Technical Analysis = CRAP

[logic_man]

Quote from RCG Trader:

When this HFT first started, I suggested that the answer is simply to pan out of reach of the bots, if they are making that much noise, amplify the signal by panning out for a better view. You would a thought I hit on somebody's wife

Having never been a scalper, I can't say that I noticed a difference. If you are playing for ticks, HFT has probably changed your life, but I'm playing for swings that can last up to a day off of set-ups that take hours to form. HFT is just all the noise "in between" my trades. Don't care about it at all.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from RCG Trader:

Surf, I have asked you the same three questions several times now. Why won't you answer them?

Ask them in a direct question 1 , 2 3 manner and I'll try to answer. I thought your questions were statements in disquise

Thanks

Surf

 

[athlonmank8]

Quote from logic_man:

Yeah, I already said I don't use charts, but whatever. I would love to see you identify, at a better than chance level, charts of assets traded by HFT and assets not traded by HFT. I highly doubt you could identify any difference in the charts. Sort of a "blind taste test".

HFT is just the latest in a long line of boogeymen that people blame for not being able to understand the markets.

lol Very true

 

[Fireplace]

When you have been doing this a long enough time, it's not terribly difficult to spot others, based on the way they describe their approach or mkts in general, that also trade for a living.

Quote from marketsurfer:

How do you know who can trade from claims on a message board?

 

[ProfLogic]

Quote from marketsurfer:

Post a link to the paper and marketing for the event. I would like to see it

Thanks

Surf

It wasn't published. I said it was a presentation.
I don't know if there was any marketing for the gathering and it doesn't matter if there was or wasn't. That was a long time ago.

Didn't you say you were going to take a recess until in July so you could concentrate on your wedding?
Oh, that's right, it isn't a priority.

 

[Lucrum]

Quote from marketsurfer:

How do you know who can trade from claims on a message board?

I think you just invalidated almost every journal on ET, including and especially yours.

 

[james2hunt]

I have back test 564 gapping stocks (most gaps were after earnings/guidance) from 2/7 thru 6/24 with a simple 5min bar strategy. So the first Strategy defined in the video grades the gappers and then trades based on the predicted direction b4 the market opens. The second Strategy just trades the direction of the first 5min bar. See management Strategy for how position is managed this is the same for each Strategy once a position is entered.

Strategy 1
Batting 59% winners and Simple Sharpe 1.8 with 89 trades out of 564

Strategy 2

Batting 56.36% winners and 1.82 Sharpe ratio with 197 trades out of 564 possibles.

So $$ made on a $200/risk per trades were $7988 for first strategy and $14690 for second.

Note these numbers would actually be better with live trading as the back testing takes a conservative approach with regard to the exit strategy.


So as you can see there is little difference in trading the TA view on gaps vs just a random strategy. But there is a difference. Advantage of second strategy is you have 2.5X more trades and so nearly 2X more $$$$$.

See my video for the application that I've built. If interest and you have TWS IB I can make the app open source?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nOglE3wZjGo

One thing all these TA education companies (Pristine, iFundtraders, Affinity, e.t.c e.t.c) dont do is backup their claims with meaningful Stats. Also I note 110 pages of people slamming TA with no stats to back up their claims. At least if you want to bash each other over the head do the work and analysis otherwise you sound like the rest of the educators out there !! LOL

In 9/12mth I will have enough data to present a meaningful sample and result set as my current set only encompasses one earnings season. I will also have completed 1.0 version of my grey box by then.

It is ready for live trading and I plan to go production in July 2week to coincide with earnings season.

TTYL
James

 

[RCG Trader]

Quote from marketsurfer:

Ask them in a direct question 1 , 2 3 manner and I'll try to answer. I thought your questions were statements in disquise

Thanks

Surf

Okay, fair enuf.

1. Some of your knowledge base comes from legendary trader PTJ. Losers average losers. Why do you average down? All backtested sims that I am aware indicate that sooner or later, you are going to blow up. Why do you do this and still speak of quantifiable results?

2. Your system seems to have no objective parameters that can be gleaned from your impressive database of trades you have left on this site. Why is this?

3. Why do you attempt to pick exact tops and bottoms, when research that I have seen indicates that this also not the best idea statistically?

BTW, surf, I like you as a person, anybody that listens to Coast cannot be all bad

But you seem to speak heavily of quantifiable edges and even if you found one, you could still blow it up using controversial money management techs. I would like you to clarify these three things for myself and the hundreds of lurkers that I know we have to this debate.

 

[RCG Trader]

Quote from james2hunt:

I have back test 564 gapping stocks (most gaps were after earnings/guidance) from 2/7 thru 6/24 with a simple 5min bar strategy. So the first Strategy defined in the video grades the gappers and then trades based on the predicted direction b4 the market opens. The second Strategy just trades the direction of the first 5min bar. See management Strategy for how position is managed this is the same for each Strategy once a position is entered.

Strategy 1
Batting 59% winners and Simple Sharpe 1.8 with 89 trades out of 564

Strategy 2

Batting 56.36% winners and 1.82 Sharpe ratio with 197 trades out of 564 possibles.

So $$ made on a $200/risk per trades were $7988 for first strategy and $14690 for second.

Note these numbers would actually be better with live trading as the back testing takes a conservative approach with regard to the exit strategy.


So as you can see there is little difference in trading the TA view on gaps vs just a random strategy. But there is a difference. Advantage of second strategy is you have 2.5X more trades and so nearly 2X more $$$$$.

See my video for the application that I've built. If interest and you have TWS IB I can make the app open source?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nOglE3wZjGo

One thing all these TA education companies (Pristine, iFundtraders, Affinity, e.t.c e.t.c) dont do is backup their claims with meaningful Stats. Also I note 110 pages of people slamming TA with no stats to back up their claims. At least if you want to bash each other over the head do the work and analysis otherwise you sound like the rest of the educators out there !! LOL

In 9/12mth I will have enough data to present a meaningful sample and result set as my current set only encompasses one earnings season. I will also have completed 1.0 version of my grey box by then.

It is ready for live trading and I plan to go production in July 2week to coincide with earnings season.

TTYL
James

If you keep posting the exact same post you will be seen as a spammer. ET takes a dim view on this, just a heads up, bruh.

 

[ProfLogic]

Quote from RCG Trader:

When this HFT first started, I suggested that the answer is simply to pan out of reach of the bots, if they are making that much noise, amplify the signal by panning out for a better view. You would a thought I hit on somebody's wife

That is because you made a statement they didn't understand. Don't want them to look silly, don't ya know. They don't know how to "tune out the noise" and don't want to learn or even verify that one can do it.