technical analysis dax signal

galvinlee888 said:
You are over complicated yourself and waste your energy in the wrong place.

The more legs you are opening, the more negative expectancy you will put yourself in due to slippage and commission. You only become the best customer to your broker or owner of the bucket shop in this regards.

If you are bullish in the so called "resistance line", just long OTM call, otherwise just long the OTM put. If you believe the price will stay in the resistance line for a while and will reverse down to support eventually, just open a plain calendar put position, hold your long put after the short position expired and collect the money in your long put. Open calendar Call Position if you believe the price will stay in resistance for a while but breakout to upside will happen eventually.

The billion dollar edge will be : How can you tell if the price will whipsaw for while, OR breakout OR reverse in the resistance line ?
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Now that he has explained himself, I actually do understand what he is trying to do. For the long, he is trying to protect his downside by buying the put, but he wants to pay for it and maybe make some money from theta by selling the call. Sounds nice in theory.

What I'm not at all sure he understands is that the markets reward taking risk, the more the hedge, the less the rewards.

When I first started trading options, I thought verticals were a wonderful idea. Certainly in futures magazine there were many articles on how to structure verticals and how wonderful they were. One time I bought a put vertical with a $3 spread in TLT. Since the front month expiry was like two weeks away, I bought the second month.

Two things happened. Firstly it went down like $5-$6, and secondly it took only 3 weeks to do that. So not only did I get half the value of the move, because of time premium, I had to wait another 3 weeks to realise the full value of the spread.

The best lesson I had that the market has a price for everything. I never traded verticals after that. Either I had directional conviction or I didn't. To use my favourite expression, you can't be a little bit pregnant; you either are or you aren't.
 
galvinlee888 said:
You are over complicated yourself and waste your energy in the wrong place.

The more legs you are opening, the more negative expectancy you will put yourself in due to slippage and commission. You only become the best customer to your broker or owner of the bucket shop in this regards.

If you are bullish in the so called "resistance line", just long OTM call, otherwise just long the OTM put. If you believe the price will stay in the resistance line for a while and will reverse down to support eventually, just open a plain calendar put position, hold your long put after the short position expired and collect the money in your long put.

Open calendar Call Position if you believe the price will stay in resistance for a while but breakout to upside will happen eventually.That is a great suggestion .

The billion dollar edge will be : How can you tell if the price will whipsaw for while, OR breakout OR reverse in the resistance line ?
More...


That is a great suggestion .Thank you guys .I am indebted to you.

You are right .I will post trades as I do them.You are a gentleman and a scholar.

scholar.jpg



Open calendar Call Position if you believe the price will stay in resistance for a while but breakout to upside will happen eventually.That is a great suggestion .I think there is an edge in this because prices on indexes don't break down too far from resistance , usuall support kicks in after a short period of time , after a fall.



https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/edge-of-buying-the-stock-market-dip.304496/
 
Trading Education Buyer said:
· DAX opens at 07:15 and FTSE opens at 08:00 GMT. Do no not trade for first 30 minutes until FTSE opens and market settles.

· S&P opens at 14:30 GMT. Do no not trade for the first 30 minutes, until markets settle.

2.1 Trading DAX and FTSE - Compulsory filter

· They have to trend/move in the same direction in order to place an order. Look also at DOW and S&P; they have to move as well in the same direction. This does not mean set ups have to be valid on the other instruments; it means they just have to move in same direction. (S&P/Dow is more important than FTSE)

· If FTSE and DAX are not moving together, then either FTSE or DAX orders are valid, only if S&P and DOW are moving together.

· DAX opens at 07:15 and FTSE opens at 08:00 GMT. Do no not trade for first 30 minutes until FTSE opens and markets settle.

· S&P opens at 14:30 GMT, so do not place new orders between approximately 12:30 and 15:00, until direction is clear.

· If there is no news, do not open new trades on indices 1 hour before USA opens.

· Trending definition: prices must be above lwma 18 for longs or below mas for shorts on 30 MIN (with slope, channel and trend line).

· Rules 3.1, 3.15 and 4.1 will invalidate the compulsory filter (rule 3.12).It applies if DAX, FTSE, S&P and DOW are trending in the same direction.

· Do not open new DAX position after 110 pips made in one day.

· Do not open new FTSE position after 75 pips made in one day.

· Always use s and p supports , resistances , trend lines and channels to trade ftse /dax /djia

· The system set ups must valid on the instrument as high probability example :wtf:n ftse it has to be valid on ftse (not s and p , dax , dow , nasdaq
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What you have written here is a reasonable approach. I trade the dax.


"DAX opens at 07:15 and FTSE opens at 08:00 GMT. Do no not trade for first 30 minutes until FTSE opens and markets settle" Should wait 1hr for cash to open.

Pips is a forex term, if trading Indices you use ticks.


Important internals i use is.

If you are planning to trade Dax you should be aware of the Asian Market, namely the Hang Seng, and Nikkei as these are the markets that the dax will get its sentiment from first. You also need to be very aware of when the dax cash markets opens. What's the point looking at a forward market when the preceding markets are in control.
 
4pipsSake said:
What you have written here is a reasonable approach. I trade the dax.


"DAX opens at 07:15 and FTSE opens at 08:00 GMT. Do no not trade for first 30 minutes until FTSE opens and markets settle" Should wait 1hr for cash to open.

Pips is a forex term, if trading Indices you use ticks.


Important internals i use is.

If you are planning to trade Dax you should be aware of the Asian Market, namely the Hang Seng, and Nikkei as these are the markets that the dax will get its sentiment from first. You also need to be very aware of when the dax cash markets opens. What's the point looking at a forward market when the preceding markets are in control.
More...

In the first post is the full system.You can call signals here and I call my signals on Dax , a lot of times in advance.I also call option trades here.

technical analysis dax signal

I prefer a nice up channel on 400 /800 tick charts before entry.TICK CHARTS TO ALIGNED TO HOURLY CHARTS

I am looking for all indices to be aligned , because Dax is highly volatile .

monkey2.jpg
 
German stocks, in a bear market less than two months ago, are back in favor.

Investors have piled into the biggest exchange-traded fund tracking the country’s equities in the past two weeks, pushing its market capitalization back up to values last seen in April. Germany’s benchmark DAX Index has regained two-thirds of its losses, and bulls are speculating on further gains via the options market, sending the cost of bullish contracts to the highest levels since at least 2010 relative to bearish ones.

With the euro near a six-month low and a December rate hike from the Federal Reserve looking likely just as the European Central Bank hints at more stimulus, things are looking familiar to Carsten Hilck at Union Investment in Frankfurt. He’s already enjoyed an 8 percent rally since buying German stocks last month.

“It’s certainly deja vu for us: when the euro goes down, the DAX goes up,” said Hilck, whose $1 billion UniDeutschland fund has outperformed 85 percent of peers in the past year. “I’m usually cautious, but I’m sticking to my guns here. Why shouldn’t the index go back to its April levels?”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ak-euro-is-back-and-so-are-german-stock-bulls

I expect Dax rally to continue , income from abroad will mean higher profits for german companies in dollars , as euro gets weaker profits in euro increase.
 
Trading Education Buyer said:
That is a great suggestion .Thank you guys .I am indebted to you.

You are right .I will post trades as I do them.You are a gentleman and a scholar.

View attachment 168732


Open calendar Call Position if you believe the price will stay in resistance for a while but breakout to upside will happen eventually.That is a great suggestion .I think there is an edge in this because prices on indexes don't break down too far from resistance , usuall support kicks in after a short period of time , after a fall.



https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/edge-of-buying-the-stock-market-dip.304496/
More...


Thinking of buying 11300 calendar january spread , sell january buy february around 10250 .

Prices now feb 379.5 , January 288.3 , hoping January expires here at resistance or within 300.Risk 110 potential reward 100.Trade opened

monkey2.jpg
 
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