Technical Analysis = CRAP

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Quote from Fireplace:

Yes but my entries are entered when the mkt isn't 'random'. I don't get entry signals when things aren't clear...but when they are, I take my shots. And I know from my metrics that my system works well and has for over a decade. I'm sure there are others here too that experience the same things with their entry and exit signals.

Who trades when the mkt isn't giving any real indication of anything?
And notice the bait-and-switch surf loves to engage in. He admits the market is only quasi-random when backed into a corner, but then he'll insist you only have a 50% chance of having a correct entry because the market is actually fully random! No telling when or if he'll ever stop trying to have it both ways.
 
Quote from kut2k2:

And notice the bait-and-switch surf loves to engage in. He admits the market is only quasi-random when backed into a corner, but then he'll insist you only have a 50% chance of having a correct entry because the market is actually fully random! No telling when or if he'll ever stop trying to have it both ways.

Do you know what Quasi random means? If you did, I think you would see that I am not being contradictory
 
I have such a system and I do trade in size in both the ES and the SPY....but only when I have the odds really in my favor. Sometimes that's only twice a day, other times its like 8 or more.

I trade not because I have to anymore but because I fully love it and can't imagine doing anything else. Maybe when I get older I will slow down and find other interests that capture my attention like trading but that is at least 15 years away.


Quote from marketsurfer:

I'm not doubting you-- I firmly believe the market can be beat despite it's Quasi random nature. However, my question is, what prevents you from ramping up to huge size thus becoming extraordinarily wealthy? I don't know that you are not, but I do know you are still trading...... I know I would if I had such a system....
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

I'm not doubting you-- I firmly believe the market can be beat despite it's Quasi random nature. However, my question is, what prevents you from ramping up to huge size thus becoming extraordinarily wealthy? I don't know that you are not, but I do know you are still trading...... I know I would if I had such a system....
Somebody offers you a coin flip bet: if you lose, you lose your bet; if you win, you win double your bet. The coin is unbiased. You clearly have an edge. Will you go all in and bet your life savings? If not, why not?
 
Quote from Smart Money:

But if you're using relative strength metrics to make money, aren't you using T.A. ???

S M

I guess it depends on what you're definition of TA is. I tend to look at it as chart patterns and indicators. I use prices on an instrument, relative to the prices of other instruments. I try to buy what has been moving up lately. That's all. Some might say that's a form of price action I guess. A market timer might be a better term???

I am not a buy and hold advocate, or a fundemental guy, and I do believe the market can be beaten.
 
Quote from Fireplace:

I have such a system and I do trade in size in both the ES and the SPY....but only when I have the odds in my really in my favor. Sometimes that's only twice a day, other times its like 8 or more.

I trade not because I have to anymore but because I fully love it and can't imagine doing anything else. Maybe when I get older I will slow down and find other interests that capture my attention like trading but that is at least 15 years away.


Excellent. I wish you the best!!
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Do you know what Quasi random means? If you did, I think you would see that I am not being contradictory
Yes you are. Quasi-random means only partly random. In the case of the market, the randomness is a variable over time that ranges from overwhelming to virtually nonexistent. It comes and goes. YOU act as if it is always present and will always nullify any entry strategy that seeks to go with the trend, and your position makes no sense.
 
Excellent :)

Quote from kut2k2:

In the case of the market, the randomness is a variable over time that ranges from overwhelming to virtually nonexistent. It comes and goes.
 
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