Technical Analysis = CRAP

[BlackBison]

Quote from jsfsn:

I'll bump this. Two of many papers that show that TA works. Keep in mind that the researchers probably has less skill than a lot of traders.

There are plenty of academic studies from reputable sources showing TA both does and doesn't work. This is why I do not like focusing on statistics too much- you can prove anything you want if you skew data in certain ways.

The point is there are many very successful traders who have made alot of money trading ONLY technicals over the years. That is all that matters. Who cares what the research papers say? The facts speak for themselves.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from jsfsn:

I'll bump this. Two of many papers that show that TA works. Keep in mind that the researchers probably has less skill than a lot of traders.

There are multiple flaws in both those papers. The st Louis fed paper is ok but the other one is very poorly done--- where was it published--- third tier hack literature review journal?

In addition, the fed paper explains that the research supporting TA uses smoothed journal mean regression data such as Lo at MIT. This clearly moves the research into the theoretical realm. In addition, the fed study states that data snoping and data mining were not accounted for pre mid 1990, just when TA stopped working. LOL!

The conclusion of the paper are also very sketcy: is it central bank intervention? Seriously, the research that clearly shows that TA doesn't work is much more rigerous. I wouldnt hang my hat on either of those papers.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from BlackBison:



The point is there are many very successful traders who have made alot of money trading ONLY technicals over the years. That is all that matters. Who cares what the research papers say? The facts speak for themselves.

Who are they? I don't see any in the Forbes 400 or even anywhere. I would venture to say that their are no TA "ver successful" trades who use strictly charts. If there were, where are they and why is it only ones selling stuff that seem to make money?

Of course, there are lots of wealthy folks who use TA, but they became wealthy other ways.

The best of the best TA strict traders struggle to make beta let alone alpha.

 

[Fireplace]

You only define success as being in the Forbes 40? How about traders who make high 6/low 7 figure incomes?

Quote from marketsurfer:

Who are they? I don't see any in the Forbes 400 or even anywhere. I would venture to say that their are no TA "ver successful" trades who use strictly charts. If there were, where are they and why is it only ones selling stuff that seem to make money?

Of course, there are lots of wealthy folks who use TA, but they became wealthy other ways.

The best of the best TA strict traders struggle to make beta let alone alpha.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Fireplace:

You only define success as being in the Forbes 4O0 How about traders who make high 6/low 7 figure incomes?

No, of course not. Tha ts just an extreme example.

It depends on those traders AUM if they are just making beta or truly producing alpha.

The only ones I have ever seen made money in other businesses, have wealthy wives or families or are vendors.

 

[Fireplace]

There are a lot of people in this world, I'm sure you haven't met the vast majority of them (me neither of course)

Quote from marketsurfer:



The only ones I have ever seen made money in other businesses, have wealthy wives or families or are vendors.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Fireplace:

There are a lot of people in this world, I'm sure you haven't met the vast majority of them (me neither of course)

True

But I do know many in the financial world--- once again, why don't prop shops ( the ones that only make money from your profits) teach TA as an edge? Why do FX shops who make money when you lose have extensive free TA resources for the asking?

Furthermore, all I get is excuses and bizarre attacks/claims when I request a demonstration of TA working for just one month in real time.

Surf

Ps. Are you a vendor or trading psychologist or trading book author?

 

[Maverickz]

Quote from marketsurfer:

No, of course not. Tha ts just an extreme example.

It depends on those traders AUM if they are just making beta or truly producing alpha.

The only ones I have ever seen made money in other businesses, have wealthy wives or families or are vendors.

Think about this too, being successful at trading doesn't automatically make a person famous. The famous "traders" are the ones that are selling something else. I would wager that many of the most successful traders are never known by the general public.

 

[Fireplace]

Have you even read my posts?? I've said several times that i am NOT a vendor and do not PM me for help because I just trade, that's all I do.

You won't get a vicious attack from me, just merely pointing out that just because you haven't met someone who uses TA successfully and over a long period of time doesn't mean your conclusions on the subject are correct.

As far as posting trades, most of the day I wait, but when things align I have to get in and work my trades. I don't have time to post as those moments before a trade are critical. The rest of the time I am monitoring the action and waiting for my next setup. If you can't understand that, well not much else I can say. Also, posting live trades is something one would do when either they are a noob and looking for advice/help OR someone who is trying to gain credibility to eventually sell a service....of which I am neither.

Quote from marketsurfer:



Furthermore, all I get is excuses and bizarre attacks/claims when I request a demonstration of TA working for just one month in real time.

Surf

Ps. Are you a vendor or trading psychologist or trading book author?

 

[cvds16]

Why would anyone in their right mind trading his own capital making big money shout about it ... unless he has an ego problem ...
pour vivre mieux vivons caché has always been the saying for people with some common sense ...