Quote from Frits:
It surprises me that some traders still have the illusion that by using technical analysis they are able to predict the direction of the market.
Let's say for the sake of the subject that today some brilliant mind came up with an indicator that indeed is able to predict the market. Let's call this indicator "moneymaker"! Now don't go running to the fridge to get that bottle of Dom Perignon just yet...
A) At a certain point in time (let's call this "T") the moneymaker signals that the market is about to go up!
You buy and with that you enter a long position. Smart move because the moneymaker signals a rising price.
B) At T+11 (or 19, 37 or 76) the moneymaker signals that the market is about to go down again.
You sell and with that you close your long position and collect your profits. Smart move since the moneymaker just signals a falling price. Profits in the pocket open that Dom Perignon the sabrage way (with a sword)! Or...
All seems very logic right?
Now I have two questions for you:
1. Who is dumb enough to sell in situation A? Would you sell? Who the f*ck is going short while the moneymaker, the brilliant technical indicator indicates that prices are going to rise!? So you can buy all you want, but there is no seller!
2. Who is dumb enough to buy in situation B? Would you buy? Who the h*ll is going long while the moneymaker indicates that prices are falling!? So you can sell all you want, but there is no buyer!
If, yes IF technical analysis is able to predict the market, that same magical ability would kill the ability to predict the direction of the market by itself.
Whenever you enter the market you have a 50% that it goes up and a 50% chance that it goes down. The trick is to limit your losses and ALWAYS let your profits run.
Quit following the advice on the use of TA that all the scammers on the internet try to give you in return for hundreds or thousands of dollars. They are the ones that failed in becoming profitable by trading. And now they are trying to make money by teaching you about technical indicators. Apart from the fact that it is useless, the info on TA is also to be found for free on the internet.
Shaka!
Frits Altenburg
P.s. this advice was for free
I'll assume the you are a brilliant guy and you have a refrigerator.
I have the signal generator and I gave it away for free.
It does not predict. Prediction is not necessary. Try hard to get out of your mind using OODA (John Boyd) to take signals that you think predict and are worth betting upon to make money.
I do not use money management nor stops and my signal generator sees that the markets have neither noise nor anomalies.
You have situation A and B on your mind so go look at the DOM of any liquid market. My published signal generator works in any market that is liquid.
I do not do entry/exit trades. I am all in from the open to the close of RTH.
Check out the detractors; the people with the fixations who use my name in any way. They HAVE to do the following:
1. enter/exit.
2. bet using OODA
3. use money management out of their fears,
4. use risk manangement to deal with the anxieties.
5. bitch at things they do not understand.
I replaced those things with support, comfort and confidence feelings ALL the time. This comes from knowing that you know ALL of the time.
1. became hold/reversal
2. became MADA
3. became carving turns using 12 leading indicators of price.
4. became banking profit segments according the the market's offer. (sentiment segment after sentiment segment)
5. became helping others to learn for over 50 years.
you need to learn to learn and begin with figuring out how your mind works. You have no perception because you have no inference joining with what you sense. Your mind is empty of facts and information and skills. My mind is fully differentiated. I trade as if I were driving a car. I do not enter or exit my car. Nor do I use money management nor stops. I drive and I reverse. My foot is always with the pedal to the metal. I turn as the road turns for the full 6 1/2 hour drive every day I trade.
A full time trader is a person who has not yet learned to trade to take the market's offer. The offer is so hugh it precludes having to trade full time to satisfy one every need or want.
you can see, simply that this thread is filled with comments from people who trade in a context of fear, anxiety and anger. They have simply been learning failure for years and years. You are too.
Learn to fully differentiate your mind just like you did to learn to drive a car.
TA is the driving force for taking the full offer of the market all of the time the offer is made. Time is not a market variable.
There is zero competition to take the market's offer. Absolutely NO ONE is there to STOP you. Just sit on the correct side of the market all of the time. Follow the OOE. (Order of Events). 1, 2, 3, FTT and repeat. Just one pattern. B2B 2R 2B for long and R2R 2B 2R for short. Do a search and find out.
When I first posted results, Nitro (who blew out) said I photo shopped. How wrong he was. I stopped posting prints.
What I did was post the answers to all questions (or had someone else post the answers) so they would be there for anyone who came up with a question. That era is over.