Technical Analysis = CRAP

marketsurfer · Apr 28, 2011

Quote from d08:

A hedge fund you worked for, I feel sorry for the investors.
Trading for a hedge fund is not the same because of scalability, trading with 10m or 10k is very different.

Don't feel sorry. We were up over 70% when I was there, I had nothing to do with the trading.

The perspective traders were funded with 10k to prove their ability, all but one failed

Surf

Neenisti · Apr 28, 2011

Quote from marketsurfer:

While there are folks who apparently, if they are to be be believed, who can subjectively use TA for profits. As well as others like my friend David Aronson who objectively test TA sometimes finding a very slight advantage at times- however NONE are super successful the same thing can be said about astrology. Some folks make it a science and a complicated one at that, others apply it subjectively. Think of Arch Crawford. That guy had the most successful news letter for years and all his calls were based on astrology. He also worked inside a big bank-- forget which one and has quite the pedigree on the Street. How do you explain this?

I do know, the last hedge fund I worked with, had over 100 traders thru the door-- all were vetted and all showed proven track records prior to being tested for employment--- out of the 100 plus only one proved profitable when funded. Plus his edge had nothing to do with TA in any stretch of the definition

Any noobs here, turn off your PM boxes because you will likely get solicited by those posing as "helpers" "mentors" or "masters" Be very cautious and never send your money to someone claiming to help you for a fee or whatever the scheme happens to be. These people can be insidiously crafty, just like the market itself.

I have never met a wealthy TAnalyst who made his money from trading. There are plenty of bored rich guys who use TA but I venture to say not one got wealthy from TA.

The truth needs to be told in this business.

We actually agree on something. Anyone that PM's you regarding teaching you anything, immediately tell the Moderators and put the person on ignore.

You just made my point in my previous statement though. Your "friends" are the only experts on TA even though they are only marginally successful. "No one else could never accomplish what they did. Everyone on this board is an idiot and could ever be as smart as the people I know."

You've probably never met a successful TA person because once they know you exist they don't want to meet you.

marketsurfer · Apr 28, 2011

Quote from Neenisti:

We actually agree on something. Anyone that PM's you regarding teaching you anything, immediately tell the Moderators and put the person on ignore.

You just made my point in my previous statement though. Your "friends" are the only experts on TA even though they are only marginally successful. "No one else could never accomplish what they did. Everyone on this board is an idiot and could ever be as smart as the people I know."

You've probably never met a successful TA person because once they know you exist they don't want to meet you.

Bottom line is I know several of the top guys in the world in this business. I really don't care what you believe.

Let me ask you this, why doesn't Bright Trading or the other top prop firms teach TA as a primary trading method? They may mention it and use it as illustrative but it's rarely used to make actual trade decisions. WHY??

However, FX dealers who PROFIT from your losses have extensive TA education departments, provide free tools, charts, etc. ???

Seriously, how could things be any more obvious?

By the way, I would love to interview a TA person who got wealthy strictly by TA. Been looking for 10 years.

Pekelo · Apr 28, 2011

Quote from marketsurfer:

Replace the termTA with guessing, astrology, faith healers, or card readers in this post.

What's wrong with guessing? That's what you seem to be using in your journal, so... oh, nevermind....

And astrology? If it was good for Nancy Reagen affecting national policy, it is good for me....

Faith healers? Have you heard of placebo effect? Wasn't Jesus also a faith healer? All sounds real to me....

Quote from marketsurfer:

By the way, I would love to interview a TA person who got wealthy strictly by TA. Been looking for 10 years.

You heard of PTJ, call him up....

d08 · Apr 28, 2011

Quote from marketsurfer:

Don't feel sorry. We were up over 70% when I was there, I had nothing to do with the trading.

The perspective traders were funded with 10k to prove their ability, all but one failed

Surf

That fund was up 70% for the year, since inception or....?
10k? They wasted their time dealing with 10k? They must've been really desperate for any kind of job.

marketsurfer · Apr 28, 2011

Quote from d08:

That fund was up 70% for the year, since inception or....?
10k? They wasted their time dealing with 10k? They must've been really desperate for any kind of job.

For the year. It was a FOF product and several of the funds knocked it out of the park.

The CIO thought it was worthwhile to start a in house trading operation along with the FOF at the time--- hence trying to weed out the phonys from the real traders. Out of 100 plus with verified records only one succeeded.

Neenisti · Apr 28, 2011

Quote from marketsurfer:

Let me ask you this, why doesn't Bright Trading or the other top prop firms teach TA as a primary trading method? They may mention it and use it as illustrative but it's rarely used to make actual trade decisions. WHY??

However, FX dealers who PROFIT from your losses have extensive TA education departments, provide free tools, charts, etc. ???

Seriously, how could things be any more obvious?

By the way, I would love to interview a TA person who got wealthy strictly by TA. Been looking for 10 years.

I talked to Bright in Vegas last year. I was not impressed in the least. They have no research people. Nothing cutting edge, with all of the new technology out there they might as well be trading on P III's. I asked them about cloud computing and the guy looked me like I was smoking pot. I would call their style of trading as "Spaghetti Trading". Throw the FA on the wall and see what sticks. Are they successful? Marginally. Are their days numbered, absolutely.

There is no comparison between the slimy FOREX dealers and actually successful TA Traders. I suppose all car dealers are slimy because they sell used cars too, huh? Gotta watch out for slimy used car salesmen, right?

In regards to your interviewing a successful TA trader, see my previous post regarding them wanting to meet you. That being said, I know someone that has an ego almost as big as yours that might want to talk to you. I'll ask him.

rallycar · Apr 28, 2011

Technical Analisis and Indicators punted on web sites will not make any one person a consistently profitable trader. As someone mentioned earlier the traders making consistent money actually have learnt to love the scammers who herd the sheep in certain directions with their indicators, and the smart guys are capitalising on that by working out their own tools. I dont use indicators that you will find on web sites, but all of you that do please please continue.

Fireplace · Apr 28, 2011

This explains a lot, and I don't mean that to be mean but moreso for my own perspective on your posts going fwd with regards to actual trading.

Quote from marketsurfer:

Don't feel sorry. We were up over 70% when I was there, I had nothing to do with the trading.

etile · Apr 28, 2011

Quote from marketsurfer:

Really? If you could increase your actual odds of success above 50/50 on every entry, you would become the house effectively cornering any market given enough capital.

The OP makes sense.

Too many people focus on probability and not the payout. If I am getting 2:1 odds for my money with 40% chance of winning, I am taking that bet every day.