Technical Analysis = CRAP

Neenisti · May 1, 2011

Quote from marketsurfer:

hey fritz--

great link from SMB---those guys are definitely on the right track. It's quite humorous debating these folks who believe they have cracked the code-- particullarly those who claim to be able to demonstate it in elaborate ways like 100 markets via videotape when all they really have to do is make live, before the fact calls in ONE market for a few weeks on elite.

here is an interesting video on pseudo science

Why is it that you insist on kicking the sleeping dog? Is your ego that fragile? This type of practice of "calling a cat a dog just because it has four legs" is pretty elementary.

The demonstation he offered was trading live charts not videotape. You just can't seem to comprehend English. And you call yourself a writer? No wonder that hasn't worked out for you.

marketsurfer · May 1, 2011

Quote from RCG Trader:

But people do, surf. It is not hard to make a live before the fact call, a lot of them are made on your journal.

No question. Some of my best friends are chart readers. However, they make a living despite the charts not because of them.

How can one argue with th SMB article or the posted video? Anecdotal evidence I simply not enough and if you think a couple correct guesses by pittsburgh's finest Pekelo is convincing, think again.

Seriously, think about the responses here--- wait for September, I'll bet you, 100 markets. All complications to a very easy task. What are they afraid of?

Surf

failed_trad3r · May 1, 2011

Quote from Neenisti:

I'm not attacking the messenger, you attack yourself with your name and I'm just agreeing with your choice of nicknames.

Let me rephrase what I meant: it is interesting that you try to divert attention to anything other than the subject matter at hand.

jsfsn · May 1, 2011

@marketsurfer
I have read most of this thread but admittedly not everything. I also read an older thread that was started back in 2007 which brought up the same thing.

Do you believe that TA work at all? There was a recent paper published which claimed that the market paid attention to support and resistance as well as a couple of other patterns but that the success rate has been declining for the last 10 years or so. Can you comment on that? A similar paper which came to the same conclusion although I think they used MA's and filters instead: "Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market".

I'm agnostic when it comes to TA and I'm not trying to prove you wrong. I like the discussion, and I as well has never seen hard fact of a consistent profitable TA trader...

Neenisti · May 1, 2011

Quote from RCG Trader:

But people do, surf. It is not hard to make a live before the fact call, a lot of them are made on your journal.

Yes, by people other than him using TA.

marketsurfer · May 1, 2011

Quote from Neenisti:

Why is it that you insist on kicking the sleeping dog? Is your ego that fragile? This type of practice of "calling a cat a dog just because it has four legs" is pretty elementary.

The demonstation he offered was trading live charts not videotape. You just can't seem to comprehend English. And you call yourself a writer? No wonder that hasn't worked out for you.

As the spokesperson for the guru, why is he obfuscating and delaying the demonstration in real time. We are anxiously awaiting.

Th trading of live charts videotaped and streamed. Your words not mine.

What's your real name and the name of your guru?

Neenisti · May 1, 2011

Quote from failed_trad3r:

Let me rephrase what I meant: it is interesting that you try to divert attention to anything other than the subject matter at hand.

I'm a successful day trader and have been for 8 years. I have no other job.

You, on the other hand and by your own admission, are a failed trader. Enough said.

Neenisti · May 1, 2011

Quote from marketsurfer:

As the spokesperson for the guru, why is he obfuscating and delaying the demonstration in real time. We are anxiously awaiting.

Th trading of live charts videotaped and streamed. Your words not mine.

What's your real name and the name of your guru?

First he's a system developer not a guru. He doesn't teach, he just trades.
Second, you are the only one obfuscating this situation. He was quite clear and direct on what he offered to show you.
I'm just passing on the information. That will stop now.
It's obvious what he told me about you is true. You are certifiable and your only aim is to cause problems and create arguments.

I now completely understand why your journalism career failed. You aren't bright enough to understand English and evidently aren't smart enough to understand the process of programming either. Interesting since you tell everyone what a math whiz you are.

I passed on that he wanted you to videotape the live trading. Do you find lying is a good way to improve on your already tarnished reputation?

Who I am isn't important. More obfuscation? Go back to your failed journal where you belong.

RCG Trader · May 1, 2011

Quote from marketsurfer:

No question. Some of my best friends are chart readers. However, they make a living despite the charts not because of them.

How can one argue with th SMB article or the posted video? Anecdotal evidence I simply not enough and if you think a couple correct guesses by pittsburgh's finest Pekelo is convincing, think again.

Seriously, think about the responses here--- wait for September, I'll bet you, 100 markets. All complications to a very easy task. What are they afraid of?

Surf

Here is the thing about calls Surf, anyone can make them, it can attributed to luck by the skeptic, no matter how many are made. Also, since many traders come out of the IT world, there is a fear of reverse engineering. Most traders will not make TA calls on the instruments that they trade, no way, no how. They will demonstrate principles, as I did with F, but I am not going to post enuf data for you to reverse engineer my stuff, just as you will not post the reasons for your entries.

Just sayin.

Maverickz · May 1, 2011

I only read the first and last pages of this silly thread but I don't see anyone who has gotten the answer correct yet.

There is NO analysis that is 100% correct, Technical, Fundamental or otherwise. The most common types of analysis work but only because they are self fulfilling prophesies. Think about it. Everyone knows the market goes up when demand is greater than supply and drops when supply is greater than demand but what causes this supply and demand? Analysis! If enough people are using the same indicators and/or analysis they all start buying at about the same point thus creating artificial demand driving price up. This of course fails when fundamentals or some other form of analysis seems to indicate that it is time to sell and generates a greater amount of supply. Someone who understands these market forces and how they interact can use these to predict at a much greater than 50/50 chance what the "masses" are going to be doing at certain price levels. So in short TA does work if you know how to use it, but only because enough people believe it works.