Technical Analysis = CRAP
- Thread starter Frits
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So let's use this thread for education, shall we?
In the beginning of February I used my so called gekko pattern and extrapolated it to the daily chart, predicting how the market would behave in the next 3-4 weeks:
This is how it went after 2+ weeks:
..and this is how it looked after 4 weeks:
Compared to how elaborate the pattern was, I think I got it pretty much right....
In the beginning of February I used my so called gekko pattern and extrapolated it to the daily chart, predicting how the market would behave in the next 3-4 weeks:
Quote from Pekelo on Febr 8th:
Hey check this out, here is my medium term prediction for the next 2-3 weeks. I think the daily chart looks like the afternoon part of the gekko pattern, so I drew my expectation:
There is still a 10-15 pts upside left when we top and play a little reversal to the SMA game, eventually going under it. Then we should settle between the BBs and sideways for a week or so...
This is how it went after 2+ weeks:
Quote from Pekelo on Febr 25th:
So let's see how Mr. Gekko did with our medium term, quite elaborate prediction:
My upside top zone of 1335-40 got overshot by 4 points, I deeply apologize for it...
The sideways zone also got much wider (so far 50 points) then my predicted 20-30 pts, and again, I am deeply sorry for that.
Other than that, I got the shape pretty much right... Thank you Mr. Gekko, you will also be invited to the party...
..and this is how it looked after 4 weeks:
Compared to how elaborate the pattern was, I think I got it pretty much right....
You can't be serious, hence my ignoring your "see the ES journal" attempt at proof. In any group, there will be those on runs of success, then others will replace them as they eventually fall by the wayside, you can't be naive enough to think otherwise, right?
Why don't these folks create and post in their own journal as I have done since 2002?
It's the nature of the market to be constantly evolving and changing. Some, very few, may be able to change strategies along with the market, but these individuals are ultra rare on the retail side.
Our big edge in 2008 no longer works, my option arbs that guaranteed monetary back in 2004 no longer work. But when these thing worked, it was magic. However don't extrapolate any edge into the future, they are fleeting.
It shifts modes all the time, obviously faster on faster frames and slower on longer frames but the way in which the mkt trades is consistent all the time, regardless of cycle. People are behind the actions and people are predictable. They do the same things over and over and over again.
I've been doing this since 1998 and the mkt is the same then as it is now, in terms of HOW charts are created via PA.
I've been doing this since 1998 and the mkt is the same then as it is now, in terms of HOW charts are created via PA.
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