearish
3. 2023 is currently "estimated it will have the 2nd highest reserves going into heating season"... second only to the 2020 levels... also bearish if that turns out to be the case.

If the $2 area holds, it means something. If it breaks and holds below $2, that also means something.

Might want to keep that in mind for your strategy.

FWIW...
 
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SimpleMeLike said:
Hello easymon1,
Why do you keep talking about a tested method?
Where did you get that "method" and "tested" from?
How do you know that method is nothing but a big bold lie?
More...
Hi SML,
I have zero expectation that you are the type to act on what is posted here
but for anyone out there ready to look at rules based trading, here we go...
1-What triggers a buy or a sell to open?
2-What triggers an exit?

SimpleMeLike said: Why do you keep talking about a tested method?
Because it works better than seat of the pants trading.

SimpleMeLike said: Where did you get that "method"?
The methods come from interesting setups and triggers in books and online.

SimpleMeLike said: Where did you get "tested" from?
Tested comes from a simple validation process, and the stats that it produces
and the motto - "Believe none of what you hear and but half that you see." Prove it.
Tested means supported by stats. The stats come from time, effort and that simple validation process.

SimpleMeLike said: How do you know that method is nothing but a big bold lie?
The results of the above process are designed to eliminate non-performing setups.
-
Here's an example. Linked below is a simple classic setup with the rules laid out.
For a anyone inclined to be a rules based trader the next step is to

Find a dozen cases of this setup/trigger.
Note: How many worked? How many did not work?

If not enough worked to make this setup interesting, that's good to know early. Dump it.

If enough did work, then go find a dozen more.
Still interested? Go find 76 more.
Still interested? Sim trade a dozen and follow the rules.
Still interested? Put that mofo in your trading toolbox and keep an eye out for the next setup to test.
Rinse, repeat.
Only 3 out of 100 traders are inclined to go through this process. They start and stay artistic intuitive strivers.
For those inclined to look into rules based trading, Break a Leg!

Double Top and Bottom
https://elitetrader.com/et/threads/...t-right-here-baby.335635/page-18#post-5309309
 
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taowave said:
How the heck are you planning on going from unprofitable to making 1 mil with no down days in this year??

How long have you been at this,and what size is your account?? You realize your expectations are oversized...

Im not saying PA isnt the answer,but why such supreme confidence in a method that hasnt been profitable??
More...
sunk cost fallacy, dunning kruger effect, etc etc.

In the land of the blind, the person pretending to have eyes is king.
 
easymon1 said:
Hi SML,
I have zero expectation that you are the type to act on what is posted here
but for anyone out there ready to look at rules based trading, here we go...
1-What triggers a buy or a sell to open?
2-What triggers an exit?

SimpleMeLike said: Why do you keep talking about a tested method?
Because it works better than seat of the pants trading.

SimpleMeLike said: Where did you get that "method"?
The methods come from interesting setups and triggers in books and online.

SimpleMeLike said: Where did you get "tested" from?
Tested comes from a simple validation process, and the stats that it produces
and the motto - "Believe none of what you hear and but half that you see." Prove it.
Tested means supported by stats. The stats come from time, effort and that simple validation process.

SimpleMeLike said: How do you know that method is nothing but a big bold lie?
The results of the above process are designed to eliminate non-performing setups.
-
Here's an example. Linked below is a simple classic setup with the rules laid out.
For a anyone inclined to be a rules based trader the next step is to

Find a dozen cases of this setup/trigger.
Note: How many worked? How many did not work?

If not enough worked to make this setup interesting, that's good to know early. Dump it.

If enough did work, then go find a dozen more.
Still interested? Go find 76 more.
Still interested? Sim trade a dozen and follow the rules.
Still interested? Put that mofo in your trading toolbox and keep an eye out for the next setup to test.
Rinse, repeat.
Only 3 out of 100 traders are inclined to go through this process. They start and stay artistic intuitive strivers.
For those inclined to look into rules based trading, Break a Leg!

Double Top and Bottom
https://elitetrader.com/et/threads/...t-right-here-baby.335635/page-18#post-5309309
More...

You're thinking straight and "getting it", Grasshopper. :)
 
easymon1 said:
Hi SML,
I have zero expectation that you are the type to act on what is posted here
but for anyone out there ready to look at rules based trading, here we go...
1-What triggers a buy or a sell to open?
2-What triggers an exit?

SimpleMeLike said: Why do you keep talking about a tested method?
Because it works better than seat of the pants trading.

SimpleMeLike said: Where did you get that "method"?
The methods come from interesting setups and triggers in books and online.

SimpleMeLike said: Where did you get "tested" from?
Tested comes from a simple validation process, and the stats that it produces
and the motto - "Believe none of what you hear and but half that you see." Prove it.
Tested means supported by stats. The stats come from time, effort and that simple validation process.

SimpleMeLike said: How do you know that method is nothing but a big bold lie?
The results of the above process are designed to eliminate non-performing setups.
-
Here's an example. Linked below is a simple classic setup with the rules laid out.
For a anyone inclined to be a rules based trader the next step is to

Find a dozen cases of this setup/trigger.
Note: How many worked? How many did not work?

If not enough worked to make this setup interesting, that's good to know early. Dump it.

If enough did work, then go find a dozen more.
Still interested? Go find 76 more.
Still interested? Sim trade a dozen and follow the rules.
Still interested? Put that mofo in your trading toolbox and keep an eye out for the next setup to test.
Rinse, repeat.
Only 3 out of 100 traders are inclined to go through this process. They start and stay artistic intuitive strivers.
For those inclined to look into rules based trading, Break a Leg!

Double Top and Bottom
https://elitetrader.com/et/threads/...t-right-here-baby.335635/page-18#post-5309309
More...
Hello easymon1,

Please follow Scataphagos on this topic. Do not waste your time with me. I am playing around you burning time.

Please do not listen to me or pay me any attention. I am NON-PROFITABLE TRADER. Please do not listen to me. Just ignore me if that helps you.
 
SimpleMeLike said:
Hello easymon1,

Please follow Scataphagos on this topic. Do not waste your time with me. I am playing around you burning time.

Please do not listen to me or pay me any attention. I am NON-PROFITABLE TRADER. Please do not listen to me. Just ignore me if that helps you.
More...
I like input from all over the place. I follow my stats.
Ignore SML? No way. I dig reading your posts and lots of others do too.
 
SimpleMeLike said:
Hello easymon1,

Please follow Scataphagos on this topic. Do not waste your time with me. I am playing around you burning time.

Please do not listen to me or pay me any attention. I am NON-PROFITABLE TRADER. Please do not listen to me. Just ignore me if that helps you.
More...

What's your problem? Just do what easymon1 said... it's the "key to the city"! :)
 
Scataphagos said:
What's your problem? Just do what easymon1 said... it's the "key to the city"! :)
More...
Hello Scataphagos,

I just do whatever Price TA tell for the time I have to watch Price TA and take money from the ES chart sir.

I do not want to be fancy or technical, just profitable.

I just personally do not believe in setups and methods anymore. Just my opinion. I just trade.
 
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