Technical Analysis = CRAP
- Thread starter Frits
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I'm asking where you pulled the 50% up/ 50% down statistic from, not a 50% win rate. A 50% win rate is actually a pretty exceptional accomplishment if you have a decent W/L ratio.
And sure, blindly entering fixed stops and profit targets without regard to market conditions is almost certainly doomed to fail, but what does that have to do with technical analysis?
The OP bought a course, that tells something about him. Did you question why the person was selling his edge and not trade himself?
Those who can, do; those who can't, tech - it applies perfectly here.
The market drifts up slowly, so the odds are never 50/50, perhaps more like 52/48 or something similar.
The "cut your losers, let the winners run" mantra is another half-truth. This implies all instruments have strong autocorrelation, that's simply not true. With many strategies you would be left with the winners-turned-losers and had sold the losers-turned-winners.
Most books are useless when it comes to trading methods.
Altucher's book is a complete waste of time - it can be used as an example how NOT to do backtesting. Trading systems with 20-30 trade history cannot be used, simple as that.
Newbies reading ET - don't believe most of the stuff you read here, doesn't matter how convincing and experienced the guy sounds. Find it out by yourself.
Those who can, do; those who can't, tech - it applies perfectly here.
The market drifts up slowly, so the odds are never 50/50, perhaps more like 52/48 or something similar.
The "cut your losers, let the winners run" mantra is another half-truth. This implies all instruments have strong autocorrelation, that's simply not true. With many strategies you would be left with the winners-turned-losers and had sold the losers-turned-winners.
Most books are useless when it comes to trading methods.
Altucher's book is a complete waste of time - it can be used as an example how NOT to do backtesting. Trading systems with 20-30 trade history cannot be used, simple as that.
Newbies reading ET - don't believe most of the stuff you read here, doesn't matter how convincing and experienced the guy sounds. Find it out by yourself.
What's up with this gonzo hate vibe?? Go back in the kitchen and cook up something tasty, relax!
Although might be entertaining, this is usually one of the most worthless threads on ET. Why?
Because it is overgeneralizing. Anybody who makes such a broad statement like the OP, is a lovable moron. I usually use the surgery analogy. Saying anything about TA is like overgeneralizing about surgery. There are so many different types, you don't treat them all at once, period. Some are successful, some aren't. Some are dangerous, some aren't.
Some TA don't work, some do. Obviously, nothing works all the time. Once you guys recognize this, you will stop arguing about it. Generally it is a stupid thing to do, unless you specify one particular type of TA (or surgery if you wish).
By the way until now I haven't made an argument in this thread, I only showed examples...
Because it is overgeneralizing. Anybody who makes such a broad statement like the OP, is a lovable moron. I usually use the surgery analogy. Saying anything about TA is like overgeneralizing about surgery. There are so many different types, you don't treat them all at once, period. Some are successful, some aren't. Some are dangerous, some aren't.
Some TA don't work, some do. Obviously, nothing works all the time. Once you guys recognize this, you will stop arguing about it. Generally it is a stupid thing to do, unless you specify one particular type of TA (or surgery if you wish).
By the way until now I haven't made an argument in this thread, I only showed examples...
While there are folks who apparently, if they are to be be believed, who can subjectively use TA for profits. As well as others like my friend David Aronson who objectively test TA sometimes finding a very slight advantage at times- however NONE are super successful the same thing can be said about astrology. Some folks make it a science and a complicated one at that, others apply it subjectively. Think of Arch Crawford. That guy had the most successful news letter for years and all his calls were based on astrology. He also worked inside a big bank-- forget which one and has quite the pedigree on the Street. How do you explain this?
I do know, the last hedge fund I worked with, had over 100 traders thru the door-- all were vetted and all showed proven track records prior to being tested for employment--- out of the 100 plus only one proved profitable when funded. Plus his edge had nothing to do with TA in any stretch of the definition
Any noobs here, turn off your PM boxes because you will likely get solicited by those posing as "helpers" "mentors" or "masters" Be very cautious and never send your money to someone claiming to help you for a fee or whatever the scheme happens to be. These people can be insidiously crafty, just like the market itself.
I have never met a wealthy TAnalyst who made his money from trading. There are plenty of bored rich guys who use TA but I venture to say not one got wealthy from TA.
The truth needs to be told in this business.
I do know, the last hedge fund I worked with, had over 100 traders thru the door-- all were vetted and all showed proven track records prior to being tested for employment--- out of the 100 plus only one proved profitable when funded. Plus his edge had nothing to do with TA in any stretch of the definition
Any noobs here, turn off your PM boxes because you will likely get solicited by those posing as "helpers" "mentors" or "masters" Be very cautious and never send your money to someone claiming to help you for a fee or whatever the scheme happens to be. These people can be insidiously crafty, just like the market itself.
I have never met a wealthy TAnalyst who made his money from trading. There are plenty of bored rich guys who use TA but I venture to say not one got wealthy from TA.
The truth needs to be told in this business.
Quote from Pekelo:
Although might be entertaining, this is usually one of the most worthless threads on ET. Why?
Because it is overgeneralizing. Anybody who makes such a broad statement like the OP, is a lovable moron. I usually use the surgery analogy. Saying anything about TA is like overgeneralizing about surgery. There are so many different types, you don't treat them all at once, period. Some are successful, some aren't. Some are dangerous, some aren't.
Some TA don't work, some do. Obviously, nothing works all the time. Once you guys recognize this, you will stop arguing about it. Generally it is a stupid thing to do, unless you specify one particular type of TA (or surgery if you wish).
By the way until now I haven't made an argument in this thread, I only showed examples...
Replace the termTA with guessing, astrology, faith healers, or card readers in this post. The conclusion remains the same
Same
I don't hate you. I'm just bothered by hypocrites. If you were actually sincere about helping people that would be outstanding but you aren't. I'd just like you to be honest for a change. People would like you more, not that you care.
I hate cooking by the way too. Not eating, just cooking.
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