Technical Analysis = CRAP

[emg]

Quote from jsfsn:

@marketsurfer
I'v posted twice in this thread hoping you would address some of the arguments I brought up (if one can call them that...). Here are two papers that I would like you to comment on:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2011/2011-001.pdf
http://www.technicalanalysis.org.uk/technical-analysis.pdf

The TED-talk linked here earlier does not argue that TA does not work. All patterns are not constructed/fake (as in not working to predict price movements) and may repeat them self more often than others.

To bring the favor over to the trader counting spreads / commission is not the same thing, however. I'm not convinced that someone can make consistent profit using TA, but I do believe that you can set a probability on price.

think about this. Has any of your TA works? Can you explain why more than 90% of small traders lose in a "Spectacular Fashion."

If a trader has $1 million in his account and begin 1 contract in let say crude oil, can he make money without using the chart?. All he has to do is:

10 cents profit target. If crude goes against him, he add 1 contract. if it continues to go against him, he add another contract and so on. If crude did not hit his profit target at the close, then he will swing trade until crude hit his profit target.

It is very possible to make $100K profit per month trading crude with a $1 million account. And guess what, with $1 million account and begin trading 1 contract, there is no heat. No heat at all.


Hope this help. Good luck

 

[Neenisti]

Quote from marketsurfer:

You don't seem to get it.

Arch ( the guy with the 50 year old analysis ) has (had) the number one most ACCURATE newsletter for multiple years--independently verified and proven by those who do such things.

the age of something doesn't matter. It doesn't matter if you use an iPad or your multi tasking, tablet computer--- if it works, it works.

By using ARCH as an example, I am proving a point.

If you don't get it, I am not going to explain it.

thanks,

surf


thanks,

surf

Your hardware doesn't matter, you are correct.

I said comparing astrological analysis to technical analysis isn't an accurate statement.
ARCH was accurate and profitable, wonderful. He had an edge that he understood and could utilize. Is there only one edge in the world that works, absolutely not. You are a perfect example of that. That is an ignorant statement. I have an edge that works for me. I've seen others with edges and with long profitable track records that trade nothing like I do. Do I hop from thread to thread telling them that "just" because they don't trade like I do that it is impossible for them to have an edge? No, that is just as ignorant of a statement. Ignorant, yes but that is exactly what you do. There are lots of different edges that people use some work better than others and some work longer than other. Some fall apart over time and some are timely.

Your ego just can't get past the fact that you are a failed technical trader so since you failed, no one else on earth could possible succeed because no one is smarter or more popular or more intelligent or more "famous" or have more rich friends or travels as much or smells as good as you.

Oh, by the way, you're starting to stutter.

 

[jsfsn]

Quote from emg:

think about this. Has any of your TA works? Can you explain why more than 90% of small traders lose in a "Spectacular Fashion."

If a trader has $1 million in his account and begin 1 contract in let say crude oil, can he make money without using the chart?. All he has to do is:

10 cents profit target. If crude goes against him, he add 1 contract. if it continues to go against him, he add another contract and so on. If crude did not hit his profit target at the close, then he will swing trade until crude hit his profit target.

It is very possible to make $100K profit per month trading crude with a $1 million account. And guess what, with $1 million account and begin trading 1 contract, there is no heat. No heat at all.


Hope this help. Good luck

That sound a bit lik a martingale system, which I believe everyone here agrees is doomed to fail...

 

[Neenisti]

Quote from emg:

think about this. Has any of your TA works? Can you explain why more than 90% of small traders lose in a "Spectacular Fashion."

If a trader has $1 million in his account and begin 1 contract in let say crude oil, can he make money without using the chart?. All he has to do is:

10 cents profit target. If crude goes against him, he add 1 contract. if it continues to go against him, he add another contract and so on. If crude did not hit his profit target at the close, then he will swing trade until crude hit his profit target.

It is very possible to make $100K profit per month trading crude with a $1 million account. And guess what, with $1 million account and begin trading 1 contract, there is no heat. No heat at all.


Hope this help. Good luck

Do you trade?

 

[Maverickz]

Quote from marketsurfer:

You don't seem to get it.

Arch ( the guy with the 50 year old analysis ) has (had) the number one most ACCURATE newsletter for multiple years--independently verified and proven by those who do such things.

I think you just proved MY point. The reason this astrology crap worked was because he had such a large following of people that his "predictions" artificially created supply or demand (depending on the direction he predicted).

I could read chicken bones, tea leaves, or anything else and if I had enough people following my advice my predictions would also come true. The same is true for many of these crappy Penny Stock Prediction reports people are shilling all over the net. The more people that read these stupid reports and blindly follow the recommendations the more accurate they will seem. This is even true of fundamental analysis. If enough people read the fundamentals and think the price should go up then it will.

This is why the market works and why every system has to fail at some point. All of these different philosophies work together to create the market, if everyone wanted to buy at the same time and no one wanted to sale then the market would freeze up. When your particular philosophy is out numbered by orders from participants of a different philosophy then your system will fail.

The key is to understand various philosophies and when to use them in unison and not against one another.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Maverickz:

I think you just proved MY point. The reason this astrology crap worked was because he had such a large following of people that his "predictions" artificially created supply or demand (depending on the direction he predicted).

I could read chicken bones, tea leaves, or anything else and if I had enough people following my advice my predictions would also come true. The same is true for many of these crappy Penny Stock Prediction reports people are shilling all over the net. The more people that read these stupid reports and blindly follow the recommendations the more accurate they will seem. This is even true of fundamental analysis. If enough people read the fundamentals and think the price should go up then it will.

This is why the market works and why every system has to fail at some point. All of these different philosophies work together to create the market, if everyone wanted to buy at the same time and no one wanted to sale then the market would freeze up. When your particular philosophy is out numbered by orders from participants of a different philosophy then your system will fail.

The key is to understand various philosophies and when to use them in unison and not against one another.

I don't disagree in theory

Except the point that ONE person can yield more market moving power than 10,000--

therefore, the amount of followers has nothing to do with it, when the BIG FISH in that particular market decides to move on a whim.

surf

in addition-- why is the crowd always wrong-- by this logic ( and it does make sense in theory) the crowd should always be right.

Correct?

 

[Zr1Trader]

Quote from emg:

think about this. Has any of your TA works? Can you explain why more than 90% of small traders lose in a "Spectacular Fashion."

If a trader has $1 million in his account and begin 1 contract in let say crude oil, can he make money without using the chart?. All he has to do is:

10 cents profit target. If crude goes against him, he add 1 contract. if it continues to go against him, he add another contract and so on. If crude did not hit his profit target at the close, then he will swing trade until crude hit his profit target.

It is very possible to make $100K profit per month trading crude with a $1 million account. And guess what, with $1 million account and begin trading 1 contract, there is no heat. No heat at all.


Hope this help. Good luck

Whats the longest you've been stuck in a position that went against you?

 

[Maverickz]

Quote from marketsurfer:

Except the point that ONE person can yield more market moving power than 10,000--

Right it's not so much the number of followers of a system as it is the number of $$ those followers put into the market based on the system.

For a case study of TA vs Fundamentals where TA won, take a look at Intel (INTC) for April 13, 2010. On April 13th 2010 Intel released a great earnings report which did cause a slight boost in stock price...right up into a typical TA supply (resistance) level. This resulted in massive sell off and despite consistently beating their earnings expectations they still are not back to where they were a year ago.

I guess Fundamentals = Crap too.

 

[d08]

Quote from Neenisti:

Your hardware doesn't matter, you are correct.

I said comparing astrological analysis to technical analysis isn't an accurate statement.
ARCH was accurate and profitable, wonderful. He had an edge that he understood and could utilize. Is there only one edge in the world that works, absolutely not. You are a perfect example of that. That is an ignorant statement. I have an edge that works for me. I've seen others with edges and with long profitable track records that trade nothing like I do. Do I hop from thread to thread telling them that "just" because they don't trade like I do that it is impossible for them to have an edge? No, that is just as ignorant of a statement. Ignorant, yes but that is exactly what you do. There are lots of different edges that people use some work better than others and some work longer than other. Some fall apart over time and some are timely.

Your ego just can't get past the fact that you are a failed technical trader so since you failed, no one else on earth could possible succeed because no one is smarter or more popular or more intelligent or more "famous" or have more rich friends or travels as much or smells as good as you.

Oh, by the way, you're starting to stutter.

This is a great comment, read this twice surf. When you discover a second edge which is significantly different from the first, you realize there must be many out there.

 

[Maverickz]

Quote from Maverickz:

For a case study of TA vs Fundamentals where TA won, take a look at Intel (INTC) for April 13, 2010. On April 13th 2010 Intel released a great earnings report which did cause a slight boost in stock price...right up into a typical TA supply (resistance) level. This resulted in massive sell off and despite consistently beating their earnings expectations they still are not back to where they were a year ago.

I guess Fundamentals = Crap too.

I wanted to add the link to where I first explained this scenario:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3016779#post3016779