Technical Analysis = CRAP

[RCG Trader]

Quote from Fireplace:

You must be invited to the wedding? If not, you should re-think your friendship

The Surf-fest will do, and he has invited me and MyGirl to it. So I am quite happy with that.

I think Surf is a true gladiator, and I have no problem with that. Some will question his ethics, but in business and war there is only one goal.

To win.

If you not a natural warrior, that will be difficult to grasp.

Edit: Not directed at you Fireplace. I follow you also.

 

[ProfLogic]

Quote from Wayne Gibbous:

You know, of course, that much of what Surfy is doing is to try and incite you to "prove" that you have a successful method. What do you think will happen to your system after it is "checked and tested?"

So now here is Prof sending along his stuff...

He can check it.
He can test it.
He can prove to himself it works.
He can't hack it.
He could duplicate it but it would take him 5 years to figure it out even if all of his quant and heavy math people helped him.

Thanks for your concern though.

 

[piezoe]

Quote from Frits:

It surprises me that some traders still have the illusion that by using technical analysis they are able to predict the direction of the market.

Let's say for the sake of the subject that today some brilliant mind came up with an indicator that indeed is able to predict the market. Let's call this indicator "moneymaker" ! Now don't go running to the fridge to get that bottle of Dom Perignon just yet...

A) At a certain point in time (let's call this "T") the moneymaker signals that the market is about to go up!

You buy and with that you enter a long position. Smart move because the moneymaker signals a rising price.

B) At T+11 (or 19, 37 or 76) the moneymaker signals that the market is about to go down again.

You sell and with that you close your long position and collect your profits. Smart move since the moneymaker just signals a falling price. Profits in the pocket open that Dom Perignon the sabrage way (with a sword)! Or...

All seems very logic right?
Now I have two questions for you:
1. Who is dumb enough to sell in situation A? Would you sell? Who the f*ck is going short while the moneymaker, the brilliant technical indicator indicates that prices are going to rise!? So you can buy all you want, but there is no seller!
2. Who is dumb enough to buy in situation B? Would you buy? Who the h*ll is going long while the moneymaker indicates that prices are falling!? So you can sell all you want, but there is no buyer!

If, yes IF technical analysis is able to predict the market, that same magical ability would kill the ability to predict the direction of the market by itself.

Whenever you enter the market you have a 50% that it goes up and a 50% chance that it goes down. The trick is to limit your losses and ALWAYS let your profits run.

Quit following the advice on the use of TA that all the scammers on the internet try to give you in return for hundreds or thousands of dollars. They are the ones that failed in becoming profitable by trading. And now they are trying to make money by teaching you about technical indicators. Apart from the fact that it is useless, the info on TA is also to be found for free on the internet.

Shaka !

Frits Altenburg
P.s. this advice was for free

You'll get no argument from me by pointing out the obvious presence of all manner of scam artists surrounding the markets, and oozing out of every nook and cranny. The markets are the refuge for liars, cheats, and thieves, as well as astute traders.

You have grossly underestimated, however, the amount of dumb money trading in the market casinos!

Technical analysis works fine for me. I am grateful for those who think as you but also trade, or try to. Without you and your ilk we traders would have far fewer to take the other side of our bets.

 

[Fireplace]

I agree RCG, and I see Mktsurfer as having great strength in what he does. My only gripe is he likes to interject and show some of that strength in an arena that he doesn't know very well.

I may come off a certain way when it comes to day trading, but that's only because it's an area that I know well because I have a lot of experience. I wouldn't speak definitively about swing trading or investing or something completely outside of my niche because I realize that my knowledge is limited.

Either way, regardless of Surfs attitude sometimes, I wish him only the best.


P.S. ISM!

Quote from RCG Trader:

The Surf-fest will do, and he has invited me and MyGirl to it. So I am quite happy with that.

I think Surf is a true gladiator, and I have no problem with that. Some will question his ethics, but in business and war there is only one goal.

To win.

If you not a natural warrior, that will be difficult to grasp.

Edit: Not directed at you Fireplace. I follow you also.

 

[bone]

 

[ProfLogic]

Quote from Samsara:

IProflogic: you already know about his sockpuppet behavior -- what makes you think his intentions are noble in the slightest in evaluating your code? And why would the opinion of someone like that matter to you?

Shelf your damaged pride a moment over their attempts to smear you and consider the cost benefit of that choice.

I will just say it is personal. Is it smart? Probably not but I want the satisfaction of proving to him there ia some TA that works.

I do agree with you though.

 

[ProfLogic]

Quote from Rodney King:

I hear they're honeymooning in St. Marys, Ohio, on the shores of Grand Lake.

They have an algae bloom going on. Not a fun place . . . except for this weekend.

4TH OF JULY!!!

 

[Samsara]

Quote from ProfLogic:

I will just say it is personal. Is it smart? Probably not but I want the satisfaction of proving to him there ia some TA that works.

I do agree with you though.

I just think that is a small and momentary payoff at best and a large risk to your IP and the edge itself at worst. At the very least, lock it all down with an iron-clad NDA.

Not a day ago he was sneering in delight at Covel's attempt to better himself by naming and mocking you in his own book. These are small people whose need to be seen as great authorities comes from some deep-seated lack in their own characters. I recognize it's a personal insult to be openly mocked by an ostensible "public figure" like Covel, but don't give them access to your work and thereby stoop to justify their behavior.

If it helps, just the way you've expressed yourself here I think is convincing enough to disinterested observers.

 

[ProfLogic]

Quote from Samsara:

I just think that is a small and momentary payoff at best and a large risk to your IP and the edge itself at worst. At the very least, lock it all down with an iron-clad NDA.

Not a day ago he was sneering in delight at Covel's attempt to better himself by naming and mocking you in his own book. These are small people whose need to be seen as great authorities comes from some deep-seated lack in their own characters. I recognize it's a personal insult to be openly mocked by an ostensible "public figure" like Covel, but don't give them access to your work and thereby stoop to justify their behavior.

If it helps, just the way you've expressed yourself here I think is convincing enough to disinterested observers.

You're right.



but


Every dog has his day and my birthday in near.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Samsara:

I agree 100%.

Personally, after reading through this exchange I really have to take back and reserve any critique of Proflogic. Not like my opinion matters a shred of course, and I could not care less if he makes $; I just think he seems earnest and competent, and that's often the best you can get from an internet chat site. This is a noticeable contrast to his interlocutor.

But I think there is absolutely nothing anyone would gain from giving away source code, even if encrypted -- especially to someone like Goodboy.

Keep in mind he duplicated VHS tapes of a <i>PBS documentary</i> and resold it marked up as a collector's item. Proflogic: you already know about his sockpuppet behavior -- what makes you think his intentions are noble in the slightest in evaluating your code? And why would the opinion of someone like that matter to you?

Shelf your damaged pride a moment over their attempts to smear you and consider the cost benefit of that choice.

What is up with the gonzo hate vibe, dude? You are totally out of line and out of control.

That tape "was" extremely rare when I sold copies of my original for $500 plus-- big deal---- how dare you make unfounded allegations and suggestions of my intentions regarding anything

Must be nice to toss crap from behind an alias-- but I have a good idea who I am dealing with.

surf